Jelena Ostapenko and Tatjana Maria will clash against each other in the 4th round of Wimbledon for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Sunday at 1:00 pm on Court 1. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Jelena Ostapenko who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Jelena Ostapenko is the pick to win this match.
Jelena Ostapenko -> 1.25
Tatjana Maria -> 4.333

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Prediction and head to head Jelena Ostapenko vs. Tatjana Maria

There is no head to head record between Jelena Ostapenko and Tatjana Maria since this will be the first time that they will clash against each other in the main tour.

Jelena Ostapenko

Jelena Ostapenko

0 - 0win/loss

Rank
23
High
5
LLLLWLLWLL
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 18-20 8-14 9-4 0-0 1-2 0-0
2024 31-19 14-10 8-6 4-0 5-3 0-0
2023 37-22 21-15 7-4 1-1 8-2 0-0
2022 33-19 19-10 3-3 3-3 8-3 0-0
2021 32-19 12-9 5-4 7-4 8-2 0-0

Ranked no. 17, Ostapenko reached the 4th round after defeating Oceane Dodin 6-4 6-4, Yanina Wickmayer 6-2 6-2 and Irina-Camelia Begu 3-6 6-1 6-1.

In the 3rd round against Begu, Ostapenko recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (3-6 6-1 6-1). During the match, Ostapenko scored 80 points vs Begu’s 59. Jelena was very aggressive to blast 29 winners.

Talking about the service games, Ostapenko scored just 1 ace for the entire match and she committed only 7 double faults. Jelena Ostapenko lost the serve 3 times and she saved 5 break points. Furthermore, Ostapenko put 50% of her first serves in, winning 78% (29/37) of the points behind her 1st serve and 46% (17/37) on the 2nd serve. Ostapenko broke Begu 6 times after converting 60% of her break points (6/10).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Latvian has conceded 1 set in this tournament to conquer 57% of the points she played.

Ostapenko has a solid record in the last 10 years having won 62% of her matches (294-182). 8-2 on grass in 2022. Talking about her performance on the same surface of this event, Ostapenko has a composed 40-18 win-loss record in the last years on grass.

Her best result of the current year was winning the title in in Dubai where she defeated Veronika Kudermetova in the final 6-0 6-4.

The Latvian has an overall 23-11 win-loss record in 2022, 8-2 on grass (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Wimbledon

Wimbledon
Ostapenko's Record

Tatjana Maria

Tatjana Maria

0 - 0win/loss

Rank
41
High
36
LLLWWLLLWW
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 30-32 16-18 2-9 1-1 11-4 0-0
2024 35-36 16-19 5-10 9-3 5-4 0-0
2023 43-31 24-17 12-8 0-1 7-5 0-0
2022 47-29 17-12 14-6 6-6 10-5 0-0
2021 7-15 3-8 3-5 1-2 0-0 0-0

Ranked no. 103, Maria reached the 4th round after defeating Astra Sharma 4-6 6-3 6-4, Sorana Cirstea 6-3 1-6 7-5 and Maria Sakkari 6-3 7-5.

In the 3rd round, Maria had a good straight sets win against Sakkari (6-3 7-5). During the match Maria scored 77 points vs Sakkari’s 66. Tatjana was extremely aggressive to blast 33 winners.

Talking about serving, Maria scored 5 aces and she committed only 2 double faults. Overall, Tatjana Maria was pretty efficient on serve to win 75% (33/44) of her 1st serve and 53% (20/38) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent her to concede the serve once. Maria broke Sakkari 3 times after converting 60% of her break points (3/5).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Tatjana has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 53% of the points she played.

Her best result of the season was winning the title in in Bogota where she beat Laura Pigossi in the final 6-3 4-6 6-2.

Maria has a composed 34-16 win-loss record in 2022, 8-4 on grass (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Wimbledon

Previously, her best result was reaching the 3rd round in 2015. See her history.

Wimbledon
Maria's Record

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

J.Ostapenko
T.Maria
3h:52
3h:52
Time on court​
5h:23
5h:23
1h:29
1h:29
Last match​
1h:31
1h:31
3
3
Match played
3
3
59
59
Games Played​
78
78
7
7
Set played​​
8
8
221
221
Total points​
252
252
73.7
73.7
Avg point​
84
84
73
73
Winners
95
95
24.3
24.3
Avg Winners​
31.7
31.7
33%
33%
Ratio winners
38%
38%
-- Serve --
13
13
Aces
13
13
4.3
4.3
Avg Aces
4.3
4.3
16
16
Double Faults
13
13
!
5.3
5.3
Avg Double Faults
4.3
4.3
73/104
73/104
1st won total​
95/135
95/135
70%
70%
1st won %
70%
70%
47/87
47/87
2nd won total​
54/112
54/112
54%
54%
2nd won %
48%
48%
-- Break Points --
15/31
15/31
BP won
14/21
14/21
5/10.3
5/10.3
Avg BP won
4.7/7
4.7/7
48%
48%
Won
!
67%
67%
15
15
Conceded
24
24
5
5
Avg Conceded
8
8
6
6
Broken
11
11
2
2
Avg Broken
3.7
3.7
9
9
Saved
13
13

Matches, sets, games and points

Points Ostapenko Maria
Match played 3 3
Tot Set 7 8
Tot Games 59 78
Pts 221-170 252-228
Total Points 391 480
Winners 73 95
%Winners 33% 38%

Both Ostapenko and Maria played 3 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Jelena Ostapenko dropped 1 set, while Tatjana Maria conceded 2 sets. Ostapenko has played 1 set(s) less than Maria (7 vs 8). Therefore, Ostapenko played 19 games less than Maria. Jelena scored 73 winners (33% of the total points). On the other side, Tatjana scored 95 winners (38%).

Serve Performance

Serve Ostapenko Maria
Aces 13 13
Avg per match 4.3 4.3
1st in 104/191 135/247
%1st in 54% 55%
1st pts 73/104 95/135
%1st pts 70% 70%
2nd pts 47/87 54/112
%2nd pts 54% 48%

Ostapenko bagged 13 aces (4.3 per match). Maria made 13 aces (4.3 per match). Ostapenko won 70% points behind her first serve. She quite strong on her second serve to win 54% of the points. On the other side, Maria won 70% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 48% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks Ostapenko Maria
Won 15 14
Converted 15/31 14/21
% Converted 48% 67%
Conceded 15 24
Saved 9 13
% Saved 60% 54%
Times Broken 6 11

The Latvian broke her opponents 15 times with a 48% conversion rate. Jelena lost her serve 6 times and she saved 60% of the break points that she conceded. The German broke her opponents 14 times with a 67% conversion rate. Tatjana conceded her serve 11 times and she saved 54% of the break points that she conceded.

Ostapenko
R1
Dodin
R2
Wickmayer
R3
Begu
Total
Score 6-4 6-4 6-2 6-2 3-6 6-1 6-1
Tot Set 2 2 3 7
Tot Games 20 16 23 59
pts 65-55 76-56 80-59 221-170
Total points 120 132 139 391
Winners 21 23 29 73
%Winners 32% 30% 36% 33%
SERVE
Aces 9 3 1 13
Double Faults 6 3 7 16
1st in 30/56 37/61 37/74 104/191
% 1st in 54% 61% 50% 54%
1st pts 21/30 23/37 29/37 73/104
% 1st pts 70% 62% 78% 70%
2nd pts 13/26 17/24 17/37 47/87
% 2nd pts 50% 71% 46% 54%
Breaks
Won 5 4 6 15
Converted 5/8 4/13 6/10 15/31
Converted % 63% 31% 60% 48%
Conceded 5 2 8 15
Saved 2/5 2/2 5/8 9
Saved % 40% 100% 63% 68%
Times Broken 3 0 3 6
Maria
R1
Sharma
R2
Cirstea
R3
Sakkari
Total
Score 4-6 6-3 6-4 6-3 1-6 7-5 6-3 7-5
Tot Set 3 3 2 8
Tot Games 29 28 21 78
pts 86-74 89-88 77-66 252-228
Total points 160 177 143 480
Winners 28 34 33 95
%Winners 33% 38% 43% 38%
SERVE
Aces 4 4 5 13
Double Faults 7 4 2 13
1st in 39/77 52/88 44/82 135/247
% 1st in 51% 59% 54% 55%
1st pts 28/39 34/52 33/44 95/135
% 1st pts 72% 65% 75% 70%
2nd pts 21/38 13/36 20/38 54/112
% 2nd pts 55% 36% 53% 48%
Breaks
Won 5 6 3 14
Converted 5/8 6/8 3/5 14/21
Converted % 63% 75% 60% 67%
Conceded 5 12 7 24
Saved 1/5 6/12 6/7 13
Saved % 20% 50% 86% 52%
Times Broken 4 6 1 11

Tennis Scores – Wimbledon

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