Ons Jabeur and Jessica Pegula will play each other in the final of the Mutua Madrid Open for the 5th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Saturday at 6:30 pm on MANOLO SANTANA STADIUM. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Ons Jabeur who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Ons Jabeur is the pick to win this match.
Ons Jabeur -> 1.56
Jessica Pegula -> 2.56
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Prediction and head to head Ons Jabeur vs. Jessica Pegula
This will be the 5th time that Ons Jabeur and Jessica Pegula face off. The head to head is 2-2 for Jabeur and Pegula (see full H2H stats), but they have never competed against each other on clay.
The last time that they played each other, Jabeur won 6-3 6-1 in the 2nd round in Dubai back in February 2022.
Ons Jabeur
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 16-14 | 2-6 | 8-5 | 0-0 | 6-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 36-17 | 18-11 | 11-3 | 0-0 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 47-17 | 19-12 | 17-4 | 0-0 | 11-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 48-19 | 25-12 | 13-4 | 0-1 | 10-2 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 23-11 | 18-8 | 3-2 | 2-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 10, the Tunisian got to the final after beating Jasmine Paolini 7-69 6-1, Varvara Gracheva 7-5 0-6 6-4, Belinda Bencic 6-2 3-6 6-2, Simona Halep 6-3 6-2 and Ekaterina Alexandrova 6-2 6-3.
In the semifinal, Jabeur had a good straight sets win against Alexandrova (6-2 6-3). During the match, Jabeur scored 59 points vs Alexandrova’s 40. Jabeur was extremely aggressive to blast 26 winners.
Talking about the service games, Jabeur managed to score 5 aces and she committed only 1 double fault. Overall, Ons Jabeur was quite effective on serve to win 81% (26/32) of her 1st serve and 59% (13/22) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent her to concede the serve once. Jabeur broke Alexandrova 4 times after converting 80% of her break points (4/5).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Jabeur has conceded 2 set in this event to conquer 55% of the points she played.
Jabeur has a solid match record in the last 10 years having won 63% of her matches (310-179). 11-2 on clay in 2022. Talking about her performance on the same surface of this tournament, Jabeur has a composed 91-45 match record in the last years on clay.
Jabeur’s best result of the year was reaching the final in Charleston.
Jabeur has a compiled 19-7 win-loss record in 2022, 11-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Madrid
Jessica Pegula
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 36-12 | 26-7 | 4-2 | 0-0 | 6-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 59-18 | 45-12 | 8-4 | 0-0 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 42-21 | 28-15 | 11-4 | 1-1 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 39-19 | 29-12 | 6-4 | 0-0 | 4-3 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 17-9 | 16-7 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 14, Pegula reached the final after beating Camila Giorgi 7-5 2-6 7-5, Kaia Kanepi 6-3 6-3, Bianca Vanessa Andreescu 7-5 6-1, Sara Sorribes Tormo 6-4 6-2 and Jil Teichmann 6-3 6-4.
In the semifinal, Pegula had a good straight sets win against Belen Teichmann (6-3 6-4). During the match Pegula scored 64 points vs Belen Teichmann’s 50. Jessica was exceptionally aggressive to blast 22 winners.
Talking about serving, Pegula wasn’t able to score even 1 ace for the entire match and she committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Jessica Pegula lost the serve twice and she saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Pegula put 60% of her first serves in, winning 63% (22/35) of the points behind her 1st serve and 70% (16/23) on the 2nd serve. Pegula broke Belen Teichmann 4 times after converting 50% of her break points (4/8).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The American has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 55% of the points she played.
Pegula’s best result of the current year was reaching the semifinal in Miami and Madrid.
Jessica has an overall 18-9 win-loss record in 2022, 6-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Madrid
Previously, her best result was reaching the 3rd round in 2021. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Jabeur | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 5 | 5 |
| Tot Set | 12 | 11 |
| Tot Games | 107 | 106 |
| Pts | 381-311 | 409-338 |
| Total Points | 692 | 747 |
| Winners | 149 | 137 |
| %Winners | 39% | 33% |
Both Jabeur and Pegula played 5 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Ons Jabeur surrendered 2 sets, while Jessica Pegula surrendered 1 set. Jabeur has played 1 set more than Pegula (12 vs 11). Therefore, Jabeur played 1 game more than Pegula. Jabeur scored 149 winners (39% of the total points). On the other side, The American scored 137 winners (33%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Jabeur | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 22 | 13 |
| Avg per match | 4.4 | 2.6 |
| 1st in | 201/343 | 208/371 |
| %1st in | 59% | 56% |
| 1st pts | 149/201 | 137/208 |
| %1st pts | 74% | 66% |
| 2nd pts | 64/142 | 80/163 |
| %2nd pts | 45% | 49% |
Jabeur bagged 22 aces (4.4 per match). Pegula scored 13 aces (2.6 per match). Jabeur won 74% points on her first serve. She pretty solid on her second serve to win 45% of the points. On the other side, Pegula won 66% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 49% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Jabeur | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 24 | 27 |
| Converted | 24/50 | 27/62 |
| % Converted | 48% | 44% |
| Conceded | 29 | 43 |
| Saved | 15 | 27 |
| % Saved | 52% | 63% |
| Times Broken | 14 | 16 |
Jabeur broke her opponents 24 times with a 48% conversion rate. The Tunisian dropped her serve 14 times and she saved 52% of the break points that she conceded. Jessica broke her opponents 27 times with a 44% conversion rate. Jessica conceded her serve 16 times and she saved 63% of the break points that she conceded.
| Jabeur | |||||||
| R1 Paolini |
R2 Gracheva |
R3 Bencic |
1/4 Halep |
1/2 Alexandrova |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-69 6-1 | 7-5 0-6 6-4 | 6-2 3-6 6-2 | 6-3 6-2 | 6-2 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 | |
| Tot Games | 20 | 28 | 25 | 17 | 17 | 107 | |
| pts | 76-59 | 86-87 | 94-80 | 66-45 | 59-40 | 381-311 | |
| Total points | 135 | 173 | 174 | 111 | 99 | 692 | |
| Winners | 30 | 24 | 41 | 28 | 26 | 149 | |
| %Winners | 39% | 28% | 44% | 42% | 44% | 39% | |
| SERVE | |||||||
| Aces | 5 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 22 | |
| Double Faults | 4 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 14 | |
| 1st in | 46/69 | 37/73 | 50/80 | 36/67 | 32/54 | 201/343 | |
| % 1st in | 67% | 51% | 63% | 54% | 59% | 59% | |
| 1st pts | 30/46 | 24/37 | 41/50 | 28/36 | 26/32 | 149/201 | |
| % 1st pts | 65% | 65% | 82% | 78% | 81% | 74% | |
| 2nd pts | 9/23 | 13/36 | 13/30 | 16/31 | 13/22 | 64/142 | |
| % 2nd pts | 39% | 36% | 43% | 52% | 59% | 45% | |
| Breaks | |||||||
| Won | 6 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 24 | |
| Converted | 6/12 | 6/17 | 4/11 | 4/5 | 4/5 | 24/50 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 35% | 36% | 80% | 80% | 48% | |
| Conceded | 7 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 29 | |
| Saved | 3/7 | 2/9 | 5/6 | 3/4 | 2/3 | 15 | |
| Saved % | 43% | 22% | 83% | 75% | 67% | 58% | |
| Times Broken | 4 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 14 | |
| Pegula | |||||||
| R1 Giorgi |
R2 Kanepi |
R3 Andreescu |
1/4 Sorribes Tormo |
1/2 Belen Teichmann |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-5 2-6 7-5 | 6-3 6-3 | 7-5 6-1 | 6-4 6-2 | 6-3 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 | |
| Tot Games | 32 | 18 | 19 | 18 | 19 | 106 | |
| pts | 114-119 | 68-44 | 89-68 | 74-57 | 64-50 | 409-338 | |
| Total points | 233 | 112 | 157 | 131 | 114 | 747 | |
| Winners | 36 | 26 | 36 | 17 | 22 | 137 | |
| %Winners | 32% | 38% | 40% | 23% | 34% | 33% | |
| SERVE | |||||||
| Aces | 6 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 13 | |
| Double Faults | 7 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 16 | |
| 1st in | 53/104 | 36/58 | 48/84 | 36/67 | 35/58 | 208/371 | |
| % 1st in | 51% | 62% | 57% | 54% | 60% | 56% | |
| 1st pts | 36/53 | 26/36 | 36/48 | 17/36 | 22/35 | 137/208 | |
| % 1st pts | 68% | 72% | 75% | 47% | 63% | 66% | |
| 2nd pts | 25/51 | 11/22 | 12/36 | 16/31 | 16/23 | 80/163 | |
| % 2nd pts | 49% | 50% | 33% | 52% | 70% | 49% | |
| Breaks | |||||||
| Won | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 27 | |
| Converted | 4/14 | 5/6 | 6/21 | 8/13 | 4/8 | 27/62 | |
| Converted % | 29% | 83% | 29% | 62% | 50% | 44% | |
| Conceded | 11 | 4 | 15 | 9 | 4 | 43 | |
| Saved | 7/11 | 2/4 | 12/15 | 4/9 | 2/4 | 27 | |
| Saved % | 64% | 50% | 80% | 44% | 50% | 58% | |
| Times Broken | 4 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 16 | |
Head 2 Head
LLWWLWWLWW
LLWWWWWWWW Tennis Scores in Madrid
- Alexander ZverevZverev – Kevin AndersonAnderson (6-4 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Jessica PegulaPegula – Ons JabeurJabeur (2-2) – H2H and prediction
