Jannik Sinner and Pablo Carreno-Busta will face off in the 3rd round of the Miami Open for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Sunday at 4:30 pm on BUTCH BUCHHOLZ. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Jannik Sinner who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Jannik Sinner is the pick to win this match.
Jannik Sinner -> 1.5
Pablo Carreno-Busta -> 2.66
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Prediction and head to head Jannik Sinner vs. Pablo Carreno-Busta
This will be the 2nd time that Jannik Sinner and Pablo Carreno-Busta fight against each other. The head to head is 1-0 for Carreno-Busta (see full H2H stats), but they have never competed against each other on hard.
The last time that they competed against each other, Carreno-Busta won 7-5 3-6 7-6(6) in the quarter in Rotterdam back in 2020.
Highlights Pablo Carreno-Busta vs Jannik Sinner – Rotterdam 14-February-2020
Jannik Sinner
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 58-6 | 24-3 | 11-2 | 15-0 | 8-1 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 73-8 | 40-5 | 11-2 | 13-0 | 9-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 64-15 | 28-7 | 8-3 | 20-2 | 8-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 47-16 | 21-6 | 15-4 | 7-4 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 49-22 | 22-8 | 10-6 | 17-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 11, the Italian got to the 3rd round after defeating Emil Ruusuvuori 6-4 3-6 7-68.
In the 2nd round, Sinner defeated Ruusuvuori (6-4 3-6 7-68).During the match, Sinner scored less points (3) than Ruusuvuori. In fact, the world no. 11 won 98 points vs Ruusuvuori’s. That means that Sinner was more focused during the important points. Sinner was extremely aggressive to blast 49 winners.
Talking about the service games, Sinner made 3 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Jannik Sinner lost the serve twice and he saved 6 break points. Furthermore, Sinner put 62% of his first serves in, winning 78% (49/63) of the points behind his 1st serve and 39% (15/38) on the 2nd serve. The Italian broke Ruusuvuori twice after converting 50% of his break points (2/4).
Sinner has a solid win-loss record in the last 5 years having won 68% of his matches (176-84). 12-2 on hard in 2022. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this event, Sinner has a composed61-30 match record in the last 5 years on hard.
Sinner has an aggregate 14-2 win-loss record in 2022, 12-2 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Miami
Pablo Carreno-Busta
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 41-28 | 25-10 | 14-14 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 10-12 | 7-6 | 2-4 | 1-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 2-5 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 37-25 | 19-8 | 11-9 | 5-5 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 38-18 | 14-8 | 17-4 | 5-4 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 19, Pablo got to the 3rd round after beating David Goffin 6-3 6-2.
In the 2nd round, Pablo had a good straight sets win against Goffin (6-3 6-2). During the match Carreno-Busta scored 59 points vs Goffin’s 37. The Spaniard was pretty aggressive to blast 24 winners.
About the serving games, Carreno-Busta scored just 1 ace during the entire match and he committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Pablo Carreno-Busta was exceptionally efficient on serve to win 75% (24/32) of his 1st serve and 81% (13/16) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Carreno-Busta broke Goffin 3 times after converting 60% of his break points (3/5).
The Spaniard has a compiled 9-5 win-loss record in 2022, 9-4 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Miami
Previously, his best result was reaching the semifinal in 2018. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Sinner | Carreno-Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 1 | 1 |
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 |
| Tot Games | 32 | 17 |
| Pts | 98-101 | 59-37 |
| Total Points | 199 | 96 |
| Winners | 49 | 24 |
| %Winners | 50% | 41% |
Both Sinner and Carreno-Busta played 1 match. At the moment, Jannik Sinner dropped 1 set while Pablo Carreno-Busta hasn’t lost a set so far. Sinner has played 1 set more than Carreno-Busta (3 vs 2). Therefore, Sinner played 15 games more than Carreno-Busta. Sinner scored 49 winners (50% of the total points). On the other side, The Spaniard fired 24 winners (41%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Sinner | Carreno-Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 3 | 1 |
| Avg per match | 3 | 1 |
| 1st in | 63/101 | 32/48 |
| %1st in | 62% | 67% |
| 1st pts | 49/63 | 24/32 |
| %1st pts | 78% | 75% |
| 2nd pts | 15/38 | 13/16 |
| %2nd pts | 39% | 81% |
Sinner scored 3 aces . Carreno-Busta scored 1 ace . Sinner won 78% points behind his first serve. He extremely effective on his second serve to win 39% of the points. On the other side, Carreno-Busta won 75% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 81% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Sinner | Carreno-Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 2 | 3 |
| Converted | 2/4 | 3/5 |
| % Converted | 50% | 60% |
| Conceded | 8 | 0 |
| Saved | 6 | 0 |
| % Saved | 75% | 0% |
| Times Broken | 2 | 0 |
Jannik broke his opponent twice with a 50% conversion rate. The Italian lost his serve twice and he saved 75% of the break points that he conceded. Pablo broke his opponent 3 times with a 60% conversion rate. Carreno-Busta was rock solid on his serve as he has never conceded a single service game after saving 0 break points.
| Sinner | |||
| R2 Ruusuvuori |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 3-6 7-68 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | |
| Tot Games | 32 | 32 | |
| pts | 98-101 | 98-101 | |
| Total points | 199 | 199 | |
| Winners | 49 | 49 | |
| %Winners | 50% | 50% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 3 | 3 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 2 | |
| 1st in | 63/101 | 63/101 | |
| % 1st in | 62% | 62% | |
| 1st pts | 49/63 | 49/63 | |
| % 1st pts | 78% | 78% | |
| 2nd pts | 15/38 | 15/38 | |
| % 2nd pts | 39% | 39% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 2 | 2 | |
| Converted | 2/4 | 2/4 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 50% | |
| Conceded | 8 | 8 | |
| Saved | 6/8 | 6 | |
| Saved % | 75% | 75% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 2 | |
| Carreno-Busta | |||
| R2 Goffin |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | |
| Tot Games | 17 | 17 | |
| pts | 59-37 | 59-37 | |
| Total points | 96 | 96 | |
| Winners | 24 | 24 | |
| %Winners | 41% | 41% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 1 | 1 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 1 | |
| 1st in | 32/48 | 32/48 | |
| % 1st in | 67% | 67% | |
| 1st pts | 24/32 | 24/32 | |
| % 1st pts | 75% | 75% | |
| 2nd pts | 13/16 | 13/16 | |
| % 2nd pts | 81% | 81% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 3 | 3 | |
| Converted | 3/5 | 3/5 | |
| Converted % | 60% | 60% | |
| Conceded | 0 | 0 | |
| Saved | 0/0 | 0 | |
| Saved % | – | 0% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 0 | |
Head 2 Head
WWWWWWWWWW
LWLLWWWWLW Tennis Scores in Miami
- Yoshihito NishiokaNishioka – Daniel EvansEvans (3-6 6-4 6-3) – See score progression
- Carlos AlcarazAlcaraz – Marton FucsovicsFucsovics (6-3 6-2) – See score progression
- Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas – Jeff WolfWolf (6-4 6-75 6-1) – See score progression
- Roberto Bautista AgutBautista Agut – Kamil MajchrzakMajchrzak (6-3 6-3) – See score progression
- Sebastian KordaKorda – Albert Ramos-VinolasRamos-Vinolas (4-6 7-66 6-3) – See score progression
- Hubert HurkaczHurkacz – Arthur RinderknechRinderknech (7-65 6-2) – See score progression
- Alex De MinaurDe Minaur – Jordan ThompsonThompson (6-2 6-3) – See score progression
- Miomir KecmanovicKecmanovic – Felix Auger AliassimeAuger Aliassime (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
- Pedro Martinez PorteroMartinez Portero – Cristian GarinGarin (7-62 6-2) – See score progression
- Marin CilicCilic – Alexei PopyrinPopyrin (6-0 6-3) – See score progression
- Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Andy MurrayMurray (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
- Jenson BrooksbyBrooksby – Nikoloz BasilashviliBasilashvili (6-3 6-1) – See score progression
- Tommy PaulPaul – Karen KhachanovKhachanov (6-4 3-6 7-63) – See score progression
- Taylor Harry FritzHarry Fritz – Mikhail KukushkinKukushkin (6-3 5-7 6-3) – See score progression
- Lloyd HarrisHarris – Denis ShapovalovShapovalov (6-3 6-4) – See score progression
- Aslan KaratsevKaratsev – Ugo HumbertHumbert (7-5 6-2) – See score progression
- Pablo Carreno-BustaCarreno-Busta – David GoffinGoffin (6-3 6-2) – See score progression
- Juan Manuel CerundoloManuel Cerundolo – Kevin AndersonAnderson (7-67 3-6 6-3) – See score progression
- Hugo GastonGaston – John IsnerIsner (7-65 6-4) – See score progression
- Alexander ZverevZverev – Borna CoricCoric (6-4 3-6 6-3) – See score progression
- Nick KyrgiosKyrgios – Andrey RublevRublev (6-3 6-0) – See score progression
- Frances TiafoeTiafoe – Brandon NakashimaNakashima (3-6 7-65 6-4) – See score progression
- Francisco CerundoloCerundolo – Reilly OpelkaOpelka (6-1 3-1 ret.) – See score progression
- Denis KudlaKudla – Lorenzo SonegoSonego (3-6 7-65 6-4) – See score progression
- Mackenzie McdonaldMcdonald – Grigor DimitrovDimitrov (6-1 6-4) – See score progression
- Thanasi KokkinakisKokkinakis – Diego Sebastian SchwartzmanSebastian Schwartzman (4-6 7-63 6-4) – See score progression
- Casper RuudRuud – Henri LaaksonenLaaksonen (6-1 6-2) – See score progression
- Fabio FogniniFognini – Taro DanielDaniel (6-71 6-2 7-65) – See score progression
- Gael MonfilsMonfils – Oscar OtteOtte (7-69 6-1) – See score progression
- Cameron NorrieNorrie – Jack DraperDraper (7-65 6-4) – See score progression
- Jannik SinnerSinner – Emil RuusuvuoriRuusuvuori (6-4 3-6 7-68) – See score progression
- Alexander BublikBublik – Daniel Elahi GalanElahi Galan (6-77 6-3 6-4) – See score progression
- Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Andy MurrayMurray (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
- Pedro Martinez PorteroMartinez Portero – Cristian GarinGarin (7-6(2) 6-2) – See score progression
- Jenson BrooksbyBrooksby – Nikoloz BasilashviliBasilashvili (6-3 6-1) – See score progression
- Lloyd HarrisHarris – Denis ShapovalovShapovalov (6-3 6-4) – See score progression
- Yoshihito NishiokaNishioka – Daniel EvansEvans (3-6 6-4 6-3) – See score progression
- Aslan KaratsevKaratsev – Ugo HumbertHumbert (7-5 6-2) – See score progression
- Hubert HurkaczHurkacz – Arthur RinderknechRinderknech (7-6(5) 6-2) – See score progression
- Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas – Jeff WolfWolf (6-4 6-7(5) 6-1) – See score progression
- Marin CilicCilic – Alexei PopyrinPopyrin (6-0 6-3) – See score progression
- Carlos AlcarazAlcaraz – Marton FucsovicsFucsovics (6-3 6-2) – See score progression
- Taylor Harry FritzHarry Fritz – Mikhail KukushkinKukushkin (6-3 5-7 6-3) – See score progression
- Sebastian KordaKorda – Albert Ramos-VinolasRamos-Vinolas (4-6 7-6(6) 6-3) – See score progression
- Miomir KecmanovicKecmanovic – Felix Auger AliassimeAuger Aliassime (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Marin CilicCilic – Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Pablo Carreno-BustaCarreno-Busta – Jannik SinnerSinner (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Mackenzie McdonaldMcdonald – Alexander ZverevZverev (0-2) – H2H and prediction
- Aslan KaratsevKaratsev – Hubert HurkaczHurkacz (1-2) – H2H and prediction
- Thanasi KokkinakisKokkinakis – Denis KudlaKudla (0-2) – H2H and prediction
- Nick KyrgiosKyrgios – Fabio FogniniFognini (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Pedro Martinez PorteroMartinez Portero (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Taylor Harry FritzHarry Fritz – Tommy PaulPaul (2-3) – H2H and prediction
- Frances TiafoeTiafoe – Juan Manuel CerundoloManuel Cerundolo (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas – Alex De MinaurDe Minaur (9-1) – H2H and prediction
- Casper RuudRuud – Alexander BublikBublik (3-1) – H2H and prediction
- Lloyd HarrisHarris – Yoshihito NishiokaNishioka (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Jenson BrooksbyBrooksby – Roberto Bautista AgutBautista Agut (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Sebastian KordaKorda – Miomir KecmanovicKecmanovic (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Hugo GastonGaston – Cameron NorrieNorrie (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Francisco CerundoloCerundolo – Gael MonfilsMonfils (0-0) – H2H and prediction
