Shintaro Mochizuki and Keegan Smith will play each other in the qualifications of the Mexico City Challenger for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Monday at 11:00 am on ESTADIO. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Shintaro Mochizuki who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Shintaro Mochizuki is the pick to win this match.
Shintaro Mochizuki -> 1.8
Keegan Smith -> 1.97
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Prediction and head to head Shintaro Mochizuki vs. Keegan Smith
There is no head to head record between Shintaro Mochizuki and Keegan Smith since this will be the first time that they will fight against each other in the main tour.
Shintaro Mochizuki
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 43-31 | 27-16 | 2-6 | 3-6 | 11-3 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 28-33 | 19-22 | 7-5 | 0-1 | 2-5 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 41-33 | 22-16 | 13-8 | 2-5 | 4-4 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 37-34 | 18-17 | 13-12 | 6-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 35-30 | 11-10 | 18-11 | 5-7 | 1-1 | 0-1 |
Ranked no. 425, Mochizuki reached the qualifications after beating Luis Patino 6-4 6-2.
In the qualifications, Mochizuki had a good straight sets win against Patino (6-4 6-2). During the match, Mochizuki scored 77 points vs Patino’s 65. The Japanese was quite aggressive to blast 19 winners.
Regarding the service games, Mochizuki couldn’t to score even 1 ace in the match and he committed only 6 double faults. Shintaro Mochizuki lost the serve once and he saved 3 break points. Furthermore, Mochizuki put 37% of his first serves in, winning 70% (19/27) of the points behind his 1st serve and 54% (25/46) on the 2nd serve. Shintaro broke Patino 4 times after converting 31% of his break points (4/13).
Mochizuki has a winning record in the last 5 years having won 56% of his matches (74-58). 1-1 on clay in 2022. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this event, Mochizuki has a compiled27-15 win-loss record in the last 5 years on clay.
Shintaro has an aggregate 5-5 win-loss record in 2022, 1-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Mexico City Challenger
Shintaro has never competed in this tournament before.
Keegan Smith
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 47-22 | 30-12 | 0-0 | 17-10 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 39-26 | 36-21 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 35-26 | 31-20 | 0-0 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 30-24 | 26-14 | 3-4 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 16-5 | 8-2 | 0-0 | 8-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 434 (career-high), Smith reached the qualifications after beating Peter Bertran 7-66 7-5.
In the qualifications, Keegan had a good straight sets win against Bertran (7-66 7-5). During the match Smith scored 87 points vs Bertran’s 80. The American was pretty aggressive to blast 40 winners.
Talking about serving, Smith blasted 14 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Keegan Smith lost the serve once and he saved 4 break points. Furthermore, Smith put 59% of his first serves in, winning 85% (40/47) of the points behind his 1st serve and 38% (12/32) on the 2nd serve. Smith broke Bertran twice after converting 22% of his break points (2/9).
Keegan’s best result of the year was reaching the final in M25 Cancun and M25 Bakersfield.
Keegan has a compiled 13-5 win-loss record in 2022, 1-0 on clay (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Mochizuki | Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 1 | 1 |
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 |
| Tot Games | 18 | 25 |
| Pts | 77-65 | 87-80 |
| Total Points | 142 | 167 |
| Winners | 19 | 40 |
| %Winners | 25% | 46% |
Both Mochizuki and Smith played 1 match. Also both players started their run from the qualifications.Both players have not conceded a single set in this event so far. Talking about their workload, Mochizuki and Smith have played the same amount of sets 2. However, Mochizuki played 7 games less than Smith. Mochizuki scored 19 winners (25% of the total points). On the other side, Smith recorded 40 winners (46%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Mochizuki | Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 0 | 14 |
| Avg per match | 0 | 14 |
| 1st in | 27/73 | 47/79 |
| %1st in | 37% | 59% |
| 1st pts | 19/27 | 40/47 |
| %1st pts | 70% | 85% |
| 2nd pts | 25/46 | 12/32 |
| %2nd pts | 54% | 38% |
Mochizuki didn’t manage to fire a single ace to far. Smith managed to score 14 aces . Mochizuki won 70% points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 54% of the points. On the other side, Smith won 85% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 38% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Mochizuki | Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 4 | 2 |
| Converted | 4/13 | 2/9 |
| % Converted | 31% | 22% |
| Conceded | 4 | 5 |
| Saved | 3 | 4 |
| % Saved | 75% | 80% |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 |
Mochizuki broke his opponent 4 times with a 31% conversion rate. The Japanese lost his serve once and he saved 75% of the break points that he conceded. Keegan broke his opponent twice with a 22% conversion rate. The American conceded his serve once and he saved 80% of the break points that he conceded.
| Mochizuki | |||
| Q1 Patino |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | |
| Tot Games | 18 | 18 | |
| pts | 77-65 | 77-65 | |
| Total points | 142 | 142 | |
| Winners | 19 | 19 | |
| %Winners | 25% | 25% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 0 | 0 | |
| Double Faults | 6 | 6 | |
| 1st in | 27/73 | 27/73 | |
| % 1st in | 37% | 37% | |
| 1st pts | 19/27 | 19/27 | |
| % 1st pts | 70% | 70% | |
| 2nd pts | 25/46 | 25/46 | |
| % 2nd pts | 54% | 54% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 4 | 4 | |
| Converted | 4/13 | 4/13 | |
| Converted % | 31% | 31% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 4 | |
| Saved | 3/4 | 3 | |
| Saved % | 75% | 75% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | |
| Smith | |||
| Q1 Bertran |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-66 7-5 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | |
| Tot Games | 25 | 25 | |
| pts | 87-80 | 87-80 | |
| Total points | 167 | 167 | |
| Winners | 40 | 40 | |
| %Winners | 46% | 46% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 14 | 14 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 3 | |
| 1st in | 47/79 | 47/79 | |
| % 1st in | 59% | 59% | |
| 1st pts | 40/47 | 40/47 | |
| % 1st pts | 85% | 85% | |
| 2nd pts | 12/32 | 12/32 | |
| % 2nd pts | 38% | 38% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 2 | 2 | |
| Converted | 2/9 | 2/9 | |
| Converted % | 22% | 22% | |
| Conceded | 5 | 5 | |
| Saved | 4/5 | 4 | |
| Saved % | 80% | 80% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | |
Head 2 Head
LLLWLLWWLW
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