Matteo Berrettini and Andy Murray will play each other in the final of the Mercedes Cup for the 3rd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Sunday at 3:00 pm on Center Court. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Matteo Berrettini who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Matteo Berrettini is the pick to win this match.
Matteo Berrettini -> 1.74
Andy Murray -> 2.19

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Prediction and head to head Matteo Berrettini vs. Andy Murray

This will be the 3rd time that Matteo Berrettini and Andy Murray face off. The head to head is 1-1 (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on grass.

The last time that they squared off, Berrettini won 6-3 6-3 in the 2nd round in London back in 2021.

Highlights Matteo Berrettini vs Andy Murray – London 17-June-2021

Matteo Berrettini

Matteo Berrettini

0 - 0win/loss

Rank
56
High
6
LWWLWWLWLL
See allSTATS
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 19-17 10-9 4-3 5-4 0-1 0-0
2024 36-13 7-6 15-1 8-3 6-3 0-0
2023 14-12 9-10 2-0 0-0 3-2 0-0
2022 32-12 15-9 4-2 4-1 9-0 0-0
2021 41-12 14-5 13-4 3-2 11-1 0-0
See all years

Ranked no. 10, the Italian reached the final after defeating Radu Albot 6-2 4-6 6-3, Lorenzo Sonego 3-6 6-3 6-4 and Oscar Otte 7-67 7-65.

In the semifinal, The Italian had a good straight sets win against Otte (7-67 7-65). During the match, Berrettini scored 82 points vs Otte’s 74. Berrettini was extremely aggressive to blast 41 winners.

Regarding the service games, Berrettini struck 18 aces and he was pretty solid in conceding no double faults. Matteo Berrettini was very efficient on serve to win 84% (41/49) of his 1st serve and 76% (19/25) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match.

Overall Performance in this tournament

Matteo has surrendered 2 set in this competition to conquer 52% of the points he played.

Berrettini has a solid match record in the last 9 years having won 67% of his matches (260-130). 3-0 on grass in 2022. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Berrettini has an overall30-7 match record in the last 9 years on grass.

Matteo’s best result of the current year was reaching the semifinal at the Australian Open and Stuttgart.

Berrettini has a compiled 12-6 win-loss record in 2022, 3-0 on grass (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Stuttgart

Stuttgart
Berrettini's Record

Andy Murray

Andy Murray

0 - 0win/loss

Rank
160
High
1
LWLLLLWLWW
See allSTATS
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2024 7-13 5-6 1-3 0-2 1-2 0-0
2023 31-18 13-10 5-4 2-2 11-2 0-0
2022 29-20 12-11 2-0 5-5 10-4 0-0
2021 20-16 5-5 0-0 12-9 3-2 0-0
2020 3-4 3-2 0-1 0-1 0-0 0-0
See all years

Ranked no. 68, Murray reached the final after beating Christopher O Connell 6-4 6-3, Alexander Bublik 6-3 7-64, Stefanos Tsitsipas 7-64 6-3 and Nick Kyrgios 7-65 6-2.

In the semifinal, The Brit had a good straight sets win against Kyrgios (7-65 6-2). During the match Murray scored 69 points vs Kyrgios’s 58. The Brit was very aggressive to blast 34 winners.

About the serving games, Murray recorded 9 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Andy Murray was very effective on serve to win 85% (34/40) of his 1st serve and 54% (14/26) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Andy broke Kyrgios twice after converting 67% of his break points (2/3).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Andy hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 54% of the points he played.

Murray’s best result of the year was getting to the final in Sydney.

Andy has a composed 19-9 win-loss record in 2022, 7-1 on grass (See FULL STATS).

Stuttgart
Murray's Record

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

M.Berrettini
A.Murray
5h:56
5h:56
Time on court​
6h:28
6h:28
1h:46
1h:46
Last match​
1h:31
1h:31
3
3
Match played
!
4
4
81
81
Games Played​
84
84
8
8
Set played​​
8
8
257
257
Total points​
285
285
85.7
85.7
Avg point​
71.3
71.3
136
136
Winners
134
134
45.3
45.3
Avg Winners​
33.5
33.5
53%
53%
Ratio winners
47%
47%
-- Serve --
46
46
Aces
27
27
!
15.3
15.3
Avg Aces
6.8
6.8
5
5
Double Faults
7
7
1.7
1.7
Avg Double Faults
1.8
1.8
136/172
136/172
1st won total​
134/167
134/167
!
79%
79%
1st won %
!
80%
80%
45/79
45/79
2nd won total​
56/102
56/102
57%
57%
2nd won %
55%
55%
-- Break Points --
5/17
5/17
BP won
10/24
10/24
1.7/5.7
1.7/5.7
Avg BP won
2.5/6
2.5/6
!
29%
29%
Won
42%
42%
11
11
Conceded
12
12
3.7
3.7
Avg Conceded
3
3
2
2
Broken
3
3
!
0.7
0.7
Avg Broken
!
0.8
0.8
9
9
Saved
9
9
See Allstats

Matches, sets, games and points

Points Berrettini Murray
Match played 3 4
Tot Set 8 8
Tot Games 81 84
Pts 257-236 285-242
Total Points 493 527
Winners 136 134
%Winners 53% 47%

Berrettini played 3 matches while Murray competed in 4 matches. At the moment, Matteo Berrettini lost 2 sets while Andy Murray hasn’t dropped a set so far. Talking about their workload, Berrettini and Murray have played the same amount of sets 8. However, Berrettini played 3 games less than Murray. The Italian scored 136 winners (53% of the total points). On the other side, Andy blasted 134 winners (47%).

Serve Performance

Serve Berrettini Murray
Aces 46 27
Avg per match 15.3 6.8
1st in 172/251 167/269
%1st in 69% 62%
1st pts 136/172 134/167
%1st pts 79% 80%
2nd pts 45/79 56/102
%2nd pts 57% 55%

Berrettini bagged 46 aces (15.3 per match). Murray scored 27 aces (6.8 per match). Berrettini won 79% points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 57% of the points. On the other side, Murray won 80% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 55% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks Berrettini Murray
Won 5 10
Converted 5/17 10/24
% Converted 29% 42%
Conceded 11 12
Saved 9 9
% Saved 82% 75%
Times Broken 2 3

The Italian broke his opponents 5 times with a 29% conversion rate. Matteo conceded his serve twice and he saved 82% of the break points that he conceded. Murray broke his opponents 10 times with a 42% conversion rate. Murray conceded his serve 3 times and he saved 75% of the break points that he conceded.

Berrettini
R2
Albot		 1/4
Sonego		 1/2
Otte		 Total
Score 6-2 4-6 6-3 3-6 6-3 6-4 7-67 7-65
Tot Set 3 3 2 8
Tot Games 27 28 26 81
pts 86-72 89-90 82-74 257-236
Total points 158 179 156 493
Winners 48 47 41 136
%Winners 56% 53% 50% 53%
SERVE
Aces 21 7 18 46
Double Faults 1 4 0 5
1st in 59/83 64/94 49/74 172/251
% 1st in 71% 68% 66% 69%
1st pts 48/59 47/64 41/49 136/172
% 1st pts 81% 73% 84% 79%
2nd pts 11/24 15/30 19/25 45/79
% 2nd pts 46% 50% 76% 57%
Breaks
Won 3 2 0 5
Converted 3/6 2/10 0/1 5/17
Converted % 50% 20% 0% 29%
Conceded 4 7 0 11
Saved 3/4 6/7 0/0 9
Saved % 75% 86% – 54%
Times Broken 1 1 0 2
Murray
R1
O		 R2
Bublik		 1/4
Tsitsipas		 1/2
Kyrgios		 Total
Score 6-4 6-3 6-3 7-64 7-64 6-3 7-65 6-2
Tot Set 2 2 2 2 8
Tot Games 19 22 22 21 84
pts 72-59 78-65 66-60 69-58 285-242
Total points 131 143 126 127 527
Winners 23 40 37 34 134
%Winners 32% 51% 56% 49% 47%
SERVE
Aces 7 6 5 9 27
Double Faults 1 2 1 3 7
1st in 26/53 56/82 45/68 40/66 167/269
% 1st in 49% 68% 66% 61% 62%
1st pts 23/26 40/56 37/45 34/40 134/167
% 1st pts 88% 71% 82% 85% 80%
2nd pts 13/27 14/26 15/23 14/26 56/102
% 2nd pts 48% 54% 65% 54% 55%
Breaks
Won 4 3 1 2 10
Converted 4/12 3/5 1/4 2/3 10/24
Converted % 33% 60% 25% 67% 42%
Conceded 2 7 1 2 12
Saved 1/2 5/7 1/1 2/2 9
Saved % 50% 71% 100% 100% 107%
Times Broken 1 2 0 0 3

Upcoming matches in the draw

Berrettini
More Stats
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Murray

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