Pablo Carreno-Busta and Francisco Cerundolo will face off in the semifinal of the Nordea Open for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Saturday at 1:00 pm on CENTRE COURT. Here the head to head stats and relative prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Pablo Carreno-Busta who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Pablo Carreno-Busta is the pick to win this match.
Pablo Carreno-Busta -> 1.56
Francisco Cerundolo -> 2.56
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Prediction and head to head Pablo Carreno-Busta vs. Francisco Cerundolo
There is no head to head record between Pablo Carreno-Busta and Francisco Cerundolo since this will be the first time that they will play each other in the main tour.
Pablo Carreno-Busta
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 41-28 | 25-10 | 14-14 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 10-12 | 7-6 | 2-4 | 1-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 2-5 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 37-25 | 19-8 | 11-9 | 5-5 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 38-18 | 14-8 | 17-4 | 5-4 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 18, Carreno-Busta got to the semifinal after defeating Stan Wawrinka 7-5 6-4, Albert Ramos-Vinolas 4-6 7-65 7-5 and Diego Sebastian Schwartzman 6-1 6-0.
In the quarter, Pablo had a good straight sets win against Schwartzman (6-1 6-0). During the match, Carreno-Busta scored 58 points vs Schwartzman’s 33. Pablo was extremely aggressive to blast 21 winners.
Talking about the service games, Carreno-Busta blasted 2 aces and he was extremely consistent in conceding no double faults. Pablo Carreno-Busta was quite efficient on serve to win 78% (21/27) of his 1st serve and 53% (8/15) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. The Spaniard broke Schwartzman 5 times after converting 36% of his break points (5/14).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Pablo has conceded 1 set in this competition to conquer 53% of the points he played.
Carreno-Busta has a solid win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 64% of his matches (390-218). 10-7 on clay in 2022. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this event, Carreno-Busta has an overall 220-101 match record in the last years on clay.
Pablo’s best result of the current season was reaching the final in Barcelona.
Pablo has an overall 21-15 win-loss record in 2022, 10-7 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Bastad
Francisco Cerundolo
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 38-25 | 12-8 | 21-11 | 5-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 35-31 | 5-10 | 21-13 | 9-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 39-26 | 10-10 | 19-12 | 4-2 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 36-28 | 7-8 | 25-10 | 3-7 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 44-24 | 3-2 | 39-21 | 0-0 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 39 (career-high), Francisco got to the semifinal after beating Pedro Sousa 6-4 6-3, Casper Ruud 6-4 3-6 7-5 and Aslan Karatsev 7-5 6-1.
In the quarter, Francisco had a good straight sets win against Karatsev (7-5 6-1). During the match Cerundolo scored 69 points vs Karatsev’s 56. The Argentine was very aggressive to blast 32 winners.
Talking about serving, Cerundolo made 3 aces and he committed only 4 double faults. Francisco Cerundolo lost the serve twice and he saved 5 break points. Furthermore, Cerundolo put 61% of his first serves in, winning 74% (32/43) of the points behind his 1st serve and 30% (8/27) on the 2nd serve. Cerundolo broke Karatsev 5 times after converting 63% of his break points (5/8).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Cerundolo has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 53% of the points he played.
The Argentine’s best result of the current year was getting to the final in the Santa Cruz de la Sierra Challenger.
Francisco has a compiled 28-17 win-loss record in 2022, 20-9 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Bastad
Previously, his best result was reaching the 1st round in 2021. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Carreno-Busta | Cerundolo |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 3 | 3 |
| Tot Set | 7 | 7 |
| Tot Games | 70 | 69 |
| Pts | 218-190 | 246-219 |
| Total Points | 408 | 465 |
| Winners | 101 | 98 |
| %Winners | 46% | 40% |
Both Carreno-Busta and Cerundolo played 3 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Pablo Carreno-Busta conceded 1 set, while Francisco Cerundolo surrendered 1 set. Talking about their workload, Carreno-Busta and Cerundolo have played the same amount of sets 7. However, Carreno-Busta played 1 game more than Cerundolo. The Spaniard scored 101 winners (46% of the total points). On the other side, The Argentine managed to score 98 winners (40%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Carreno-Busta | Cerundolo |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 10 | 4 |
| Avg per match | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| 1st in | 134/197 | 141/236 |
| %1st in | 68% | 60% |
| 1st pts | 101/134 | 98/141 |
| %1st pts | 75% | 70% |
| 2nd pts | 33/63 | 48/95 |
| %2nd pts | 52% | 51% |
Carreno-Busta recorded 10 aces (3.3 per match). Cerundolo recorded 4 aces (1.3 per match). Carreno-Busta won 75% points on his first serve. He extremely effective on his second serve to win 52% of the points. On the other side, Cerundolo won 70% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 51% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Carreno-Busta | Cerundolo |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 12 | 13 |
| Converted | 12/28 | 13/30 |
| % Converted | 43% | 43% |
| Conceded | 9 | 27 |
| Saved | 4 | 21 |
| % Saved | 44% | 78% |
| Times Broken | 5 | 6 |
Pablo broke his opponents 12 times with a 43% conversion rate. The Spaniard surrendered his serve 5 times and he saved 44% of the break points that he conceded. The Argentine broke his opponents 13 times with a 43% conversion rate. Cerundolo conceded his serve 6 times and he saved 78% of the break points that he conceded.
| Carreno-Busta | |||||
| R1 Wawrinka |
R2 Ramos-Vinolas |
1/4 Schwartzman |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-5 6-4 | 4-6 7-65 7-5 | 6-1 6-0 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 2 | 7 | |
| Tot Games | 22 | 35 | 13 | 70 | |
| pts | 63-56 | 97-101 | 58-33 | 218-190 | |
| Total points | 119 | 198 | 91 | 408 | |
| Winners | 30 | 50 | 21 | 101 | |
| %Winners | 48% | 52% | 36% | 46% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 2 | 6 | 2 | 10 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6 | |
| 1st in | 35/56 | 72/99 | 27/42 | 134/197 | |
| % 1st in | 63% | 73% | 64% | 68% | |
| 1st pts | 30/35 | 50/72 | 21/27 | 101/134 | |
| % 1st pts | 86% | 69% | 78% | 75% | |
| 2nd pts | 14/21 | 11/27 | 8/15 | 33/63 | |
| % 2nd pts | 67% | 41% | 53% | 52% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 2 | 5 | 5 | 12 | |
| Converted | 2/6 | 5/8 | 5/14 | 12/28 | |
| Converted % | 33% | 63% | 36% | 43% | |
| Conceded | 0 | 7 | 2 | 9 | |
| Saved | 0/0 | 2/7 | 2/2 | 4 | |
| Saved % | – | 29% | 100% | 43% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | |
| Cerundolo | |||||
| R1 Sousa |
R2 Ruud |
1/4 Karatsev |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-3 | 6-4 3-6 7-5 | 7-5 6-1 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 2 | 7 | |
| Tot Games | 19 | 31 | 19 | 69 | |
| pts | 78-65 | 99-98 | 69-56 | 246-219 | |
| Total points | 143 | 197 | 125 | 465 | |
| Winners | 29 | 37 | 32 | 98 | |
| %Winners | 37% | 37% | 46% | 40% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | |
| 1st in | 41/62 | 57/104 | 43/70 | 141/236 | |
| % 1st in | 66% | 55% | 61% | 60% | |
| 1st pts | 29/41 | 37/57 | 32/43 | 98/141 | |
| % 1st pts | 71% | 65% | 74% | 70% | |
| 2nd pts | 9/21 | 31/47 | 8/27 | 48/95 | |
| % 2nd pts | 43% | 66% | 30% | 51% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 5 | 3 | 5 | 13 | |
| Converted | 5/13 | 3/9 | 5/8 | 13/30 | |
| Converted % | 38% | 33% | 63% | 43% | |
| Conceded | 9 | 11 | 7 | 27 | |
| Saved | 7/9 | 9/11 | 5/7 | 21 | |
| Saved % | 78% | 82% | 71% | 77% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | |
Head 2 Head
LWLLWWWWLW
LLWWLWLWLL Tennis Scores in Bastad
- Andrey RublevRublev – Laslo DjereDjere (7-5 6-4) – See score progression
- Sebastian BaezBaez – Dominic ThiemThiem (6-2 6-75 6-4) – See score progression
- Francisco CerundoloCerundolo – Aslan KaratsevKaratsev (7-5 6-1) – See score progression
- Pablo Carreno-BustaCarreno-Busta – Diego Sebastian SchwartzmanSebastian Schwartzman (6-1 6-0) – See score progression
- Rafael Matos/David Vega HernandezMatos/David Vega Hernandez – Andres Molteni/Hugo NysMolteni/Hugo Nys (7-5 5-7 10-8) – See score progression
- Simone Bolelli/Fabio FogniniBolelli/Fabio Fognini – Pablo Carreno-Busta/Joao SousaCarreno-Busta/Joao Sousa (6-4 6-1) – See score progression
- Francisco Cerundolo/Tomas Martin EtcheverryCerundolo/Tomas Martin Etcheverry – Fabrice Martin/Franko SkugorMartin/Franko Skugor (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Francisco CerundoloCerundolo – Pablo Carreno-BustaCarreno-Busta (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Sebastian BaezBaez – Andrey RublevRublev (0-0) – H2H and prediction
