Shintaro Mochizuki and Andrew Paulson will clash against each other in the 1st round of the Milan Challenger for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Tuesday at 10:30 am on COURT 13. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Shintaro Mochizuki who should win in 3 sets.
Shintaro Mochizuki -> 1.69
Andrew Paulson -> 2.12
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Prediction and head to head Shintaro Mochizuki vs. Andrew Paulson
There is no head to head record between Shintaro Mochizuki and Andrew Paulson since this will be the first time that they will face off in the main tour.
Shintaro Mochizuki
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 43-30 | 27-16 | 2-6 | 3-5 | 11-3 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 28-33 | 19-22 | 7-5 | 0-1 | 2-5 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 41-33 | 22-16 | 13-8 | 2-5 | 4-4 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 37-34 | 18-17 | 13-12 | 6-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 35-30 | 11-10 | 18-11 | 5-7 | 1-1 | 0-1 |
Ranked no. 386, Shintaro got to the 1st round after defeating Lorenzo Rottoli 6-2 6-72 7-5.
Mochizuki has a winning record in the last 5 years having won 56% of his matches (86-67). 10-9 on clay in 2022. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this competition, Mochizuki has an overall36-23 record in the last 5 years on clay.
Mochizuki has a composed 17-14 win-loss record in 2022, 10-9 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Milan Challenger
The Japanese has never competed in this tournament before.
Andrew Paulson
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 5-11 | 0-0 | 5-11 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 13-7 | 0-0 | 13-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 37-22 | 1-3 | 31-13 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 4-1 |
| 2022 | 53-27 | 6-3 | 30-15 | 15-7 | 0-0 | 2-2 |
| 2021 | 47-26 | 19-8 | 11-11 | 15-6 | 0-0 | 2-1 |
Ranked no. 426 (career-high), Andrew got to the 1st round after beating Manuel Mazza 6-0 6-3 and Giovanni Oradini 6-2 6-0.
In the qualifications, Paulson had a good straight sets win against Oradini (6-2 6-0). During the match Paulson scored 52 points vs Oradini’s 26. The Czech was very aggressive to blast 17 winners.
Talking about serving, Paulson blasted 3 aces and he committed only 4 double faults. Andrew Paulson was pretty efficient on serve to win 77% (17/22) of his 1st serve and 68% (13/19) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Andrew broke Oradini 5 times after converting 56% of his break points (5/9).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Andrew started his run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, he hasn’t dropped yet a set in this competition to win 67% of the points he played.
The Czech’s best result of the current year was getting to the final in M15 Monastir and M25 Most.
Paulson has an aggregate 29-13 win-loss record in 2022, 15-7 on clay (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Mochizuki | Paulson |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 1 | 2 |
| Tot Set | 3 | 4 |
| Tot Games | 33 | 29 |
| Pts | 131-116 | 112-54 |
| Total Points | 247 | 166 |
| Winners | 37 | 35 |
| %Winners | 28% | 31% |
Mochizuki played 1 match while Paulson competed in 2 matches. At the moment, Shintaro Mochizuki conceded 1 set while Andrew Paulson hasn’t dropped a set so far. Mochizuki has played 1 set(s) less than Paulson (3 vs 4). However, it’s interesting to notice that Mochizuki played 4 games more than Paulson. The Japanese scored 37 winners (28% of the total points). On the other side, The Czech struck 35 winners (31%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Mochizuki | Paulson |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 5 | 5 |
| Avg per match | 5 | 2.5 |
| 1st in | 54/118 | 41/85 |
| %1st in | 46% | 48% |
| 1st pts | 37/54 | 35/41 |
| %1st pts | 69% | 85% |
| 2nd pts | 31/64 | 30/44 |
| %2nd pts | 48% | 68% |
Mochizuki recorded 5 aces . Paulson made 5 aces (2.5 per match). Mochizuki won 69% points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 48% of the points. On the other side, Paulson won 85% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 68% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Mochizuki | Paulson |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 8 | 9 |
| Converted | 8/18 | 9/15 |
| % Converted | 44% | 60% |
| Conceded | 17 | 3 |
| Saved | 12 | 3 |
| % Saved | 71% | 100% |
| Times Broken | 5 | 0 |
The Japanese broke his opponent 8 times with a 44% conversion rate. Mochizuki dropped his serve 5 times and he saved 71% of the break points that he conceded. The Czech broke his opponents 9 times with a 60% conversion rate. The Czech was rock solid on his serve as he has never conceded a single service game after saving 3 break points.
| Mochizuki | ||||
| Q1 Rottoli | Q3 Peliwo | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 6-72 7-5 | 6-2 1-6 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | 6 | |
| Tot Games | 33 | 25 | 58 | |
| pts | 131-116 | – | 131-116 | |
| Total points | 247 | 0 | 247 | |
| Winners | 37 | 37 | ||
| %Winners | 28% | 0% | 28% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 5 | 0 | 5 | |
| Double Faults | 10 | 10 | ||
| 1st in | 54/118 | / | 54/118 | |
| % 1st in | 46% | 0% | 46% | |
| 1st pts | 37/54 | / | 37/54 | |
| % 1st pts | 69% | 0% | 69% | |
| 2nd pts | 31/64 | / | 31/64 | |
| % 2nd pts | 48% | 0% | 48% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 8 | 8 | ||
| Converted | 8/18 | / | 8/18 | |
| Converted % | 44% | 0% | 44% | |
| Conceded | 17 | 17 | ||
| Saved | 12/17 | 0/ | 12 | |
| Saved % | 71% | – | 36% | |
| Times Broken | 5 | 5 | ||
| Paulson | ||||
| Q1 Mazza | Q3 Oradini | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-0 6-3 | 6-2 6-0 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Tot Games | 15 | 14 | 29 | |
| pts | 60-28 | 52-26 | 112-54 | |
| Total points | 88 | 78 | 166 | |
| Winners | 18 | 17 | 35 | |
| %Winners | 30% | 33% | 31% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 2 | 3 | 5 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 4 | 6 | |
| 1st in | 19/44 | 22/41 | 41/85 | |
| % 1st in | 43% | 54% | 48% | |
| 1st pts | 18/19 | 17/22 | 35/41 | |
| % 1st pts | 95% | 77% | 85% | |
| 2nd pts | 17/25 | 13/19 | 30/44 | |
| % 2nd pts | 68% | 68% | 68% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 4 | 5 | 9 | |
| Converted | 4/6 | 5/9 | 9/15 | |
| Converted % | 67% | 56% | 60% | |
| Conceded | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
| Saved | 1/1 | 2/2 | 3 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 100% | 100% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Tennis Scores in Milan Challenger
- Federico CoriaCoria – Pedja KrstinKrstin (6-1 6-1) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Gianmarco FerrariFerrari – Maxime JanvierJanvier (1-6 7-65 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Ernests GulbisGulbis – Julian LenzLenz (5-7 7-61 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Joris De LooreDe Loore – Robin HaaseHaase (6-1 2-0 ret.) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Matteo GiganteGigante – Francesco MaestrelliMaestrelli (6-4 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Alexander ShevchenkoShevchenko – Aldin SetkicSetkic (6-1 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Inigo CervantesCervantes – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Alexey VatutinVatutin – Benoit PairePaire (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Federico CoriaCoria – Joris De LooreDe Loore (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Marco CecchinatoCecchinato – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Filip PeliwoPeliwo – Raul BrancaccioBrancaccio (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Viktor DurasovicDurasovic – Georgii KravchenkoKravchenko (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Giovanni FonioFonio – Matteo MartineauMartineau (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Alexis GalarneauGalarneau – Federico ArnaboldiArnaboldi (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Fabian MarozsanMarozsan – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Francesco PassaroPassaro – Nicholas David IonelDavid Ionel (0-0) – H2H and prediction