Iga Swiatek and Maria Sakkari will face off in the final of the BNP Paribas Open for the 5th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Sunday at 3:00 pm on Stadium 1. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Iga Swiatek who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Iga Swiatek is the pick to win this match.
Iga Swiatek -> 1.53
Maria Sakkari -> 2.65
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Prediction and head to head Iga Swiatek vs. Maria Sakkari
This will be the 5th time that Iga Swiatek and Maria Sakkari clash against each other. The head to head is 3-1 for Sakkari (see full H2H stats),but they are 1-1 on hard.
The last time that they played, Swiatek won 6-4 6-3 in the semifinal in Doha back in February 2022.
Iga Swiatek
Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 | 9-2 | 9-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
2024 | 64-9 | 29-5 | 26-2 | 7-1 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
2023 | 68-11 | 42-8 | 19-2 | 0-0 | 7-1 | 0-0 |
2022 | 67-9 | 42-6 | 18-1 | 5-1 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
2021 | 36-15 | 18-10 | 12-2 | 2-1 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 4 (career-high), the Pole got to the final after defeating Anhelina Kalinina 5-7 6-0 6-1, Clara Tauson 6-73 6-2 6-1, Angelique Kerber 4-6 6-2 6-3, Madison Keys 6-1 6-0 and Simona Halep 7-66 6-4.
In the semifinal, Iga had a good straight sets win against Halep (7-66 6-4). During the match, Swiatek scored 76 points vs Halep’s 68. Swiatek was quite aggressive to blast 23 winners.
Talking about the service games, Swiatek recorded 2 aces and she committed only 3 double faults. Iga Swiatek lost the serve 4 times and she saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Swiatek put 58% of her first serves in, winning 53% (23/43) of the points behind her 1st serve and 65% (20/31) on the 2nd serve. Iga broke Halep 5 times after converting 50% of her break points (5/10).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Iga has conceded 3 set in this tournament to conquer 57% of the points she played.
Swiatek has a fantastic win-loss record in the last 7 years having won 77% of her matches (169-50). 19-3 on hard in 2022. Talking about her performance on the same surface of this event, Swiatek has an aggregate68-26 match record in the last 7 years on hard.
Her best result of the current year was winning the title in in Doha where she overcame Anett Kontaveit in the final 6-2 6-0.
Swiatek has an aggregate 19-3 win-loss record in 2022, 19-3 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Indian Wells
Maria Sakkari
Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 | 2-5 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
2024 | 25-17 | 12-8 | 11-6 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
2023 | 38-25 | 26-17 | 5-4 | 3-1 | 4-3 | 0-0 |
2022 | 40-23 | 21-12 | 8-5 | 4-2 | 7-4 | 0-0 |
2021 | 38-20 | 23-13 | 9-4 | 5-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 6 (career-high), the Greek reached the final after defeating Katerina Siniakova 6-3 7-5, Petra Kvitova 6-3 6-0, Daria Saville 4-1 ret., Elena Rybakina 7-5 6-4 and Paula Badosa Gibert 6-2 4-6 6-1.
In the semifinal, Sakkari defeated Badosa (6-2 4-6 6-1). During the match Sakkari scored 84 points vs Badosa’s 65. Sakkari was exceptionally aggressive to blast 26 winners.
Talking about serving, Sakkari recorded 3 aces and she committed only 3 double faults. Maria Sakkari lost the serve 4 times and she saved 5 break points. Furthermore, Sakkari put 60% of her first serves in, winning 63% (26/41) of the points behind her 1st serve and 56% (15/27) on the 2nd serve. Maria broke Badosa 7 times after converting 64% of her break points (7/11).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Greek has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 57% of the points she played.
Sakkari’s best result of the year was getting to the final in St. Petersburg.
Maria has a compiled 16-4 win-loss record in 2022, 12-3 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Indian Wells
Previously, her best result was reaching the 4th round in 2018. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
Points | Swiatek | Sakkari |
---|---|---|
Match played | 5 | 5 |
Tot Set | 13 | 11 |
Tot Games | 116 | 88 |
Pts | 423-316 | 319-240 |
Total Points | 739 | 559 |
Winners | 152 | 121 |
%Winners | 36% | 38% |
Both Swiatek and Sakkari played 5 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Iga Swiatek lost 3 sets, while Maria Sakkari surrendered 1 set. Swiatek has played 2 sets more than Sakkari (13 vs 11). Therefore, Swiatek played 28 games more than Sakkari. The Pole scored 152 winners (36% of the total points). On the other side, The Greek blasted 121 winners (38%).
Serve Performance
Serve | Swiatek | Sakkari |
---|---|---|
Aces | 16 | 21 |
Avg per match | 3.2 | 4.2 |
1st in | 232/372 | 159/280 |
%1st in | 62% | 57% |
1st pts | 152/232 | 121/159 |
%1st pts | 66% | 76% |
2nd pts | 73/140 | 66/121 |
%2nd pts | 52% | 55% |
Swiatek made 16 aces (3.2 per match). Sakkari scored 21 aces (4.2 per match). Swiatek won 66% points behind her first serve. She pretty solid on her second serve to win 52% of the points. On the other side, Sakkari won 76% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 55% of the points.
How they played the important points
Breaks | Swiatek | Sakkari |
---|---|---|
Won | 33 | 19 |
Converted | 33/58 | 19/35 |
% Converted | 57% | 54% |
Conceded | 39 | 21 |
Saved | 23 | 14 |
% Saved | 59% | 67% |
Times Broken | 16 | 7 |
Iga broke her opponents 33 times with a 57% conversion rate. Swiatek lost her serve 16 times and she saved 59% of the break points that she conceded. Maria broke her opponents 19 times with a 54% conversion rate. Maria conceded her serve 7 times and she saved 67% of the break points that she conceded.
Swiatek | |||||||
R2 Kalinina |
R3 Tauson |
R4 Kerber |
1/4 Keys |
1/2 Halep |
Total | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Score | 5-7 6-0 6-1 | 6-73 6-2 6-1 | 4-6 6-2 6-3 | 6-1 6-0 | 7-66 6-4 | ||
Tot Set | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 13 | |
Tot Games | 25 | 28 | 27 | 13 | 23 | 116 | |
pts | 93-66 | 101-81 | 97-76 | 56-25 | 76-68 | 423-316 | |
Total points | 159 | 182 | 173 | 81 | 144 | 739 | |
Winners | 34 | 37 | 37 | 21 | 23 | 152 | |
%Winners | 37% | 37% | 38% | 38% | 30% | 36% | |
SERVE | |||||||
Aces | 5 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 16 | |
Double Faults | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 14 | |
1st in | 50/86 | 53/75 | 61/92 | 25/45 | 43/74 | 232/372 | |
% 1st in | 58% | 71% | 66% | 56% | 58% | 62% | |
1st pts | 34/50 | 37/53 | 37/61 | 21/25 | 23/43 | 152/232 | |
% 1st pts | 68% | 70% | 61% | 84% | 53% | 66% | |
2nd pts | 14/36 | 13/22 | 15/31 | 11/20 | 20/31 | 73/140 | |
% 2nd pts | 39% | 59% | 48% | 55% | 65% | 52% | |
Breaks | |||||||
Won | 9 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 33 | |
Converted | 9/14 | 6/15 | 8/12 | 5/7 | 5/10 | 33/58 | |
Converted % | 64% | 40% | 67% | 71% | 50% | 57% | |
Conceded | 16 | 1 | 15 | 1 | 6 | 39 | |
Saved | 11/16 | 0/1 | 9/15 | 1/1 | 2/6 | 23 | |
Saved % | 69% | 0% | 60% | 100% | 33% | 52% | |
Times Broken | 5 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 16 |
Sakkari | |||||||
R2 Siniakova |
R3 Kvitova |
R4 Gavrilova |
1/4 Rybakina |
1/2 Badosa |
Total | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Score | 6-3 7-5 | 6-3 6-0 | 4-1 ret. | 7-5 6-4 | 6-2 4-6 6-1 | ||
Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 | |
Tot Games | 21 | 15 | 5 | 22 | 25 | 88 | |
pts | 74-56 | 59-35 | 28-20 | 74-64 | 84-65 | 319-240 | |
Total points | 130 | 94 | 48 | 138 | 149 | 559 | |
Winners | 29 | 24 | 13 | 29 | 26 | 121 | |
%Winners | 39% | 41% | 46% | 39% | 31% | 38% | |
SERVE | |||||||
Aces | 6 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 21 | |
Double Faults | 6 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 13 | |
1st in | 38/68 | 25/45 | 17/29 | 38/70 | 41/68 | 159/280 | |
% 1st in | 56% | 56% | 59% | 54% | 60% | 57% | |
1st pts | 29/38 | 24/25 | 13/17 | 29/38 | 26/41 | 121/159 | |
% 1st pts | 76% | 96% | 76% | 76% | 63% | 76% | |
2nd pts | 16/30 | 10/20 | 6/12 | 19/32 | 15/27 | 66/121 | |
% 2nd pts | 53% | 50% | 50% | 59% | 56% | 55% | |
Breaks | |||||||
Won | 4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 19 | |
Converted | 4/8 | 4/7 | 1/3 | 3/6 | 7/11 | 19/35 | |
Converted % | 50% | 57% | 33% | 50% | 64% | 54% | |
Conceded | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 21 | |
Saved | 0/2 | 2/2 | 3/3 | 4/5 | 5/9 | 14 | |
Saved % | 0% | 100% | 100% | 80% | 56% | 67% | |
Times Broken | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
Head 2 Head
Tennis Scores in Indian Wells
- David FerrerFerrer – Alexandr DolgopolovDolgopolov (6-4 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Maria SakkariSakkari (1-3) – H2H and prediction