Rafael Nadal and Casper Ruud will square off in the final of the French Open for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Sunday at 3:00 pm on Court Philippe-Chatrier. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Rafael Nadal who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Rafael Nadal is the pick to win this match.
Rafael Nadal -> 1.185
Casper Ruud -> 5.65
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Prediction and head to head Rafael Nadal vs. Casper Ruud
There is no head to head record between Rafael Nadal and Casper Ruud since this will be the first time that they will face off in the main tour.
Rafael Nadal
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 7-5 | 2-1 | 5-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 39-8 | 23-3 | 10-2 | 1-3 | 5-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 24-5 | 5-2 | 19-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 27-7 | 13-3 | 9-1 | 5-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 5, Rafael got to the final after beating Jordan Thompson 6-2 6-2 6-2, Corentin Moutet 6-3 6-1 6-4, Botic Van De Zandschulp 6-3 6-2 6-4, Felix Auger Aliassime 3-6 6-3 6-2 3-6 6-3, Novak Djokovic 6-2 4-6 6-2 7-64 and Alexander Zverev 7-68 6-6 ret..
In the semifinal, The Spaniard defeated Zverev (7-68 6-6 ret.). During the match, Nadal scored 97 points vs Zverev’s 93. Nadal was exceptionally aggressive to blast 30 winners.
Talking about the service games, Nadal recorded 3 aces and he committed only 1 double fault. Rafael Nadal lost the serve 5 times and he saved 3 break points. Furthermore, Nadal put 60% of his first serves in, winning 58% (30/52) of the points behind his 1st serve and 49% (17/35) on the 2nd serve. Rafael broke Zverev 5 times after converting 45% of his break points (5/11).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Nadal has conceded 3 set in this event to conquer 56% of the points he played.
Nadal has a solid win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 84% of his matches (474-90). 9-2 on clay in 2022. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Nadal has a compiled 219-26 win-loss record in the last years on clay.
His best result of the year was conquering the title in in Melbourne where he beat Maxime Cressy in the final 7-6(6) 6-3 and in at the Australian Open where he defeated Daniil Medvedev in the final 2-6 6-7(5) 6-4 6-4 7-5 and in in Acapulco where he beat Cameron Norrie in the final 6-4 6-4.
Rafael has an overall 29-3 win-loss record in 2022, 9-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the French Open
Casper Ruud
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 40-10 | 17-5 | 21-5 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 37-23 | 12-12 | 22-8 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 51-22 | 18-8 | 25-7 | 7-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 57-17 | 16-6 | 28-5 | 11-4 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 22-13 | 4-5 | 17-6 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 8, the Norwegian got to the final after defeating Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 6-76 7-64 6-2 7-60, Emil Ruusuvuori 6-3 6-4 6-2, Lorenzo Sonego 6-2 6-73 1-6 6-4 6-3, Hubert Hurkacz 6-2 6-3 3-6 6-3, Holger Vitus Nodskov Rune 6-1 4-6 7-62 6-3 and Marin Cilic 3-6 6-4 6-2 6-2.
In the semifinal against Cilic, Casper recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (3-6 6-4 6-2 6-2). During the match Ruud scored 121 points vs Cilic’s 103. Casper was very aggressive to blast 50 winners.
About the serving games, Ruud made 16 aces and he was extremely steady in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Overall, Casper Ruud was exceptionally effective on serve to win 71% (50/70) of his 1st serve and 64% (25/39) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve twice. Ruud broke Cilic 5 times after converting 33% of his break points (5/15).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Norwegian has conceded 6 set in the tournament to win 55% of the points he played.
His best result of the year was winning the title in in Buenos Aires where he beat Diego Sebastian Schwartzman in the final 5-7 6-2 6-3 and in in Geneva where he overcame Joao Sousa in the final 7-6(3) 4-6 7-6(1).
Ruud has a compiled 30-9 win-loss record in 2022, 21-5 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the French Open
Previously, his best result was reaching the 3rd round in 2019, 2020 and 2021. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Nadal | Ruud |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 6 | 6 |
| Tot Set | 21 | 24 |
| Tot Games | 185 | 230 |
| Pts | 668-538 | 778-649 |
| Total Points | 1206 | 1427 |
| Winners | 258 | 344 |
| %Winners | 39% | 44% |
Both Nadal and Ruud played 6 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Rafael Nadal dropped 3 sets, while Casper Ruud lost 6 sets. Nadal has played 3 set(s) less than Ruud (21 vs 24). Therefore, Nadal played 45 games less than Ruud. Rafael scored 258 winners (39% of the total points). On the other side, Ruud scored 344 winners (44%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Nadal | Ruud |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 13 | 52 |
| Avg per match | 2.2 | 8.7 |
| 1st in | 374/568 | 468/685 |
| %1st in | 66% | 68% |
| 1st pts | 258/374 | 344/468 |
| %1st pts | 69% | 74% |
| 2nd pts | 116/194 | 132/217 |
| %2nd pts | 60% | 61% |
Nadal struck 13 aces (2.2 per match). Ruud recorded 52 aces (8.7 per match). Nadal won 69% points on his first serve. He was rock solid on his second serve to win 60% of the points. On the other side, Ruud won 74% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 61% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Nadal | Ruud |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 38 | 29 |
| Converted | 38/85 | 29/76 |
| % Converted | 45% | 38% |
| Conceded | 38 | 35 |
| Saved | 20 | 22 |
| % Saved | 53% | 63% |
| Times Broken | 18 | 13 |
Rafael broke his opponents 38 times with a 45% conversion rate. The Spaniard conceded his serve 18 times and he saved 53% of the break points that he conceded. Ruud broke his opponents 29 times with a 38% conversion rate. Ruud conceded his serve 13 times and he saved 63% of the break points that he conceded.
| Nadal | ||||||||
| R1 Thompson |
R2 Moutet |
R3 Van De Zandschulp |
R4 Auger-Aliassime |
1/4 Djokovic |
1/2 Zverev |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 6-2 6-2 | 6-3 6-1 6-4 | 6-3 6-2 6-4 | 3-6 6-3 6-2 3-6 6-3 | 6-2 4-6 6-2 7-64 | 7-68 6-6 ret. | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 20 | |
| Tot Games | 24 | 26 | 27 | 44 | 39 | 25 | 185 | |
| pts | 90-53 | 84-63 | 97-64 | 152-135 | 148-130 | 97-93 | 668-538 | |
| Total points | 143 | 147 | 161 | 287 | 278 | 190 | 1206 | |
| Winners | 30 | 34 | 40 | 60 | 64 | 30 | 258 | |
| %Winners | 33% | 40% | 41% | 39% | 43% | 31% | 39% | |
| SERVE | ||||||||
| Aces | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 13 | |
| Double Faults | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 12 | |
| 1st in | 41/63 | 47/72 | 46/74 | 90/134 | 98/138 | 52/87 | 374/568 | |
| % 1st in | 65% | 65% | 62% | 67% | 71% | 60% | 66% | |
| 1st pts | 30/41 | 34/47 | 40/46 | 60/90 | 64/98 | 30/52 | 258/374 | |
| % 1st pts | 73% | 72% | 87% | 67% | 65% | 58% | 69% | |
| 2nd pts | 17/22 | 14/25 | 15/28 | 29/44 | 24/40 | 17/35 | 116/194 | |
| % 2nd pts | 77% | 56% | 54% | 66% | 60% | 49% | 60% | |
| Breaks | ||||||||
| Won | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 38 | |
| Converted | 7/11 | 7/12 | 6/12 | 6/22 | 7/17 | 5/11 | 38/85 | |
| Converted % | 64% | 58% | 50% | 27% | 41% | 45% | 45% | |
| Conceded | 2 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 12 | 8 | 38 | |
| Saved | 1/2 | 2/4 | 1/3 | 5/9 | 8/12 | 3/8 | 20 | |
| Saved % | 50% | 50% | 33% | 56% | 67% | 38% | 49% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 18 | |
| Ruud | ||||||||
| R1 Tsonga |
R2 Ruusuvuori |
R3 Sonego |
R4 Hurkacz |
1/4 Vitus Nodskov Rune |
1/2 Cilic |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-76 7-64 6-2 7-60 | 6-3 6-4 6-2 | 6-2 6-73 1-6 6-4 6-3 | 6-2 6-3 3-6 6-3 | 6-1 4-6 7-62 6-3 | 3-6 6-4 6-2 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 4 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 24 | |
| Tot Games | 47 | 27 | 47 | 35 | 39 | 35 | 230 | |
| pts | 162-134 | 100-77 | 138-123 | 113-95 | 144-117 | 121-103 | 778-649 | |
| Total points | 296 | 177 | 261 | 208 | 261 | 224 | 1427 | |
| Winners | 77 | 46 | 66 | 42 | 63 | 50 | 344 | |
| %Winners | 48% | 46% | 48% | 37% | 44% | 41% | 44% | |
| SERVE | ||||||||
| Aces | 7 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 13 | 16 | 52 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 8 | |
| 1st in | 102/142 | 67/90 | 90/129 | 59/97 | 80/118 | 70/109 | 468/685 | |
| % 1st in | 72% | 74% | 70% | 61% | 68% | 64% | 68% | |
| 1st pts | 77/102 | 46/67 | 66/90 | 42/59 | 63/80 | 50/70 | 344/468 | |
| % 1st pts | 75% | 69% | 73% | 71% | 79% | 71% | 74% | |
| 2nd pts | 23/40 | 16/23 | 25/39 | 24/38 | 19/38 | 25/39 | 132/217 | |
| % 2nd pts | 58% | 70% | 64% | 63% | 50% | 64% | 61% | |
| Breaks | ||||||||
| Won | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 29 | |
| Converted | 4/10 | 4/15 | 5/9 | 6/10 | 5/17 | 5/15 | 29/76 | |
| Converted % | 40% | 27% | 56% | 60% | 29% | 33% | 38% | |
| Conceded | 7 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 35 | |
| Saved | 5/7 | 4/4 | 1/4 | 2/5 | 3/6 | 7/9 | 22 | |
| Saved % | 71% | 100% | 25% | 40% | 50% | 78% | 61% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 13 | |
Head 2 Head
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WLWWWWWWWW Tennis Scores – French Open
- Marcelo Arevalo/Jean-Julien RojerArevalo/Jean-Julien Rojer – Ivan Dodig/Austin KrajicekDodig/Austin Krajicek (6-74 7-65 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Rafael NadalNadal – Casper RuudRuud (0-0) – H2H and prediction
