Iga Swiatek and Naomi Osaka will square off in the final of the Miami Open for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Saturday at 1:00 pm on STADIUM. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Iga Swiatek who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Iga Swiatek is the pick to win this match.
Iga Swiatek -> 1.666
Naomi Osaka -> 2.49
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Prediction and head to head Iga Swiatek vs. Naomi Osaka
This will be the 2nd time that Iga Swiatek and Naomi Osaka fight against each other. The head to head is 1-0 for Osaka (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.
The last time that they fought against each other, Osaka won 7-6(4) 6-4 in the 3rd round in Toronto back in 2019.
Highlights Naomi Osaka vs Iga Swiatek – Toronto 08-August-2019
Iga Swiatek
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 45-4 | 22-3 | 21-1 | 2-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 68-11 | 42-8 | 19-2 | 0-0 | 7-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 67-9 | 42-6 | 18-1 | 5-1 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 36-15 | 18-10 | 12-2 | 2-1 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 16-5 | 6-4 | 7-1 | 3-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 2 (career-high), the Pole got to the final after defeating Viktorija Golubic 6-2 6-0, Madison Brengle 6-0 6-3, Cori Gauff 6-3 6-1, Petra Kvitova 6-3 6-3 and Jessica Pegula 6-2 7-5.
In the semifinal, Swiatek had a good straight sets win against Pegula (6-2 7-5). During the match, Swiatek scored 81 points vs Pegula’s 64. Swiatek was exceptionally aggressive to blast 32 winners.
Regarding the service games, Swiatek managed to score 3 aces and she committed only 2 double faults. Iga Swiatek lost the serve 3 times and she saved 4 break points. Furthermore, Swiatek put 67% of her first serves in, winning 70% (32/46) of the points behind her 1st serve and 39% (9/23) on the 2nd serve. Iga broke Pegula 6 times after converting 38% of her break points (6/16).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Swiatek hasn’t lost yet a set in this event to win 60% of the points she played.
Swiatek has a fantastic record in the last 7 years having won 78% of her matches (175-50). 25-3 on hard in 2022. Talking about her performance on the same surface of this event, Swiatek has a compiled74-26 match record in the last 7 years on hard.
Her best result of the current year was winning the title in in Doha where she defeated Anett Kontaveit in the final 6-2 6-0 and in in Indian Wells where she overcame Maria Sakkari in the final 6-4 6-1.
The Pole has a composed 25-3 win-loss record in 2022, 25-3 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Miami
Naomi Osaka
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 15-12 | 7-6 | 5-4 | 1-0 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 14-9 | 13-7 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 18-6 | 16-4 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 16-3 | 16-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 77, Naomi got to the final after defeating Astra Sharma 6-3 6-4, Angelique Kerber 6-2 6-3, Karolina Muchova w/o, Alison Riske 6-3 6-4, Danielle Rose Collins 6-2 6-1 and Belinda Bencic 4-6 6-3 6-4.
In the semifinal against Bencic, Osaka recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (4-6 6-3 6-4). During the match Osaka scored 97 points vs Bencic’s 84. Osaka was exceptionally aggressive to blast 46 winners.
Talking about serving, Osaka made 18 aces and she committed only 3 double faults. Naomi Osaka lost the serve 4 times and she saved 10 break points. Furthermore, Osaka put 60% of her first serves in, winning 79% (46/58) of the points behind her 1st serve and 38% (15/39) on the 2nd serve. Naomi broke Bencic 5 times after converting 42% of her break points (5/12).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Osaka has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 58% of the points she played.
Naomi’s best result of the season was getting to the semifinal in Melbourne and Miami.
The Japanese has an aggregate 11-2 win-loss record in 2022, 11-2 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Miami
Previously, her best result was reaching the quarter in 2021. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Swiatek | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 5 | 5 |
| Tot Set | 10 | 11 |
| Tot Games | 83 | 99 |
| Pts | 329-223 | 362-267 |
| Total Points | 552 | 629 |
| Winners | 127 | 149 |
| %Winners | 39% | 41% |
Both Swiatek and Osaka played 5 matches. At the moment, Naomi Osaka surrendered 1 set while Iga Swiatek hasn’t lost a set so far. Swiatek has played 1 set(s) less than Osaka (10 vs 11). Therefore, Swiatek played 16 games less than Osaka. Swiatek scored 127 winners (39% of the total points). On the other side, Osaka managed to score 149 winners (41%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Swiatek | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 8 | 46 |
| Avg per match | 1.6 | 9.2 |
| 1st in | 177/273 | 182/308 |
| %1st in | 65% | 59% |
| 1st pts | 127/177 | 149/182 |
| %1st pts | 72% | 82% |
| 2nd pts | 53/96 | 65/126 |
| %2nd pts | 55% | 52% |
Swiatek fired 8 aces (1.6 per match). Osaka struck 46 aces (9.2 per match). Swiatek won 72% points behind her first serve. She very solid her second serve to win 55% of the points. On the other side, Osaka won 82% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 52% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Swiatek | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 24 | 18 |
| Converted | 24/52 | 18/49 |
| % Converted | 46% | 37% |
| Conceded | 20 | 24 |
| Saved | 15 | 19 |
| % Saved | 75% | 79% |
| Times Broken | 5 | 5 |
Swiatek broke her opponents 24 times with a 46% conversion rate. The Pole conceded her serve 5 times and she saved 75% of the break points that she conceded. Osaka broke her opponents 18 times with a 37% conversion rate. Naomi conceded her serve 5 times and she saved 79% of the break points that she conceded.
| Swiatek | |||||||
| R2 Golubic |
R3 Brengle |
R4 Gauff |
1/4 Kvitova |
1/2 Pegula |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 6-0 | 6-0 6-3 | 6-3 6-1 | 6-3 6-3 | 6-2 7-5 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | |
| Tot Games | 14 | 15 | 16 | 18 | 20 | 83 | |
| pts | 63-36 | 55-34 | 67-43 | 63-46 | 81-64 | 329-223 | |
| Total points | 99 | 89 | 110 | 109 | 145 | 552 | |
| Winners | 25 | 16 | 26 | 28 | 32 | 127 | |
| %Winners | 40% | 29% | 39% | 44% | 40% | 39% | |
| SERVE | |||||||
| Aces | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9 | |
| 1st in | 37/55 | 24/47 | 33/50 | 37/52 | 46/69 | 177/273 | |
| % 1st in | 67% | 51% | 66% | 71% | 67% | 65% | |
| 1st pts | 25/37 | 16/24 | 26/33 | 28/37 | 32/46 | 127/177 | |
| % 1st pts | 68% | 67% | 79% | 76% | 70% | 72% | |
| 2nd pts | 9/18 | 15/23 | 10/17 | 10/15 | 9/23 | 53/96 | |
| % 2nd pts | 50% | 65% | 59% | 67% | 39% | 55% | |
| Breaks | |||||||
| Won | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 24 | |
| Converted | 6/9 | 5/10 | 4/10 | 3/7 | 6/16 | 24/52 | |
| Converted % | 67% | 50% | 40% | 43% | 38% | 46% | |
| Conceded | 9 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 20 | |
| Saved | 8/9 | 1/2 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 4/7 | 15 | |
| Saved % | 89% | 50% | 100% | – | 57% | 59% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | |
| Osaka | ||||||||
| R1 Sharma |
R2 Kerber |
R3 Muchova |
R4 Riske |
1/4 Collins |
1/2 Bencic |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-4 | 6-2 6-3 | w/o | 6-3 6-4 | 6-2 6-1 | 4-6 6-3 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | – | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 | |
| Tot Games | 19 | 17 | – | 19 | 15 | 29 | 99 | |
| pts | 72-49 | 61-39 | – | 78-66 | 54-29 | 97-84 | 362-267 | |
| Total points | 121 | 100 | – | 144 | 83 | 181 | 629 | |
| Winners | 27 | 24 | – | 31 | 21 | 46 | 149 | |
| %Winners | 38% | 39% | – | 40% | 39% | 47% | 41% | |
| SERVE | ||||||||
| Aces | 2 | 6 | – | 7 | 13 | 18 | 46 | |
| Double Faults | 0 | 0 | – | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | |
| 1st in | 29/49 | 27/51 | – | 44/73 | 24/38 | 58/97 | 182/308 | |
| % 1st in | 59% | 53% | – | 60% | 63% | 60% | 59% | |
| 1st pts | 27/29 | 24/27 | – | 31/44 | 21/24 | 46/58 | 149/182 | |
| % 1st pts | 93% | 89% | – | 70% | 88% | 79% | 82% | |
| 2nd pts | 14/20 | 14/24 | – | 15/29 | 7/14 | 15/39 | 65/126 | |
| % 2nd pts | 70% | 58% | – | 52% | 50% | 38% | 52% | |
| Breaks | ||||||||
| Won | 2 | 3 | – | 3 | 5 | 5 | 18 | |
| Converted | 2/11 | 3/7 | – | 3/12 | 5/7 | 5/12 | 18/49 | |
| Converted % | 18% | 43% | – | 25% | 71% | 42% | 37% | |
| Conceded | 0 | 2 | – | 8 | 0 | 14 | 24 | |
| Saved | 0/0 | 2/2 | – | 7/8 | 0/0 | 10/14 | 19 | |
| Saved % | – | 100% | – | 88% | – | 71% | 52% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 0 | – | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | |
Head 2 Head
WWWWWWWWWW
LLWWLWLWWW Tennis Scores in Miami
- John IsnerIsner – Matthew EbdenEbden (6-3 7-64) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Naomi OsakaOsaka – Iga SwiatekSwiatek (1-0) – H2H and prediction
