Matteo Arnaldi and Francesco Maestrelli will face off in the final of the Francavilla Challenger for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Sunday at 3:00 pm on CENTER COURT. Here the head to head stats and relative prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Matteo Arnaldi who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Matteo Arnaldi is the pick to win this match.
Matteo Arnaldi -> 1.727
Francesco Maestrelli -> 2.11
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Prediction and head to head Matteo Arnaldi vs. Francesco Maestrelli
This will be the 2nd time that Matteo Arnaldi and Francesco Maestrelli face off. The head to head is 1-0 for Maestrelli (see full H2H stats), but they have never played each other on clay.
The last time that they locked horns, Maestrelli won 7-5 6-0 in the qualifications in Sultan back in 2021.
Matteo Arnaldi
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 20-16 | 10-8 | 9-6 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 51-26 | 21-15 | 23-7 | 4-3 | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 50-35 | 9-3 | 37-20 | 4-11 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 56-24 | 2-1 | 51-18 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 17-9 | 16-4 | 0-1 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-1 |
Ranked no. 280, Arnaldi got to the final after beating Francesco Forti 6-1 6-3, Pawel Cias 6-1 6-2, Dan Added 6-1 6-0 and Hernan Casanova 6-3 0-0 ret..
In the semifinal, Matteo defeated Casanova (6-3 0-0 ret.). During the match, Arnaldi scored 30 points vs Casanova’s 22. Matteo was exceptionally aggressive to blast 12 winners.
Regarding the service games, Arnaldi bagged 2 aces and he committed only 1 double fault. Matteo Arnaldi lost the serve once. Furthermore, Arnaldi put 69% of his first serves in, winning 60% (12/20) of the points behind his 1st serve and 67% (6/9) on the 2nd serve. The Italian was clinical in his return game without wasting any break point and break Casanova twice.
Overall Performance in this tournament
Matteo hasn’t conceded yet a set in this event to conquer 66% of the points he played.
Arnaldi has a solid win-loss record in the last 5 years having won 63% of his matches (106-61). 19-9 on clay in 2022. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this event, Arnaldi has a compiled74-37 win-loss record in the last 5 years on clay.
Arnaldi’s best result of the year was reaching the semifinal in the Split Challenger and the Francavilla Challenger.
The Italian has a composed 20-14 win-loss record in 2022, 19-9 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Francavilla Challenger
Arnaldi has never competed in this tournament before.
Francesco Maestrelli
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19-21 | 5-5 | 14-12 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 27-38 | 9-10 | 16-24 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 44-24 | 5-4 | 34-12 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 32-18 | 8-3 | 18-12 | 6-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 3-5 | 3-3 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 512, Maestrelli got to the final after beating Oleksii Krutykh 4-6 6-3 6-2, Billy Harris 2-6 6-3 6-2, Mathias Bourgue 3-6 6-3 6-1 and Alexis Galarneau 6-0 7-64.
In the semifinal, The Italian had a good straight sets win against Galarneau (6-0 7-64). During the match Maestrelli scored 76 points vs Galarneau’s 58. Maestrelli was pretty aggressive to blast 26 winners.
Talking about serving, Maestrelli fired 3 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Francesco Maestrelli lost the serve once and he saved 1 break points. Furthermore, Maestrelli put 61% of his first serves in, winning 70% (26/37) of the points behind his 1st serve and 67% (16/24) on the 2nd serve. Maestrelli broke Galarneau 4 times after converting 50% of his break points (4/8).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Italian has conceded 3 set in the tournament to win 54% of the points he played.
Francesco’s best result of the season was getting to the final in M25 Santa Margherita di Pula.
Francesco has a composed 21-9 win-loss record in 2022, 16-5 on clay (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Arnaldi | Maestrelli |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 4 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 9 | 11 |
| Tot Games | 53 | 96 |
| Pts | 200-111 | 344-291 |
| Total Points | 311 | 635 |
| Winners | 73 | 141 |
| %Winners | 37% | 41% |
Both Arnaldi and Maestrelli played 4 matches. At the moment, Francesco Maestrelli conceded 3 sets while Matteo Arnaldi hasn’t dropped a set so far. Arnaldi has played 2 set(s) less than Maestrelli (9 vs 11). Therefore, Arnaldi played 43 games less than Maestrelli. Matteo scored 73 winners (37% of the total points). On the other side, Maestrelli blasted 141 winners (41%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Arnaldi | Maestrelli |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 7 | 14 |
| Avg per match | 1.8 | 3.5 |
| 1st in | 107/157 | 198/308 |
| %1st in | 68% | 64% |
| 1st pts | 73/107 | 141/198 |
| %1st pts | 68% | 71% |
| 2nd pts | 34/50 | 63/110 |
| %2nd pts | 68% | 57% |
Arnaldi fired 7 aces (1.8 per match). Maestrelli made 14 aces (3.5 per match). Arnaldi won 68% points on his first serve. He pretty solid on his second serve to win 68% of the points. On the other side, Maestrelli won 71% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 57% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Arnaldi | Maestrelli |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 19 | 16 |
| Converted | 19/27 | 16/33 |
| % Converted | 70% | 48% |
| Conceded | 10 | 18 |
| Saved | 6 | 11 |
| % Saved | 60% | 61% |
| Times Broken | 4 | 7 |
The Italian broke his opponents 19 times with a 70% conversion rate. Matteo lost his serve 4 times and he saved 60% of the break points that he conceded. The Italian broke his opponents 16 times with a 48% conversion rate. Maestrelli conceded his serve 7 times and he saved 61% of the break points that he conceded.
| Arnaldi | ||||||
| R1 Forti |
R2 Cias |
1/4 Added |
1/2 Casanova |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-1 6-3 | 6-1 6-2 | 6-1 6-0 | 6-3 0-0 ret. | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | |
| Tot Games | 16 | 15 | 13 | 9 | 53 | |
| pts | 55-31 | 62-36 | 53-22 | 30-22 | 200-111 | |
| Total points | 86 | 98 | 75 | 52 | 311 | |
| Winners | 20 | 21 | 20 | 12 | 73 | |
| %Winners | 36% | 34% | 38% | 40% | 37% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | |
| 1st in | 24/40 | 36/51 | 27/37 | 20/29 | 107/157 | |
| % 1st in | 60% | 71% | 73% | 69% | 68% | |
| 1st pts | 20/24 | 21/36 | 20/27 | 12/20 | 73/107 | |
| % 1st pts | 83% | 58% | 74% | 60% | 68% | |
| 2nd pts | 10/16 | 9/15 | 9/10 | 6/9 | 34/50 | |
| % 2nd pts | 63% | 60% | 90% | 67% | 68% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 19 | |
| Converted | 5/8 | 7/9 | 5/8 | 2/2 | 19/27 | |
| Converted % | 63% | 78% | 63% | 100% | 70% | |
| Conceded | 2 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 10 | |
| Saved | 1/2 | 5/7 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 6 | |
| Saved % | 50% | 71% | – | 0% | 30% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | |
| Maestrelli | ||||||
| R1 Krutykh |
R2 Harris |
1/4 Bourgue |
1/2 Galarneau |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 4-6 6-3 6-2 | 2-6 6-3 6-2 | 3-6 6-3 6-1 | 6-0 7-64 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 11 | |
| Tot Games | 27 | 25 | 25 | 19 | 96 | |
| pts | 87-77 | 104-94 | 77-62 | 76-58 | 344-291 | |
| Total points | 164 | 198 | 139 | 134 | 635 | |
| Winners | 44 | 38 | 33 | 26 | 141 | |
| %Winners | 51% | 37% | 43% | 34% | 41% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 4 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 14 | |
| Double Faults | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 12 | |
| 1st in | 52/80 | 62/96 | 47/71 | 37/61 | 198/308 | |
| % 1st in | 65% | 65% | 66% | 61% | 64% | |
| 1st pts | 44/52 | 38/62 | 33/47 | 26/37 | 141/198 | |
| % 1st pts | 85% | 61% | 70% | 70% | 71% | |
| 2nd pts | 12/28 | 20/34 | 15/24 | 16/24 | 63/110 | |
| % 2nd pts | 43% | 59% | 63% | 67% | 57% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 16 | |
| Converted | 3/9 | 4/11 | 5/5 | 4/8 | 16/33 | |
| Converted % | 33% | 36% | 100% | 50% | 48% | |
| Conceded | 3 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 18 | |
| Saved | 2/3 | 5/8 | 3/5 | 1/2 | 11 | |
| Saved % | 67% | 63% | 60% | 50% | 60% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | |
Head 2 Head
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Upcoming matches in the draw
- Francesco MaestrelliMaestrelli – (1-0) – H2H and prediction
