Karolina Muchova and Naomi Osaka will square off in the 3rd round of the Miami Open for the 3rd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Saturday at 5:00 pm on STADIUM. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Naomi Osaka who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Naomi Osaka is the pick to win this match.
Naomi Osaka -> 1.33
Karolina Muchova -> 3.44

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Prediction and head to head Karolina Muchova vs. Naomi Osaka

This will be the 3rd time that Karolina Muchova and Naomi Osaka fight against each other. The head to head is 1-1 (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.

The last time that they squared off, Muchova won 6-4 3-6 6-1 in the 2nd round in Madrid back in 2021.

Highlights Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka – Madrid 02-May-2021

Karolina Muchova

Karolina Muchova

0 - 0win/loss

Rank
19
High
8
LWWLWLWLWW
See allSTATS
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 26-17 23-13 0-1 2-1 1-2 0-0
2024 21-7 15-4 4-2 0-0 2-1 0-0
2023 38-13 28-9 10-3 0-0 0-1 0-0
2022 11-12 3-2 3-3 5-5 0-2 0-0
2021 19-9 10-4 5-3 0-0 4-2 0-0
See all years

Ranked no. 74, Muchova got to the 3rd round after defeating Tereza Martincova 7-63 7-63 and Leylah Annie Fernandez 6-4 7-63.

In the 2nd round, The Czech had a good straight sets win against Annie Fernandez (6-4 7-63). During the match, Muchova scored 85 points vs Annie Fernandez’s 81. Muchova was exceptionally aggressive to blast 42 winners.

Regarding the service games, Muchova struck 3 aces and she committed only 4 double faults. Karolina Muchova lost the serve 3 times and she saved 7 break points. Furthermore, Muchova put 69% of her first serves in, winning 71% (42/59) of the points behind her 1st serve and 31% (8/26) on the 2nd serve. The Czech broke Annie Fernandez 4 times after converting 40% of her break points (4/10).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Karolina hasn’t dropped yet a set in this competition to conquer 51% of the points she played.

Muchova has a solid match record in the last 7 years having won 68% of her matches (158-76). 2-0 on hard in 2022. In connection with her performance on the same surface of this competition, Muchova has an overall68-30 match record in the last 7 years on hard.

Muchova has an overall 2-0 win-loss record in 2022, 2-0 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Miami

Miami
Muchova's Record

Naomi Osaka

Naomi Osaka

0 - 0win/loss

Rank
16
High
1
WWLWLLWWWW
See allSTATS
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 35-15 24-9 8-3 0-0 3-3 0-0
2024 22-18 13-10 5-5 1-0 3-3 0-0
2023 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
2022 14-9 13-7 1-2 0-0 0-0 0-0
2021 18-6 16-4 2-2 0-0 0-0 0-0
See all years

Ranked no. 77, the Japanese got to the 3rd round after defeating Astra Sharma 6-3 6-4 and Angelique Kerber 6-2 6-3.

In the 2nd round, Naomi had a good straight sets win against Kerber (6-2 6-3). During the match Osaka scored 61 points vs Kerber’s 39. The Japanese was exceptionally aggressive to blast 24 winners.

About the serving games, Osaka managed to score 6 aces and she was pretty solid in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Naomi Osaka was exceptionally efficient on serve to win 89% (24/27) of her 1st serve and 58% (14/24) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. The Japanese broke Kerber 3 times after converting 43% of her break points (3/7).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Japanese hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 60% of the points she played.

Naomi’s best result of the season was reaching the semifinal in Melbourne.

Naomi has a composed 8-2 win-loss record in 2022, 8-2 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Miami

Previously, her best result was reaching the quarter in 2021. See her history.

Miami
Osaka's Record

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

K.Muchova
N.Osaka
!
4h:39
4h:39
Time on court​
2h:20
2h:20
!
2h:13
2h:13
Last match​
1h:00
1h:00
2
2
Match played
2
2
49
49
Games Played​
36
36
4
4
Set played​​
4
4
183
183
Total points​
133
133
91.5
91.5
Avg point​
66.5
66.5
89
89
Winners
51
51
44.5
44.5
Avg Winners​
25.5
25.5
49%
49%
Ratio winners
38%
38%
-- Serve --
4
4
Aces
8
8
2
2
Avg Aces
4
4
10
10
Double Faults
0
0
5
5
Avg Double Faults
0
0
89/124
89/124
1st won total​
51/56
51/56
!
72%
72%
1st won %
!
91%
91%
25/69
25/69
2nd won total​
28/44
28/44
!
36%
36%
2nd won %
!
64%
64%
-- Break Points --
6/14
6/14
BP won
5/18
5/18
3/7
3/7
Avg BP won
2.5/9
2.5/9
43%
43%
Won
!
28%
28%
20
20
Conceded
2
2
10
10
Avg Conceded
1
1
5
5
Broken
0
0
2.5
2.5
Avg Broken
!
0
0
15
15
Saved
2
2
See Allstats

Matches, sets, games and points

Points Muchova Osaka
Match played 2 2
Tot Set 4 4
Tot Games 49 36
Pts 183-173 133-88
Total Points 356 221
Winners 89 51
%Winners 49% 38%

Both Muchova and Osaka played 2 matches. Both players have not surrendered a single set in this event so far. Talking about their workload, Muchova and Osaka have played the same amount of sets 4. However, Muchova played 13 games more than Osaka. Muchova scored 89 winners (49% of the total points). On the other side, Naomi bagged 51 winners (38%).

Serve Performance

Serve Muchova Osaka
Aces 4 8
Avg per match 2 4
1st in 124/193 56/100
%1st in 64% 56%
1st pts 89/124 51/56
%1st pts 72% 91%
2nd pts 25/69 28/44
%2nd pts 36% 64%

Muchova scored 4 aces (2 per match). Osaka made 8 aces (4 per match). Muchova won 72% points on her first serve. She was rock solid on her second serve to win 36% of the points. On the other side, Osaka won 91% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 64% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks Muchova Osaka
Won 6 5
Converted 6/14 5/18
% Converted 43% 28%
Conceded 20 2
Saved 15 2
% Saved 75% 100%
Times Broken 5 0

Karolina broke her opponents 6 times with a 43% conversion rate. Karolina lost her serve 5 times and she saved 75% of the break points that she conceded. Naomi broke her opponents 5 times with a 28% conversion rate. The Japanese was rock solid on her serve as she has never conceded a single service game after saving 2 break points.

Muchova
R1
Martincova		 R2
Annie		 Total
Score 7-63 7-63 6-4 7-63
Tot Set 2 2 4
Tot Games 26 23 49
pts 98-92 85-81 183-173
Total points 190 166 356
Winners 47 42 89
%Winners 48% 49% 49%
SERVE
Aces 1 3 4
Double Faults 6 4 10
1st in 65/108 59/85 124/193
% 1st in 60% 69% 64%
1st pts 47/65 42/59 89/124
% 1st pts 72% 71% 72%
2nd pts 17/43 8/26 25/69
% 2nd pts 40% 31% 36%
Breaks
Won 2 4 6
Converted 2/4 4/10 6/14
Converted % 50% 40% 43%
Conceded 10 10 20
Saved 8/10 7/10 15
Saved % 80% 70% 75%
Times Broken 2 3 5
Osaka
R1
Sharma		 R2
Kerber		 Total
Score 6-3 6-4 6-2 6-3
Tot Set 2 2 4
Tot Games 19 17 36
pts 72-49 61-39 133-88
Total points 121 100 221
Winners 27 24 51
%Winners 38% 39% 38%
SERVE
Aces 2 6 8
Double Faults 0 0 0
1st in 29/49 27/51 56/100
% 1st in 59% 53% 56%
1st pts 27/29 24/27 51/56
% 1st pts 93% 89% 91%
2nd pts 14/20 14/24 28/44
% 2nd pts 70% 58% 64%
Breaks
Won 2 3 5
Converted 2/11 3/7 5/18
Converted % 18% 43% 28%
Conceded 0 2 2
Saved 0/0 2/2 2
Saved % – 100% 50%
Times Broken 0 0 0

Tennis Scores in Miami

Upcoming matches in the draw

Muchova
More Stats
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Osaka

Click for FULL STATS