Mathias Bourgue and Francesco Maestrelli will face off in the quarter of the Francavilla Challenger for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Friday at 5:00 pm on CENTER COURT. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Francesco Maestrelli who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Francesco Maestrelli is the pick to win this match.
Francesco Maestrelli -> 1.9
Mathias Bourgue -> 1.9
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Prediction and head to head Mathias Bourgue vs. Francesco Maestrelli
There is no head to head record between Mathias Bourgue and Francesco Maestrelli since this will be the first time that they will clash against each other in the main tour.
Mathias Bourgue
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 13-20 | 0-1 | 8-14 | 5-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 45-28 | 6-4 | 22-13 | 16-10 | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| 2022 | 22-19 | 5-5 | 7-10 | 10-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 29-25 | 6-7 | 11-9 | 12-8 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 18-14 | 2-2 | 7-7 | 9-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 314, the French player reached the quarter after defeating Davide Galoppini 4-6 6-0 6-1 and Yibing Wu 7-5 3-0 ret..
In the 2nd round, The French player had a good straight sets win against Wu (7-5 3-0 ret.). During the match, Bourgue scored 56 points vs Wu’s 46. Bourgue was quite aggressive to blast 16 winners.
Regarding the service games, Bourgue was unable to score even 1 ace in the course of the match and he was pretty solid in conceding no double faults. Mathias Bourgue lost the serve once and he saved 7 break points. Furthermore, Bourgue put 54% of his first serves in, winning 55% (16/29) of the points behind his 1st serve and 64% (16/25) on the 2nd serve. The French player broke Wu 4 times after converting 80% of his break points (4/5).
Bourgue has a solid record in the last 10 years having won 61% of his matches (359-234). 6-8 on clay in 2022. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this event, Bourgue has an overall 215-133 record in the last years on clay.
Mathias has an aggregate 10-13 win-loss record in 2022, 6-8 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Francavilla Challenger
Francesco Maestrelli
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19-21 | 5-5 | 14-12 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 27-38 | 9-10 | 16-24 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 44-24 | 5-4 | 34-12 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 32-18 | 8-3 | 18-12 | 6-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 3-5 | 3-3 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 512, Maestrelli got to the quarter after beating Oleksii Krutykh 4-6 6-3 6-2 and Billy Harris 2-6 6-3 6-2.
In the 2nd round against Harris, Maestrelli recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (2-6 6-3 6-2). During the match Maestrelli scored 104 points vs Harris’s 94. Francesco was extremely aggressive to blast 38 winners.
Talking about serving, Maestrelli bagged 5 aces and he committed only 4 double faults. Francesco Maestrelli lost the serve 3 times and he saved 5 break points. Furthermore, Maestrelli put 65% of his first serves in, winning 61% (38/62) of the points behind his 1st serve and 59% (20/34) on the 2nd serve. Francesco broke Harris 4 times after converting 36% of his break points (4/11).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Francesco has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 53% of the points he played.
The Italian’s best result of the current season was getting to the final in M25 Santa Margherita di Pula.
The Italian has a composed 19-9 win-loss record in 2022, 14-5 on clay (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Bourgue | Maestrelli |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 2 |
| Tot Set | 6 | 6 |
| Tot Games | 38 | 52 |
| Pts | 148-120 | 191-171 |
| Total Points | 268 | 362 |
| Winners | 43 | 82 |
| %Winners | 29% | 43% |
Both Bourgue and Maestrelli played 2 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Mathias Bourgue lost 1 set, while Francesco Maestrelli lost 2 sets. Talking about their workload, Bourgue and Maestrelli have played the same amount of sets 6. However, Bourgue played 14 games less than Maestrelli. Mathias scored 43 winners (29% of the total points). On the other side, Maestrelli recorded 82 winners (43%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Bourgue | Maestrelli |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 0 | 9 |
| Avg per match | 0 | 4.5 |
| 1st in | 76/131 | 114/176 |
| %1st in | 58% | 65% |
| 1st pts | 43/76 | 82/114 |
| %1st pts | 57% | 72% |
| 2nd pts | 35/55 | 32/62 |
| %2nd pts | 64% | 52% |
Bourgue didn’t manage to fire a single ace to far. Maestrelli struck 9 aces (4.5 per match). Bourgue won 57% points behind his first serve. He very solid his second serve to win 64% of the points. On the other side, Maestrelli won 72% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 52% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Bourgue | Maestrelli |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 11 | 7 |
| Converted | 11/14 | 7/20 |
| % Converted | 79% | 35% |
| Conceded | 18 | 11 |
| Saved | 15 | 7 |
| % Saved | 83% | 64% |
| Times Broken | 3 | 4 |
Bourgue broke his opponents 11 times with a 79% conversion rate. Mathias conceded his serve 3 times and he saved 83% of the break points that he conceded. The Italian broke his opponents 7 times with a 35% conversion rate. Francesco conceded his serve 4 times and he saved 64% of the break points that he conceded.
| Bourgue | ||||
| R1 Galoppini |
R2 Wu |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 4-6 6-0 6-1 | 7-5 3-0 ret. | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 5 | |
| Tot Games | 23 | 15 | 38 | |
| pts | 92-74 | 56-46 | 148-120 | |
| Total points | 166 | 102 | 268 | |
| Winners | 27 | 16 | 43 | |
| %Winners | 29% | 29% | 29% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Double Faults | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1st in | 47/77 | 29/54 | 76/131 | |
| % 1st in | 61% | 54% | 58% | |
| 1st pts | 27/47 | 16/29 | 43/76 | |
| % 1st pts | 57% | 55% | 57% | |
| 2nd pts | 19/30 | 16/25 | 35/55 | |
| % 2nd pts | 63% | 64% | 64% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 7 | 4 | 11 | |
| Converted | 7/9 | 4/5 | 11/14 | |
| Converted % | 78% | 80% | 79% | |
| Conceded | 10 | 8 | 18 | |
| Saved | 8/10 | 7/8 | 15 | |
| Saved % | 80% | 88% | 84% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| Maestrelli | ||||
| R1 Krutykh |
R2 Harris |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 4-6 6-3 6-2 | 2-6 6-3 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | 6 | |
| Tot Games | 27 | 25 | 52 | |
| pts | 87-77 | 104-94 | 191-171 | |
| Total points | 164 | 198 | 362 | |
| Winners | 44 | 38 | 82 | |
| %Winners | 51% | 37% | 43% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 4 | 5 | 9 | |
| Double Faults | 4 | 4 | 8 | |
| 1st in | 52/80 | 62/96 | 114/176 | |
| % 1st in | 65% | 65% | 65% | |
| 1st pts | 44/52 | 38/62 | 82/114 | |
| % 1st pts | 85% | 61% | 72% | |
| 2nd pts | 12/28 | 20/34 | 32/62 | |
| % 2nd pts | 43% | 59% | 52% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 3 | 4 | 7 | |
| Converted | 3/9 | 4/11 | 7/20 | |
| Converted % | 33% | 36% | 35% | |
| Conceded | 3 | 8 | 11 | |
| Saved | 2/3 | 5/8 | 7 | |
| Saved % | 67% | 63% | 65% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 3 | 4 | |
Head 2 Head
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