Elena Rybakina and Madison Keys will play each other in the 3rd round of the French Open for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Saturday at 7:00 pm on Court SIMONNE-MATHIEU. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Elena Rybakina who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Elena Rybakina is the pick to win this match.
Elena Rybakina -> 1.65
Madison Keys -> 2.35
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Prediction and head to head Elena Rybakina vs. Madison Keys
There is no head to head record between Elena Rybakina and Madison Keys since this will be the first time that they will fight against each other in the main tour.
Elena Rybakina
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 35-7 | 22-4 | 12-2 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 47-15 | 31-11 | 11-2 | 0-0 | 5-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 40-21 | 18-12 | 9-5 | 5-2 | 8-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 33-23 | 18-14 | 6-4 | 2-2 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 29-10 | 18-5 | 7-3 | 4-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 16, Elena reached the 3rd round after beating Arantxa Rus 6-1 5-7 6-2 and Katie Volynets 6-4 6-0.
In the 2nd round, The Kazakhstani had a good straight sets win against Volynets (6-4 6-0). During the match, Rybakina scored 61 points vs Volynets’s 46. Rybakina was quite aggressive to blast 22 winners.
Talking about the service games, Rybakina managed to score 2 aces and she committed only 4 double faults. Elena Rybakina was quite efficient on serve to win 76% (22/29) of her 1st serve and 55% (12/22) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Elena broke Volynets 4 times after converting 36% of her break points (4/11).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Kazakhstani has surrendered 1 set in this tournament to conquer 55% of the points she played.
Rybakina has a solid record in the last 8 years having won 68% of her matches (222-105). 9-4 on clay in 2022. Talking about her performance on the same surface of this event, Rybakina has an overall64-31 match record in the last 8 years on clay.
Elena’s best result of the season was reaching the final in Adelaide.
Rybakina has an aggregate 20-9 win-loss record in 2022, 9-4 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the French Open
Madison Keys
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 17-7 | 3-2 | 13-4 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 33-15 | 19-9 | 5-3 | 0-2 | 9-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 30-20 | 25-12 | 4-4 | 0-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 11-15 | 3-9 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 5-2 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 8-5 | 8-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 22, Madison reached the 3rd round after beating Anna Kalinskaya 6-3 3-6 6-4 and Caroline Garcia 6-4 7-63.
In the 2nd round, Madison had a good straight sets win against Garcia (6-4 7-63). During the match Keys scored 79 points vs Garcia’s 60. Madison was extremely aggressive to blast 37 winners.
Talking about serving, Keys struck 4 aces and she committed only 4 double faults. Overall, Madison Keys was pretty effective on serve to win 88% (37/42) of her 1st serve and 55% (11/20) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent her to concede the serve once. Madison broke Garcia twice after converting 40% of her break points (2/5).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Keys has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 53% of the points she played.
Her best result of the current season was winning the title in in Adelaide where she defeated Alison Riske in the final 6-1 6-2.
The American has a composed 17-9 win-loss record in 2022, 3-3 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the French Open
Previously, her best result was reaching the semifinal in 2018. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Rybakina | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 2 |
| Tot Set | 5 | 5 |
| Tot Games | 43 | 51 |
| Pts | 163-134 | 184-163 |
| Total Points | 297 | 347 |
| Winners | 55 | 70 |
| %Winners | 34% | 38% |
Both Rybakina and Keys played 2 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Elena Rybakina conceded 1 set, while Madison Keys lost 1 set. Talking about their workload, Rybakina and Keys have played the same amount of sets 5. However, Rybakina played 8 games less than Keys. The Kazakhstani scored 55 winners (34% of the total points). On the other side, Keys fired 70 winners (38%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Rybakina | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 5 | 7 |
| Avg per match | 2.5 | 3.5 |
| 1st in | 82/144 | 97/149 |
| %1st in | 57% | 65% |
| 1st pts | 55/82 | 70/97 |
| %1st pts | 67% | 72% |
| 2nd pts | 35/62 | 24/52 |
| %2nd pts | 56% | 46% |
Rybakina recorded 5 aces (2.5 per match). Keys fired 7 aces (3.5 per match). Rybakina won 67% points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 56% of the points. On the other side, Keys won 72% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 46% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Rybakina | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 11 | 9 |
| Converted | 11/25 | 9/22 |
| % Converted | 44% | 41% |
| Conceded | 11 | 11 |
| Saved | 8 | 4 |
| % Saved | 73% | 36% |
| Times Broken | 3 | 7 |
Elena broke her opponents 11 times with a 44% conversion rate. The Kazakhstani surrendered her serve 3 times and she saved 73% of the break points that she conceded. The American broke her opponents 9 times with a 41% conversion rate. The American conceded her serve 7 times and she saved 36% of the break points that she conceded.
| Rybakina | ||||
| R1 Rus |
R2 Volynets |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-1 5-7 6-2 | 6-4 6-0 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 5 | |
| Tot Games | 27 | 16 | 43 | |
| pts | 102-88 | 61-46 | 163-134 | |
| Total points | 190 | 107 | 297 | |
| Winners | 33 | 22 | 55 | |
| %Winners | 32% | 36% | 34% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 3 | 2 | 5 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 4 | 7 | |
| 1st in | 53/93 | 29/51 | 82/144 | |
| % 1st in | 57% | 57% | 57% | |
| 1st pts | 33/53 | 22/29 | 55/82 | |
| % 1st pts | 62% | 76% | 67% | |
| 2nd pts | 23/40 | 12/22 | 35/62 | |
| % 2nd pts | 58% | 55% | 56% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 7 | 4 | 11 | |
| Converted | 7/14 | 4/11 | 11/25 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 36% | 44% | |
| Conceded | 8 | 3 | 11 | |
| Saved | 5/8 | 3/3 | 8 | |
| Saved % | 63% | 100% | 82% | |
| Times Broken | 3 | 0 | 3 | |
| Keys | ||||
| R1 Kalinskaya |
R2 Garcia |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 3-6 6-4 | 6-4 7-63 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 5 | |
| Tot Games | 28 | 23 | 51 | |
| pts | 105-103 | 79-60 | 184-163 | |
| Total points | 208 | 139 | 347 | |
| Winners | 33 | 37 | 70 | |
| %Winners | 31% | 47% | 38% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 3 | 4 | 7 | |
| Double Faults | 4 | 4 | 8 | |
| 1st in | 55/87 | 42/62 | 97/149 | |
| % 1st in | 63% | 68% | 65% | |
| 1st pts | 33/55 | 37/42 | 70/97 | |
| % 1st pts | 60% | 88% | 72% | |
| 2nd pts | 13/32 | 11/20 | 24/52 | |
| % 2nd pts | 41% | 55% | 46% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 7 | 2 | 9 | |
| Converted | 7/17 | 2/5 | 9/22 | |
| Converted % | 41% | 40% | 41% | |
| Conceded | 9 | 2 | 11 | |
| Saved | 3/9 | 1/2 | 4 | |
| Saved % | 33% | 50% | 42% | |
| Times Broken | 6 | 1 | 7 | |
Head 2 Head
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Upcoming matches in the draw
- Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Danka KovinicKovinic (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Qinwen ZhengZheng – Alize CornetCornet (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Jessica PegulaPegula – Tamara ZidansekZidansek (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Irina-Camelia BeguBegu – Leolia JeanjeanJeanjean (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Paula Badosa GibertBadosa Gibert – Veronika KudermetovaKudermetova (2-3) – H2H and prediction
- Madison KeysKeys – Elena RybakinaRybakina (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Shelby RogersRogers – Darya KasatkinaKasatkina (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Camila GiorgiGiorgi – Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka (1-1) – H2H and prediction
- Victoria AzarenkaAzarenka – Jil TeichmannTeichmann (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Sloane StephensStephens – Diane ParryParry (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Martina TrevisanTrevisan – Aliaksandra SasnovichSasnovich (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Leylah Annie FernandezAnnie Fernandez – Amanda AnisimovaAnisimova (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Elise MertensMertens – Cori GauffGauff (0-1) – H2H and prediction
