H2H, PREDICTION Iga Swiatek vs Maria Sakkari | Indian Wells odds, preview, pick

PREVIEW. Indian Wells. Swiatek and Sakkari will clash against each other in the final of the BNP Paribas Open. See the prediction, H2H stats, odds, and preview of their upcoming match

Prediction and head to head Iga Swiatek vs. Maria Sakkari

Iga Swiatek and Maria Sakkari will face off in the final of the BNP Paribas Open for the 5th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Sunday at 3:00 pm on Stadium 1. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Iga Swiatek who should win in 3 sets.

See updated oddsAs per the initial odds, Iga Swiatek is the pick to win this match.
Iga Swiatek -> 1.53
Maria Sakkari -> 2.65

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Prediction and head to head Iga Swiatek vs. Maria Sakkari

This will be the 5th time that Iga Swiatek and Maria Sakkari clash against each other. The head to head is 3-1 for Sakkari (see full H2H stats),but they are 1-1 on hard.

The last time that they played, Swiatek won 6-4 6-3 in the semifinal in Doha back in February 2022.

Iga Swiatek

Iga Swiatek
Iga Swiatek

0 - 0win/loss

Rank
2
High
1
LWWWWWLWWW
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 9-2 9-2 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
2024 64-9 29-5 26-2 7-1 2-1 0-0
2023 68-11 42-8 19-2 0-0 7-1 0-0
2022 67-9 42-6 18-1 5-1 2-1 0-0
2021 36-15 18-10 12-2 2-1 4-2 0-0

Ranked no. 4 (career-high), the Pole got to the final after defeating Anhelina Kalinina 5-7 6-0 6-1, Clara Tauson 6-73 6-2 6-1, Angelique Kerber 4-6 6-2 6-3, Madison Keys 6-1 6-0 and Simona Halep 7-66 6-4.

In the semifinal, Iga had a good straight sets win against Halep (7-66 6-4). During the match, Swiatek scored 76 points vs Halep’s 68. Swiatek was quite aggressive to blast 23 winners.

Talking about the service games, Swiatek recorded 2 aces and she committed only 3 double faults. Iga Swiatek lost the serve 4 times and she saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Swiatek put 58% of her first serves in, winning 53% (23/43) of the points behind her 1st serve and 65% (20/31) on the 2nd serve. Iga broke Halep 5 times after converting 50% of her break points (5/10).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Iga has conceded 3 set in this tournament to conquer 57% of the points she played.

Swiatek has a fantastic win-loss record in the last 7 years having won 77% of her matches (169-50). 19-3 on hard in 2022. Talking about her performance on the same surface of this event, Swiatek has an aggregate68-26 match record in the last 7 years on hard.

Her best result of the current year was winning the title in in Doha where she overcame Anett Kontaveit in the final 6-2 6-0.

Swiatek has an aggregate 19-3 win-loss record in 2022, 19-3 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Indian Wells

Swiatek
Indian Wells
Swiatek's Record

Maria Sakkari

Maria Sakkari
Maria Sakkari

0 - 0win/loss

Rank
31
High
3
LLWLWLL
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 2-5 2-5 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
2024 25-17 12-8 11-6 0-0 2-3 0-0
2023 38-25 26-17 5-4 3-1 4-3 0-0
2022 40-23 21-12 8-5 4-2 7-4 0-0
2021 38-20 23-13 9-4 5-2 1-1 0-0

Ranked no. 6 (career-high), the Greek reached the final after defeating Katerina Siniakova 6-3 7-5, Petra Kvitova 6-3 6-0, Daria Saville 4-1 ret., Elena Rybakina 7-5 6-4 and Paula Badosa Gibert 6-2 4-6 6-1.

In the semifinal, Sakkari defeated Badosa (6-2 4-6 6-1). During the match Sakkari scored 84 points vs Badosa’s 65. Sakkari was exceptionally aggressive to blast 26 winners.

Talking about serving, Sakkari recorded 3 aces and she committed only 3 double faults. Maria Sakkari lost the serve 4 times and she saved 5 break points. Furthermore, Sakkari put 60% of her first serves in, winning 63% (26/41) of the points behind her 1st serve and 56% (15/27) on the 2nd serve. Maria broke Badosa 7 times after converting 64% of her break points (7/11).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Greek has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 57% of the points she played.

Sakkari’s best result of the year was getting to the final in St. Petersburg.

Maria has a compiled 16-4 win-loss record in 2022, 12-3 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Indian Wells

Previously, her best result was reaching the 4th round in 2018. See her history.

Sakkari
Indian Wells
Sakkari's Record
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H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

I.Swiatek
M.Sakkari
9h:11
9h:11
Time on court​
6h:47
6h:47
1h:49
1h:49
Last match​
1h:48
1h:48
5
5
Match played
5
5
116
116
Games Played​
88
88
13
13
Set played​​
11
11
423
423
Total points​
319
319
84.6
84.6
Avg point​
63.8
63.8
152
152
Winners
121
121
30.4
30.4
Avg Winners​
24.2
24.2
36%
36%
Ratio winners
38%
38%
-- Serve --
16
16
Aces
21
21
3.2
3.2
Avg Aces
4.2
4.2
14
14
Double Faults
13
13
2.8
2.8
Avg Double Faults
2.6
2.6
152/232
152/232
1st won total​
121/159
121/159
66%
66%
1st won %
!
76%
76%
73/140
73/140
2nd won total​
66/121
66/121
52%
52%
2nd won %
55%
55%
-- Break Points --
33/58
33/58
BP won
19/35
19/35
6.6/11.6
6.6/11.6
Avg BP won
3.8/7
3.8/7
!
57%
57%
Won
!
54%
54%
39
39
Conceded
21
21
7.8
7.8
Avg Conceded
4.2
4.2
16
16
Broken
7
7
3.2
3.2
Avg Broken
1.4
1.4
23
23
Saved
14
14

Matches, sets, games and points

Points Swiatek Sakkari
Match played 5 5
Tot Set 13 11
Tot Games 116 88
Pts 423-316 319-240
Total Points 739 559
Winners 152 121
%Winners 36% 38%

Both Swiatek and Sakkari played 5 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Iga Swiatek lost 3 sets, while Maria Sakkari surrendered 1 set. Swiatek has played 2 sets more than Sakkari (13 vs 11). Therefore, Swiatek played 28 games more than Sakkari. The Pole scored 152 winners (36% of the total points). On the other side, The Greek blasted 121 winners (38%).

Serve Performance

Serve Swiatek Sakkari
Aces 16 21
Avg per match 3.2 4.2
1st in 232/372 159/280
%1st in 62% 57%
1st pts 152/232 121/159
%1st pts 66% 76%
2nd pts 73/140 66/121
%2nd pts 52% 55%

Swiatek made 16 aces (3.2 per match). Sakkari scored 21 aces (4.2 per match). Swiatek won 66% points behind her first serve. She pretty solid on her second serve to win 52% of the points. On the other side, Sakkari won 76% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 55% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks Swiatek Sakkari
Won 33 19
Converted 33/58 19/35
% Converted 57% 54%
Conceded 39 21
Saved 23 14
% Saved 59% 67%
Times Broken 16 7

Iga broke her opponents 33 times with a 57% conversion rate. Swiatek lost her serve 16 times and she saved 59% of the break points that she conceded. Maria broke her opponents 19 times with a 54% conversion rate. Maria conceded her serve 7 times and she saved 67% of the break points that she conceded.

Swiatek
R2
Kalinina
R3
Tauson
R4
Kerber
1/4
Keys
1/2
Halep
Total
Score 5-7 6-0 6-1 6-73 6-2 6-1 4-6 6-2 6-3 6-1 6-0 7-66 6-4
Tot Set 3 3 3 2 2 13
Tot Games 25 28 27 13 23 116
pts 93-66 101-81 97-76 56-25 76-68 423-316
Total points 159 182 173 81 144 739
Winners 34 37 37 21 23 152
%Winners 37% 37% 38% 38% 30% 36%
SERVE
Aces 5 5 4 0 2 16
Double Faults 3 1 5 2 3 14
1st in 50/86 53/75 61/92 25/45 43/74 232/372
% 1st in 58% 71% 66% 56% 58% 62%
1st pts 34/50 37/53 37/61 21/25 23/43 152/232
% 1st pts 68% 70% 61% 84% 53% 66%
2nd pts 14/36 13/22 15/31 11/20 20/31 73/140
% 2nd pts 39% 59% 48% 55% 65% 52%
Breaks
Won 9 6 8 5 5 33
Converted 9/14 6/15 8/12 5/7 5/10 33/58
Converted % 64% 40% 67% 71% 50% 57%
Conceded 16 1 15 1 6 39
Saved 11/16 0/1 9/15 1/1 2/6 23
Saved % 69% 0% 60% 100% 33% 52%
Times Broken 5 1 6 0 4 16
Sakkari
R2
Siniakova
R3
Kvitova
R4
Gavrilova
1/4
Rybakina
1/2
Badosa
Total
Score 6-3 7-5 6-3 6-0 4-1 ret. 7-5 6-4 6-2 4-6 6-1
Tot Set 2 2 1 2 3 10
Tot Games 21 15 5 22 25 88
pts 74-56 59-35 28-20 74-64 84-65 319-240
Total points 130 94 48 138 149 559
Winners 29 24 13 29 26 121
%Winners 39% 41% 46% 39% 31% 38%
SERVE
Aces 6 5 1 6 3 21
Double Faults 6 0 0 4 3 13
1st in 38/68 25/45 17/29 38/70 41/68 159/280
% 1st in 56% 56% 59% 54% 60% 57%
1st pts 29/38 24/25 13/17 29/38 26/41 121/159
% 1st pts 76% 96% 76% 76% 63% 76%
2nd pts 16/30 10/20 6/12 19/32 15/27 66/121
% 2nd pts 53% 50% 50% 59% 56% 55%
Breaks
Won 4 4 1 3 7 19
Converted 4/8 4/7 1/3 3/6 7/11 19/35
Converted % 50% 57% 33% 50% 64% 54%
Conceded 2 2 3 5 9 21
Saved 0/2 2/2 3/3 4/5 5/9 14
Saved % 0% 100% 100% 80% 56% 67%
Times Broken 2 0 0 1 4 7

Head 2 Head

Win Loss
Swiatek
LWWWWWLWWW
Sakkari
LLWLWLL
2025 2024 2023
9 - 2
2 - 5
9-2
Hard
2-5

Tennis Scores in Indian Wells

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