Alex De Minaur and Tommy Paul will clash against each other in the 2nd round of the Internazionali BNL d’Italia for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Wednesday at 4:00 pm on COURT 1. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Alex De Minaur who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Alex De Minaur is the pick to win this match.
Alex De Minaur -> 1.66
Tommy Paul -> 2.28

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Prediction and head to head Alex De Minaur vs. Tommy Paul

This will be the 2nd time that Alex De Minaur and Tommy Paul face off. The head to head is 1-0 for De Minaur (see full H2H stats), but they have never competed against each other on clay.

The last time that they squared off, De Minaur won 7-6(2) 6-4 in the 3rd round in Indian wells back in March 2022.

Highlights Alex De Minaur vs Tommy Paul – Indian wells 15-March-2022

Alex De Minaur

Alex De Minaur

0 - 0win/loss

Rank
7
High
6
LWLLLWWLWW
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 56-24 30-11 10-5 13-6 3-2 0-0
2024 47-21 19-6 10-5 11-9 7-1 0-0
2023 46-26 26-12 4-5 10-6 6-3 0-0
2022 47-25 19-10 9-6 12-5 7-4 0-0
2021 25-25 10-10 4-5 3-7 8-3 0-0

Ranked no. 22, the Australian reached the 2nd round after defeating Dusan Lajovic 6-4 6-1.

In the 1st round, The Australian had a good straight sets win against Lajovic (6-4 6-1). During the match, De Minaur scored 75 points vs Lajovic’s 61. Alex was very aggressive to blast 37 winners.

Talking about the service games, De Minaur scored just 1 ace throughout the match and he committed only 2 double faults. Alex De Minaur conceded no breaks for the entire match to save 7 break points. Furthermore, De Minaur put 61% of his first serves in, winning 77% (37/48) of the points behind his 1st serve and 39% (12/31) on the 2nd serve. The Australian broke Lajovic 3 times after converting 33% of his break points (3/9).

De Minaur has a solid match record in the last 8 years having won 63% of his matches (243-145). 6-3 on clay in 2022. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this competition, De Minaur has a compiled48-38 win-loss record in the last 8 years on clay.

Alex’s best result of the current year was getting to the semifinal in Barcelona.

De Minaur has a compiled 18-9 win-loss record in 2022, 6-3 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Rome

Rome
De Minaur's Record

Tommy Paul

Tommy Paul

0 - 0win/loss

Rank
20
High
8
LWWLWLWLLW
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 29-13 13-6 12-4 3-1 1-2 0-0
2024 45-20 17-12 10-4 8-2 10-2 0-0
2023 46-29 29-13 5-6 3-5 9-5 0-0
2022 39-27 21-12 2-6 9-5 7-4 0-0
2021 33-23 12-12 9-7 12-4 0-0 0-0

Ranked no. 34, Tommy got to the 2nd round after defeating Albert Ramos-Vinolas 6-4 6-4.

In the 1st round, The American had a good straight sets win against Ramos-Vinolas (6-4 6-4). During the match Paul scored 61 points vs Ramos-Vinolas’s 54. The American was very aggressive to blast 22 winners.

Talking about serving, Paul scored just 1 ace during the entire match and he committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Tommy Paul lost the serve 3 times and he saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Paul put 60% of his first serves in, winning 69% (22/32) of the points behind his 1st serve and 48% (10/21) on the 2nd serve. Tommy broke Ramos-Vinolas 5 times after converting 50% of his break points (5/10).

The American’s best result of the season was reaching the semifinal in Delray Beach.

The American has an overall 16-10 win-loss record in 2022, 2-3 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Rome

Previously, his best result was reaching the 1st round in 2021. See his history.

Rome
Paul's Record

H2H Performance in the tournament

A.De Minaur
T.Paul
1h:40
1h:40
Time on court​
1h:33
1h:33
1h:40
1h:40
Last match​
1h:33
1h:33
1
1
Match played
1
1
17
17
Games Played​
20
20
2
2
Set played​​
2
2
75
75
Total points​
61
61
75
75
Avg point​
61
61
37
37
Winners
22
22
37
37
Avg Winners​
22
22
49%
49%
Ratio winners
36%
36%
-- Serve --
1
1
Aces
1
1
1
1
Avg Aces
1
1
2
2
Double Faults
1
1
2
2
Avg Double Faults
1
1
37/48
37/48
1st won total​
22/32
22/32
!
77%
77%
1st won %
69%
69%
12/31
12/31
2nd won total​
10/21
10/21
!
39%
39%
2nd won %
48%
48%
-- Break Points --
3/9
3/9
BP won
5/10
5/10
3/9
3/9
Avg BP won
5/10
5/10
33%
33%
Won
50%
50%
7
7
Conceded
5
5
7
7
Avg Conceded
5
5
0
0
Broken
3
3
!
0
0
Avg Broken
3
3
7
7
Saved
2
2

Matches, sets, games and points

Points De Minaur Paul
Match played 1 1
Tot Set 2 2
Tot Games 17 20
Pts 75-61 61-54
Total Points 136 115
Winners 37 22
%Winners 49% 36%

Both De Minaur and Paul played 1 match. Both players have not lost a single set in this event so far. Talking about their workload, De Minaur and Paul have played the same amount of sets 2. However, De Minaur played 3 games less than Paul. Alex scored 37 winners (49% of the total points). On the other side, Paul scored 22 winners (36%).

Serve Performance

Serve De Minaur Paul
Aces 1 1
Avg per match 1 1
1st in 48/79 32/53
%1st in 61% 60%
1st pts 37/48 22/32
%1st pts 77% 69%
2nd pts 12/31 10/21
%2nd pts 39% 48%

De Minaur fired 1 ace . Paul also blasted 1 ace . De Minaur won 77% points behind his first serve. He quite strong on his second serve to win 39% of the points. On the other side, Paul won 69% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 48% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks De Minaur Paul
Won 3 5
Converted 3/9 5/10
% Converted 33% 50%
Conceded 7 5
Saved 7 2
% Saved 100% 40%
Times Broken 0 3

Alex broke his opponent 3 times with a 33% conversion rate. De Minaur very solid his serve as he has never dropped a single service game after saving 7 break points. The American broke his opponent 5 times with a 50% conversion rate. Paul conceded his serve 3 times and he saved 40% of the break points that he conceded.

De Minaur
R1
Lajovic
Total
Score 6-4 6-1
Tot Set 2 2
Tot Games 17 17
pts 75-61 75-61
Total points 136 136
Winners 37 37
%Winners 49% 49%
SERVE
Aces 1 1
Double Faults 2 2
1st in 48/79 48/79
% 1st in 61% 61%
1st pts 37/48 37/48
% 1st pts 77% 77%
2nd pts 12/31 12/31
% 2nd pts 39% 39%
Breaks
Won 3 3
Converted 3/9 3/9
Converted % 33% 33%
Conceded 7 7
Saved 7/7 7
Saved % 100% 100%
Times Broken 0 0
Paul
R1
Ramos-Vinolas
Total
Score 6-4 6-4
Tot Set 2 2
Tot Games 20 20
pts 61-54 61-54
Total points 115 115
Winners 22 22
%Winners 36% 36%
SERVE
Aces 1 1
Double Faults 1 1
1st in 32/53 32/53
% 1st in 60% 60%
1st pts 22/32 22/32
% 1st pts 69% 69%
2nd pts 10/21 10/21
% 2nd pts 48% 48%
Breaks
Won 5 5
Converted 5/10 5/10
Converted % 50% 50%
Conceded 5 5
Saved 2/5 2
Saved % 40% 40%
Times Broken 3 3

Tennis Scores in Rome

Upcoming matches in the draw