Jelena Ostapenko and Tatjana Maria will clash against each other in the 4th round of Wimbledon for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Sunday at 1:00 pm on Court 1. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Jelena Ostapenko who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Jelena Ostapenko is the pick to win this match.
Jelena Ostapenko -> 1.25
Tatjana Maria -> 4.333
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Prediction and head to head Jelena Ostapenko vs. Tatjana Maria
There is no head to head record between Jelena Ostapenko and Tatjana Maria since this will be the first time that they will clash against each other in the main tour.
Jelena Ostapenko
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 18-20 | 8-14 | 9-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 31-19 | 14-10 | 8-6 | 4-0 | 5-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 37-22 | 21-15 | 7-4 | 1-1 | 8-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 33-19 | 19-10 | 3-3 | 3-3 | 8-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 32-19 | 12-9 | 5-4 | 7-4 | 8-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 17, Ostapenko reached the 4th round after defeating Oceane Dodin 6-4 6-4, Yanina Wickmayer 6-2 6-2 and Irina-Camelia Begu 3-6 6-1 6-1.
In the 3rd round against Begu, Ostapenko recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (3-6 6-1 6-1). During the match, Ostapenko scored 80 points vs Begu’s 59. Jelena was very aggressive to blast 29 winners.
Talking about the service games, Ostapenko scored just 1 ace for the entire match and she committed only 7 double faults. Jelena Ostapenko lost the serve 3 times and she saved 5 break points. Furthermore, Ostapenko put 50% of her first serves in, winning 78% (29/37) of the points behind her 1st serve and 46% (17/37) on the 2nd serve. Ostapenko broke Begu 6 times after converting 60% of her break points (6/10).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Latvian has conceded 1 set in this tournament to conquer 57% of the points she played.
Ostapenko has a solid record in the last 10 years having won 62% of her matches (294-182). 8-2 on grass in 2022. Talking about her performance on the same surface of this event, Ostapenko has a composed 40-18 win-loss record in the last years on grass.
Her best result of the current year was winning the title in in Dubai where she defeated Veronika Kudermetova in the final 6-0 6-4.
The Latvian has an overall 23-11 win-loss record in 2022, 8-2 on grass (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Wimbledon
Tatjana Maria
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 31-32 | 16-18 | 3-9 | 1-1 | 11-4 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 35-36 | 16-19 | 5-10 | 9-3 | 5-4 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 43-31 | 24-17 | 12-8 | 0-1 | 7-5 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 47-29 | 17-12 | 14-6 | 6-6 | 10-5 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 7-15 | 3-8 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 103, Maria reached the 4th round after defeating Astra Sharma 4-6 6-3 6-4, Sorana Cirstea 6-3 1-6 7-5 and Maria Sakkari 6-3 7-5.
In the 3rd round, Maria had a good straight sets win against Sakkari (6-3 7-5). During the match Maria scored 77 points vs Sakkari’s 66. Tatjana was extremely aggressive to blast 33 winners.
Talking about serving, Maria scored 5 aces and she committed only 2 double faults. Overall, Tatjana Maria was pretty efficient on serve to win 75% (33/44) of her 1st serve and 53% (20/38) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent her to concede the serve once. Maria broke Sakkari 3 times after converting 60% of her break points (3/5).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Tatjana has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 53% of the points she played.
Her best result of the season was winning the title in in Bogota where she beat Laura Pigossi in the final 6-3 4-6 6-2.
Maria has a composed 34-16 win-loss record in 2022, 8-4 on grass (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Wimbledon
Previously, her best result was reaching the 3rd round in 2015. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Ostapenko | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 3 | 3 |
| Tot Set | 7 | 8 |
| Tot Games | 59 | 78 |
| Pts | 221-170 | 252-228 |
| Total Points | 391 | 480 |
| Winners | 73 | 95 |
| %Winners | 33% | 38% |
Both Ostapenko and Maria played 3 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Jelena Ostapenko dropped 1 set, while Tatjana Maria conceded 2 sets. Ostapenko has played 1 set(s) less than Maria (7 vs 8). Therefore, Ostapenko played 19 games less than Maria. Jelena scored 73 winners (33% of the total points). On the other side, Tatjana scored 95 winners (38%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Ostapenko | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 13 | 13 |
| Avg per match | 4.3 | 4.3 |
| 1st in | 104/191 | 135/247 |
| %1st in | 54% | 55% |
| 1st pts | 73/104 | 95/135 |
| %1st pts | 70% | 70% |
| 2nd pts | 47/87 | 54/112 |
| %2nd pts | 54% | 48% |
Ostapenko bagged 13 aces (4.3 per match). Maria made 13 aces (4.3 per match). Ostapenko won 70% points behind her first serve. She quite strong on her second serve to win 54% of the points. On the other side, Maria won 70% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 48% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Ostapenko | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 15 | 14 |
| Converted | 15/31 | 14/21 |
| % Converted | 48% | 67% |
| Conceded | 15 | 24 |
| Saved | 9 | 13 |
| % Saved | 60% | 54% |
| Times Broken | 6 | 11 |
The Latvian broke her opponents 15 times with a 48% conversion rate. Jelena lost her serve 6 times and she saved 60% of the break points that she conceded. The German broke her opponents 14 times with a 67% conversion rate. Tatjana conceded her serve 11 times and she saved 54% of the break points that she conceded.
| Ostapenko | |||||
| R1 Dodin |
R2 Wickmayer |
R3 Begu |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-4 | 6-2 6-2 | 3-6 6-1 6-1 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | |
| Tot Games | 20 | 16 | 23 | 59 | |
| pts | 65-55 | 76-56 | 80-59 | 221-170 | |
| Total points | 120 | 132 | 139 | 391 | |
| Winners | 21 | 23 | 29 | 73 | |
| %Winners | 32% | 30% | 36% | 33% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 9 | 3 | 1 | 13 | |
| Double Faults | 6 | 3 | 7 | 16 | |
| 1st in | 30/56 | 37/61 | 37/74 | 104/191 | |
| % 1st in | 54% | 61% | 50% | 54% | |
| 1st pts | 21/30 | 23/37 | 29/37 | 73/104 | |
| % 1st pts | 70% | 62% | 78% | 70% | |
| 2nd pts | 13/26 | 17/24 | 17/37 | 47/87 | |
| % 2nd pts | 50% | 71% | 46% | 54% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 5 | 4 | 6 | 15 | |
| Converted | 5/8 | 4/13 | 6/10 | 15/31 | |
| Converted % | 63% | 31% | 60% | 48% | |
| Conceded | 5 | 2 | 8 | 15 | |
| Saved | 2/5 | 2/2 | 5/8 | 9 | |
| Saved % | 40% | 100% | 63% | 68% | |
| Times Broken | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6 | |
| Maria | |||||
| R1 Sharma |
R2 Cirstea |
R3 Sakkari |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 4-6 6-3 6-4 | 6-3 1-6 7-5 | 6-3 7-5 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 | |
| Tot Games | 29 | 28 | 21 | 78 | |
| pts | 86-74 | 89-88 | 77-66 | 252-228 | |
| Total points | 160 | 177 | 143 | 480 | |
| Winners | 28 | 34 | 33 | 95 | |
| %Winners | 33% | 38% | 43% | 38% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 4 | 4 | 5 | 13 | |
| Double Faults | 7 | 4 | 2 | 13 | |
| 1st in | 39/77 | 52/88 | 44/82 | 135/247 | |
| % 1st in | 51% | 59% | 54% | 55% | |
| 1st pts | 28/39 | 34/52 | 33/44 | 95/135 | |
| % 1st pts | 72% | 65% | 75% | 70% | |
| 2nd pts | 21/38 | 13/36 | 20/38 | 54/112 | |
| % 2nd pts | 55% | 36% | 53% | 48% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 5 | 6 | 3 | 14 | |
| Converted | 5/8 | 6/8 | 3/5 | 14/21 | |
| Converted % | 63% | 75% | 60% | 67% | |
| Conceded | 5 | 12 | 7 | 24 | |
| Saved | 1/5 | 6/12 | 6/7 | 13 | |
| Saved % | 20% | 50% | 86% | 52% | |
| Times Broken | 4 | 6 | 1 | 11 | |
Head 2 Head
LLLLWLLWLL
WLLLWWLLLW Tennis Scores – Wimbledon
- Ajla TomljanovicTomljanovic – Barbora KrejcikovaKrejcikova (2-6 6-4 6-3) – See score progression
- Harmony TanTan – Katie BoulterBoulter (6-1 6-1) – See score progression
- Elena RybakinaRybakina – Qinwen ZhengZheng (7-64 7-5) – See score progression
- Alize CornetCornet – Iga SwiatekSwiatek (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
- Amanda AnisimovaAnisimova – Cori GauffGauff (6-74 6-2 6-1) – See score progression
- Simona HalepHalep – Magdalena FrechFrech (6-4 6-1) – See score progression
- Petra MarticMartic – Jessica PegulaPegula (6-2 7-65) – See score progression
- Tatjana MariaMaria – Maria SakkariSakkari (6-3 7-5) – See score progression
- Ons JabeurJabeur – Diane ParryParry (6-2 6-3) – See score progression
- Jelena OstapenkoOstapenko – Irina-Camelia BeguBegu (3-6 6-1 6-1) – See score progression
- Elise MertensMertens – Angelique KerberKerber (6-4 7-5) – See score progression
- Jule NiemeierNiemeier – Lesya TsurenkoTsurenko (6-4 3-6 6-3) – See score progression
- Marie BouzkovaBouzkova – Alison RiskeRiske (6-2 6-3) – See score progression
- Heather WatsonWatson – Kaja JuvanJuvan (7-66 6-2) – See score progression
- Caroline GarciaGarcia – Shuai ZhangZhang (7-63 7-65) – See score progression
- Rafael NadalNadal – Fabio FogniniFognini (6-3 6-1) – See score progression
- Richard GasquetGasquet – Gilles SimonSimon (7-5 6-75 6-3) – See score progression
- Albert Ramos-VinolasRamos-Vinolas – Jan-Lennard StruffStruff (7-64 6-4) – See score progression
- Grigor DimitrovDimitrov – Sam QuerreyQuerrey (6-3 7-63) – See score progression
- Marin CilicCilic – Steve JohnsonJohnson (7-61 6-4) – See score progression
- Viktor TroickiTroicki – John IsnerIsner (6-4 7-64) – See score progression
- Juan Martin Del PotroMartin Del Potro – Alexander ZverevZverev (3-6 7-65 6-4) – See score progression
- Roger FedererFederer – Alexandr DolgopolovDolgopolov (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
- Alize CornetCornet – Iga SwiatekSwiatek (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
- Ajla TomljanovicTomljanovic – Barbora KrejcikovaKrejcikova (2-6 6-4 6-3) – See score progression
- Elena RybakinaRybakina – Qinwen ZhengZheng (7-6(4) 7-5) – See score progression
- Petra MarticMartic – Jessica PegulaPegula (6-2 7-6(5)) – See score progression
- Simona HalepHalep – Magdalena FrechFrech (6-4 6-1) – See score progression
- Amanda AnisimovaAnisimova – Cori GauffGauff (6-7(4) 6-2 6-1) – See score progression
- Harmony TanTan – Katie BoulterBoulter (6-1 6-1) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Paula Badosa GibertBadosa Gibert – Petra KvitovaKvitova (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Alize CornetCornet – Ajla TomljanovicTomljanovic (2-2) – H2H and prediction
- Elena RybakinaRybakina – Petra MarticMartic (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Amanda AnisimovaAnisimova – Harmony TanTan (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Marie BouzkovaBouzkova – Caroline GarciaGarcia (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Elise MertensMertens – Ons JabeurJabeur (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Tatjana MariaMaria – Jelena OstapenkoOstapenko (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Heather WatsonWatson – Jule NiemeierNiemeier (1-0) – H2H and prediction
