Casper Ruud and Carlos Alcaraz will play each other in the final of the Miami Open for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Sunday at 1:00 pm on Stadium. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Carlos Alcaraz who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Carlos Alcaraz is the pick to win this match.
Carlos Alcaraz -> 1.45
Casper Ruud -> 2.93
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Prediction and head to head Casper Ruud vs. Carlos Alcaraz
This will be the 2nd time that Casper Ruud and Carlos Alcaraz fight against each other. The head to head is 1-0 for Alcaraz (see full H2H stats), but they have never competed against each other on hard.
The last time that they played, Alcaraz won 6-2 6-4 in the quarter in Marbella back in 2021.
Highlights Carlos Alcaraz vs Casper Ruud – Marbella 09-April-2021
Casper Ruud
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 51-25 | 21-9 | 24-7 | 5-8 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 37-23 | 12-12 | 22-8 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 51-22 | 18-8 | 25-7 | 7-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 57-17 | 16-6 | 28-5 | 11-4 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 22-13 | 4-5 | 17-6 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 8 (career-high), Casper reached the final after beating Henri Laaksonen 6-1 6-2, Alexander Bublik 6-3 6-2, Cameron Norrie 6-3 6-4, Alexander Zverev 6-3 1-6 6-3 and Francisco Cerundolo 6-4 6-1.
In the semifinal, Ruud had a good straight sets win against Cerundolo (6-4 6-1). During the match, Ruud scored 68 points vs Cerundolo’s 50. The Norwegian was exceptionally aggressive to blast 31 winners.
Talking about the service games, Ruud managed to score 6 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Casper Ruud lost the serve once and he saved 4 break points. Furthermore, Ruud put 61% of his first serves in, winning 84% (31/37) of the points behind his 1st serve and 33% (8/24) on the 2nd serve. Casper broke Cerundolo 4 times after converting 50% of his break points (4/8).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Norwegian has conceded 1 set in this event to conquer 57% of the points he played.
Ruud has a solid record in the last 8 years having won 65% of his matches (278-151). 8-2 on hard in 2022. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this competition, Ruud has a composed63-43 record in the last 8 years on hard.
His best result of the season was winning the title in in Buenos Aires where he beat Diego Sebastian Schwartzman in the final 5-7 6-2 6-3.
Casper has an aggregate 13-3 win-loss record in 2022, 8-2 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Miami
Carlos Alcaraz
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 54-13 | 22-5 | 17-4 | 7-3 | 8-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 65-12 | 26-6 | 25-3 | 2-3 | 12-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 57-13 | 21-4 | 27-4 | 6-4 | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 48-19 | 15-8 | 22-7 | 10-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 39-7 | 10-0 | 29-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 16 (career-high), Alcaraz reached the final after beating Marton Fucsovics 6-3 6-2, Marin Cilic 6-4 6-4, Stefanos Tsitsipas 7-5 6-3, Miomir Kecmanovic 6-75 6-3 7-65 and Hubert Hurkacz 7-65 7-62.
In the semifinal, Alcaraz had a good straight sets win against Hurkacz (7-65 7-62). During the match Alcaraz scored 88 points vs Hurkacz’s 79. Carlos was extremely aggressive to blast 45 winners.
Talking about serving, Alcaraz bagged 3 aces and he was quite solid in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Carlos Alcaraz was pretty efficient on serve to win 78% (45/58) of his 1st serve and 70% (16/23) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match.
Overall Performance in this tournament
Alcaraz has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 53% of the points he played.
His best result of the current season was winning the title in in Rio de Janeiro where he defeated Diego Sebastian Schwartzman in the final 6-4 6-2.
Alcaraz has an aggregate 17-2 win-loss record in 2022, 11-2 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Miami
Previously, his best result was reaching the 1st round in 2021. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Ruud | Alcaraz |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 5 | 5 |
| Tot Set | 11 | 11 |
| Tot Games | 93 | 119 |
| Pts | 309-232 | 402-350 |
| Total Points | 541 | 752 |
| Winners | 154 | 201 |
| %Winners | 50% | 50% |
Both Ruud and Alcaraz played 5 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Casper Ruud dropped 1 set, while Carlos Alcaraz lost 1 set. Talking about their workload, Ruud and Alcaraz have played the same amount of sets 11. However, Ruud played 26 games less than Alcaraz. Casper scored 154 winners (50% of the total points). On the other side, Alcaraz fired 201 winners (50%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Ruud | Alcaraz |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 27 | 13 |
| Avg per match | 5.4 | 2.6 |
| 1st in | 185/277 | 258/369 |
| %1st in | 67% | 70% |
| 1st pts | 154/185 | 201/258 |
| %1st pts | 83% | 78% |
| 2nd pts | 43/92 | 64/111 |
| %2nd pts | 47% | 58% |
Ruud bagged 27 aces (5.4 per match). Alcaraz blasted 13 aces (2.6 per match). Ruud won 83% points on his first serve. He quite strong on his second serve to win 47% of the points. On the other side, Alcaraz won 78% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 58% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Ruud | Alcaraz |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 16 | 11 |
| Converted | 16/34 | 11/31 |
| % Converted | 47% | 35% |
| Conceded | 12 | 17 |
| Saved | 8 | 15 |
| % Saved | 67% | 88% |
| Times Broken | 4 | 2 |
Casper broke his opponents 16 times with a 47% conversion rate. Ruud surrendered his serve 4 times and he saved 67% of the break points that he conceded. The Spaniard broke his opponents 11 times with a 35% conversion rate. Alcaraz conceded his serve twice and he saved 88% of the break points that he conceded.
| Ruud | |||||||
| R2 Laaksonen |
R3 Bublik |
R4 Norrie |
1/4 Zverev |
1/2 Cerundolo |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-1 6-2 | 6-3 6-2 | 6-3 6-4 | 6-3 1-6 6-3 | 6-4 6-1 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 | |
| Tot Games | 15 | 17 | 19 | 25 | 17 | 93 | |
| pts | 52-25 | 58-38 | 65-56 | 66-63 | 68-50 | 309-232 | |
| Total points | 77 | 96 | 121 | 129 | 118 | 541 | |
| Winners | 25 | 28 | 33 | 37 | 31 | 154 | |
| %Winners | 48% | 48% | 51% | 56% | 46% | 50% | |
| SERVE | |||||||
| Aces | 5 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 27 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | |
| 1st in | 29/39 | 33/46 | 39/68 | 47/63 | 37/61 | 185/277 | |
| % 1st in | 74% | 72% | 57% | 75% | 61% | 67% | |
| 1st pts | 25/29 | 28/33 | 33/39 | 37/47 | 31/37 | 154/185 | |
| % 1st pts | 86% | 85% | 85% | 79% | 84% | 83% | |
| 2nd pts | 7/10 | 8/13 | 10/29 | 10/16 | 8/24 | 43/92 | |
| % 2nd pts | 70% | 62% | 34% | 63% | 33% | 47% | |
| Breaks | |||||||
| Won | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 16 | |
| Converted | 4/6 | 3/7 | 3/8 | 2/5 | 4/8 | 16/34 | |
| Converted % | 67% | 43% | 38% | 40% | 50% | 47% | |
| Conceded | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 12 | |
| Saved | 0/0 | 0/0 | 2/3 | 2/4 | 4/5 | 8 | |
| Saved % | – | – | 67% | 50% | 80% | 39% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | |
| Alcaraz | |||||||
| R2 Fucsovics |
R3 Cilic |
R4 Tsitsipas |
1/4 Kecmanovic |
1/2 Hurkacz |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-2 | 6-4 6-4 | 7-5 6-3 | 6-75 6-3 7-65 | 7-65 7-62 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 | |
| Tot Games | 17 | 20 | 21 | 35 | 26 | 119 | |
| pts | 64-49 | 66-55 | 82-68 | 102-99 | 88-79 | 402-350 | |
| Total points | 113 | 121 | 150 | 201 | 167 | 752 | |
| Winners | 29 | 28 | 37 | 62 | 45 | 201 | |
| %Winners | 45% | 42% | 45% | 61% | 51% | 50% | |
| SERVE | |||||||
| Aces | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 13 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 9 | |
| 1st in | 35/55 | 36/55 | 50/72 | 79/106 | 58/81 | 258/369 | |
| % 1st in | 64% | 65% | 69% | 75% | 72% | 70% | |
| 1st pts | 29/35 | 28/36 | 37/50 | 62/79 | 45/58 | 201/258 | |
| % 1st pts | 83% | 78% | 74% | 78% | 78% | 78% | |
| 2nd pts | 11/20 | 13/19 | 10/22 | 14/27 | 16/23 | 64/111 | |
| % 2nd pts | 55% | 68% | 45% | 52% | 70% | 58% | |
| Breaks | |||||||
| Won | 3 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | |
| Converted | 3/6 | 2/9 | 4/11 | 2/2 | 0/3 | 11/31 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 22% | 36% | 100% | 0% | 35% | |
| Conceded | 3 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 17 | |
| Saved | 3/3 | 1/1 | 7/8 | 1/2 | 3/3 | 15 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 100% | 88% | 50% | 100% | 88% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
Head 2 Head
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