Frances Tiafoe and Sebastian Baez will face off in the final of the Millennium Estoril Open for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Sunday at 3:30 pm on ESTÁDIO MILLENNIUM. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Frances Tiafoe who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Frances Tiafoe is the pick to win this match.
Frances Tiafoe -> 1.88
Sebastian Baez -> 2
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Prediction and head to head Frances Tiafoe vs. Sebastian Baez
There is no head to head record between Frances Tiafoe and Sebastian Baez since this will be the first time that they will fight against each other in the main tour.
Frances Tiafoe
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 15-16 | 6-6 | 5-6 | 1-1 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 40-21 | 21-10 | 8-4 | 4-5 | 7-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 35-25 | 19-11 | 8-6 | 5-5 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 42-27 | 19-13 | 4-7 | 10-4 | 9-3 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 19-15 | 7-9 | 6-3 | 6-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 29, the American got to the final after beating Dusan Lajovic 2-6 7-5 6-0, Nuno Borges 7-64 4-6 6-0, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 7-65 5-7 7-5 and Sebastian Korda 4-6 7-62 6-4.
In the semifinal against Korda, Francis recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (4-6 7-62 6-4). During the match, Tiafoe scored 120 points vs Korda’s 114. Tiafoe was quite aggressive to blast 44 winners.
Talking about the service games, Tiafoe made 8 aces and he was exceptionally solid in conceding no double faults. Frances Tiafoe lost the serve 5 times and he saved 9 break points. Furthermore, Tiafoe put 54% of his first serves in, winning 65% (44/68) of the points behind his 1st serve and 49% (29/59) on the 2nd serve. Tiafoe broke Korda 5 times after converting 71% of his break points (5/7).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Tiafoe has surrendered 4 set in this competition to conquer 52% of the points he played.
Tiafoe has a winning match record in the last 9 years having won 59% of his matches (277-194). 7-2 on clay in 2022. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Tiafoe has an aggregate95-51 win-loss record in the last 9 years on clay.
Francis’s best result of the season was getting to the semifinal in Estoril.
Tiafoe has an aggregate 11-7 win-loss record in 2022, 7-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Estoril
Sebastian Baez
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 23-16 | 3-5 | 20-8 | 0-0 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 33-27 | 9-7 | 22-13 | 1-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 35-32 | 6-12 | 27-12 | 0-6 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 56-16 | 2-1 | 52-12 | 2-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 28-13 | 10-3 | 18-9 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 59 (career-high), the Argentine got to the final after beating Joao Sousa 6-1 6-3, Marin Cilic 1-6 6-1 6-4, Richard Gasquet 3-6 6-1 6-4 and Albert Ramos-Vinolas 6-3 6-77 6-0.
In the semifinal, Baez defeated Ramos-Vinolas (6-3 6-77 6-0). During the match Baez scored 113 points vs Ramos-Vinolas’s 89. The Argentine was exceptionally aggressive to blast 50 winners.
Talking about serving, Baez blasted 3 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Sebastian Baez was very effective on serve to win 74% (50/68) of his 1st serve and 56% (14/25) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Sebastian broke Ramos-Vinolas 4 times after converting 25% of his break points (4/16).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Sebastian has conceded 3 set in the tournament to win 55% of the points he played.
Sebastian’s best result of the current year was reaching the final in Santiago.
Baez has a compiled 21-13 win-loss record in 2022, 16-6 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Estoril
Baez has never competed in this tournament before.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Tiafoe | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 4 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 12 | 11 |
| Tot Games | 125 | 94 |
| Pts | 429-404 | 326-268 |
| Total Points | 833 | 594 |
| Winners | 166 | 146 |
| %Winners | 39% | 45% |
Both Tiafoe and Baez played 4 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Frances Tiafoe surrendered 4 sets, while Sebastian Baez conceded 3 sets. Tiafoe has played 1 set more than Baez (12 vs 11). Therefore, Tiafoe played 31 games more than Baez. Tiafoe scored 166 winners (39% of the total points). On the other side, Baez struck 146 winners (45%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Tiafoe | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 20 | 10 |
| Avg per match | 5 | 2.5 |
| 1st in | 248/439 | 207/285 |
| %1st in | 56% | 73% |
| 1st pts | 166/248 | 146/207 |
| %1st pts | 67% | 71% |
| 2nd pts | 102/191 | 47/78 |
| %2nd pts | 53% | 60% |
Tiafoe fired 20 aces (5 per match). Baez recorded 10 aces (2.5 per match). Tiafoe won 67% points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 53% of the points. On the other side, Baez won 71% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 60% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Tiafoe | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 18 | 16 |
| Converted | 18/33 | 16/38 |
| % Converted | 55% | 42% |
| Conceded | 47 | 14 |
| Saved | 33 | 9 |
| % Saved | 70% | 64% |
| Times Broken | 14 | 5 |
The American broke his opponents 18 times with a 55% conversion rate. The American conceded his serve 14 times and he saved 70% of the break points that he conceded. Sebastian broke his opponents 16 times with a 42% conversion rate. The Argentine conceded his serve 5 times and he saved 64% of the break points that he conceded.
| Tiafoe | ||||||
| R1 Lajovic |
R2 Borges |
1/4 Davidovich Fokina |
1/2 Korda |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 2-6 7-5 6-0 | 7-64 4-6 6-0 | 7-65 5-7 7-5 | 4-6 7-62 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 | |
| Tot Games | 26 | 29 | 37 | 33 | 125 | |
| pts | 83-72 | 94-87 | 132-131 | 120-114 | 429-404 | |
| Total points | 155 | 181 | 263 | 234 | 833 | |
| Winners | 26 | 39 | 57 | 44 | 166 | |
| %Winners | 31% | 41% | 43% | 37% | 39% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 1 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 20 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | |
| 1st in | 41/78 | 50/94 | 89/140 | 68/127 | 248/439 | |
| % 1st in | 53% | 53% | 64% | 54% | 56% | |
| 1st pts | 26/41 | 39/50 | 57/89 | 44/68 | 166/248 | |
| % 1st pts | 63% | 78% | 64% | 65% | 67% | |
| 2nd pts | 21/37 | 24/44 | 28/51 | 29/59 | 102/191 | |
| % 2nd pts | 57% | 55% | 55% | 49% | 53% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 6 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 18 | |
| Converted | 6/9 | 3/9 | 4/8 | 5/7 | 18/33 | |
| Converted % | 67% | 33% | 50% | 71% | 55% | |
| Conceded | 12 | 4 | 17 | 14 | 47 | |
| Saved | 8/12 | 3/4 | 13/17 | 9/14 | 33 | |
| Saved % | 67% | 75% | 76% | 64% | 71% | |
| Times Broken | 4 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 14 | |
| Baez | ||||||
| R1 Sousa |
R2 Cilic |
1/4 Gasquet |
1/2 Ramos-Vinolas |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-1 6-3 | 1-6 6-1 6-4 | 3-6 6-1 6-4 | 6-3 6-77 6-0 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 11 | |
| Tot Games | 16 | 24 | 26 | 28 | 94 | |
| pts | 54-36 | 75-70 | 84-73 | 113-89 | 326-268 | |
| Total points | 90 | 145 | 157 | 202 | 594 | |
| Winners | 26 | 30 | 40 | 50 | 146 | |
| %Winners | 48% | 40% | 48% | 44% | 45% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 10 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | |
| 1st in | 35/47 | 45/67 | 59/78 | 68/93 | 207/285 | |
| % 1st in | 74% | 67% | 76% | 73% | 73% | |
| 1st pts | 26/35 | 30/45 | 40/59 | 50/68 | 146/207 | |
| % 1st pts | 74% | 67% | 68% | 74% | 71% | |
| 2nd pts | 8/12 | 16/22 | 9/19 | 14/25 | 47/78 | |
| % 2nd pts | 67% | 73% | 47% | 56% | 60% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 4 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 16 | |
| Converted | 4/7 | 3/9 | 5/6 | 4/16 | 16/38 | |
| Converted % | 57% | 33% | 83% | 25% | 42% | |
| Conceded | 0 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 14 | |
| Saved | 0/0 | 0/2 | 6/9 | 3/3 | 9 | |
| Saved % | – | 0% | 67% | 100% | 42% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 5 | |
Head 2 Head
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Upcoming matches in the draw
- Frances TiafoeTiafoe – Sebastian BaezBaez (0-0) – H2H and prediction
