Alex De Minaur and Tommy Paul will clash against each other in the 2nd round of the Internazionali BNL d’Italia for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Wednesday at 4:00 pm on COURT 1. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Alex De Minaur who should win in 3 sets.
Alex De Minaur -> 1.66
Tommy Paul -> 2.28
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Prediction and head to head Alex De Minaur vs. Tommy Paul
This will be the 2nd time that Alex De Minaur and Tommy Paul face off. The head to head is 1-0 for De Minaur (see full H2H stats), but they have never competed against each other on clay.
The last time that they squared off, De Minaur won 7-6(2) 6-4 in the 3rd round in Indian wells back in March 2022.
Highlights Alex De Minaur vs Tommy Paul – Indian wells 15-March-2022
Alex De Minaur
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 56-24 | 30-11 | 10-5 | 13-6 | 3-2 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 47-21 | 19-6 | 10-5 | 11-9 | 7-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 46-26 | 26-12 | 4-5 | 10-6 | 6-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 47-25 | 19-10 | 9-6 | 12-5 | 7-4 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 25-25 | 10-10 | 4-5 | 3-7 | 8-3 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 22, the Australian reached the 2nd round after defeating Dusan Lajovic 6-4 6-1.
In the 1st round, The Australian had a good straight sets win against Lajovic (6-4 6-1). During the match, De Minaur scored 75 points vs Lajovic’s 61. Alex was very aggressive to blast 37 winners.
Talking about the service games, De Minaur scored just 1 ace throughout the match and he committed only 2 double faults. Alex De Minaur conceded no breaks for the entire match to save 7 break points. Furthermore, De Minaur put 61% of his first serves in, winning 77% (37/48) of the points behind his 1st serve and 39% (12/31) on the 2nd serve. The Australian broke Lajovic 3 times after converting 33% of his break points (3/9).
De Minaur has a solid match record in the last 8 years having won 63% of his matches (243-145). 6-3 on clay in 2022. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this competition, De Minaur has a compiled48-38 win-loss record in the last 8 years on clay.
Alex’s best result of the current year was getting to the semifinal in Barcelona.
De Minaur has a compiled 18-9 win-loss record in 2022, 6-3 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Rome
Tommy Paul
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 29-13 | 13-6 | 12-4 | 3-1 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 45-20 | 17-12 | 10-4 | 8-2 | 10-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 46-29 | 29-13 | 5-6 | 3-5 | 9-5 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 39-27 | 21-12 | 2-6 | 9-5 | 7-4 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 33-23 | 12-12 | 9-7 | 12-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 34, Tommy got to the 2nd round after defeating Albert Ramos-Vinolas 6-4 6-4.
In the 1st round, The American had a good straight sets win against Ramos-Vinolas (6-4 6-4). During the match Paul scored 61 points vs Ramos-Vinolas’s 54. The American was very aggressive to blast 22 winners.
Talking about serving, Paul scored just 1 ace during the entire match and he committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Tommy Paul lost the serve 3 times and he saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Paul put 60% of his first serves in, winning 69% (22/32) of the points behind his 1st serve and 48% (10/21) on the 2nd serve. Tommy broke Ramos-Vinolas 5 times after converting 50% of his break points (5/10).
The American’s best result of the season was reaching the semifinal in Delray Beach.
The American has an overall 16-10 win-loss record in 2022, 2-3 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Rome
Previously, his best result was reaching the 1st round in 2021. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | De Minaur | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 1 | 1 |
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 |
| Tot Games | 17 | 20 |
| Pts | 75-61 | 61-54 |
| Total Points | 136 | 115 |
| Winners | 37 | 22 |
| %Winners | 49% | 36% |
Both De Minaur and Paul played 1 match. Both players have not lost a single set in this event so far. Talking about their workload, De Minaur and Paul have played the same amount of sets 2. However, De Minaur played 3 games less than Paul. Alex scored 37 winners (49% of the total points). On the other side, Paul scored 22 winners (36%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | De Minaur | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 1 | 1 |
| Avg per match | 1 | 1 |
| 1st in | 48/79 | 32/53 |
| %1st in | 61% | 60% |
| 1st pts | 37/48 | 22/32 |
| %1st pts | 77% | 69% |
| 2nd pts | 12/31 | 10/21 |
| %2nd pts | 39% | 48% |
De Minaur fired 1 ace . Paul also blasted 1 ace . De Minaur won 77% points behind his first serve. He quite strong on his second serve to win 39% of the points. On the other side, Paul won 69% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 48% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | De Minaur | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 3 | 5 |
| Converted | 3/9 | 5/10 |
| % Converted | 33% | 50% |
| Conceded | 7 | 5 |
| Saved | 7 | 2 |
| % Saved | 100% | 40% |
| Times Broken | 0 | 3 |
Alex broke his opponent 3 times with a 33% conversion rate. De Minaur very solid his serve as he has never dropped a single service game after saving 7 break points. The American broke his opponent 5 times with a 50% conversion rate. Paul conceded his serve 3 times and he saved 40% of the break points that he conceded.
| De Minaur | |||
| R1 Lajovic | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-1 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | |
| Tot Games | 17 | 17 | |
| pts | 75-61 | 75-61 | |
| Total points | 136 | 136 | |
| Winners | 37 | 37 | |
| %Winners | 49% | 49% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 1 | 1 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 2 | |
| 1st in | 48/79 | 48/79 | |
| % 1st in | 61% | 61% | |
| 1st pts | 37/48 | 37/48 | |
| % 1st pts | 77% | 77% | |
| 2nd pts | 12/31 | 12/31 | |
| % 2nd pts | 39% | 39% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 3 | 3 | |
| Converted | 3/9 | 3/9 | |
| Converted % | 33% | 33% | |
| Conceded | 7 | 7 | |
| Saved | 7/7 | 7 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 100% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 0 | |
| Paul | |||
| R1 Ramos-Vinolas | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | |
| Tot Games | 20 | 20 | |
| pts | 61-54 | 61-54 | |
| Total points | 115 | 115 | |
| Winners | 22 | 22 | |
| %Winners | 36% | 36% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 1 | 1 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 1 | |
| 1st in | 32/53 | 32/53 | |
| % 1st in | 60% | 60% | |
| 1st pts | 22/32 | 22/32 | |
| % 1st pts | 69% | 69% | |
| 2nd pts | 10/21 | 10/21 | |
| % 2nd pts | 48% | 48% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 5 | 5 | |
| Converted | 5/10 | 5/10 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 50% | |
| Conceded | 5 | 5 | |
| Saved | 2/5 | 2 | |
| Saved % | 40% | 40% | |
| Times Broken | 3 | 3 | |
Tennis Scores in Rome
- Denis ShapovalovShapovalov – Nikoloz BasilashviliBasilashvili (6-4 7-65) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Filip KrajinovicKrajinovic – Andrey RublevRublev (6-2 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Casper RuudRuud – Botic Van De ZandschulpVan De Zandschulp (6-74 6-2 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Novak DjokovicDjokovic – Aslan KaratsevKaratsev (6-3 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Cristian GarinGarin – Emil RuusuvuoriRuusuvuori (6-4 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Felix Auger AliassimeAuger Aliassime – Alejandro Davidovich FokinaDavidovich Fokina (4-6 7-62 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Rafael NadalNadal – John IsnerIsner (7-1) – H2H and prediction
- Fabio FogniniFognini – Jannik SinnerSinner (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Marin CilicCilic – Cameron NorrieNorrie (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- David GoffinGoffin – Jenson BrooksbyBrooksby (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Grigor DimitrovDimitrov – Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas (1-4) – H2H and prediction
- Pablo Carreno-BustaCarreno-Busta – Karen KhachanovKhachanov (3-4) – H2H and prediction
- Diego Sebastian SchwartzmanSebastian Schwartzman – Marcos GironGiron (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Laslo DjereDjere – Stan WawrinkaWawrinka (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Alex De MinaurDe Minaur – Tommy PaulPaul (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Sebastian BaezBaez – Alexander ZverevZverev (0-0) – H2H and prediction