Rafael Nadal is 2 wins away to conquer the title in Indian Wells. The Spaniard has defeated Sebastian Korda 6-2 1-6 7-63, Daniel Evans 7-5 6-3, Reilly Opelka 7-63 7-65 and Nick Kyrgios 7-60 5-7 6-4 to reach the semifinal where he will face Carlos Alcaraz.

Draw Prediction with head to head records

This is Rafael Nadal’s projected draw including the plausible opposition in BNP Paribas Open. The Spaniard has a a positive record (3-1) with the projected opponents.

R1 – Bye
R2 – Sebastian Korda (38) – 6-2 1-6 7-63
R3 – Daniel Evans (29) – 7-5 6-3
R4 – Reilly Opelka (17) – 7-63 7-65
1/4 – Nick Kyrgios (132) – 7-60 5-7 6-4
1/2 – Carlos Alcaraz (19) – H2H 1-0
Fin – Andrey Rublev (7) – H2H 2-1
or Taylor Harry Fritz (20) – H2H 1-0
Latest Updated
Draw

1/2 – Carlos Alcaraz’s rankings and performance.

Head to head 1-0 for Rafael Nadal

57 - 13win/loss in 2025

Rank
1
High
1
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2022 57-13 21-4 27-4 6-4 3-1 0-0
2021 48-19 15-8 22-7 10-3 1-1 0-0
2020 39-7 10-0 29-7 0-0 0-0 0-0
2019 18-10 3-2 15-8 0-0 0-0 0-0
2018 6-2 0-0 6-2 0-0 0-0 0-0

Carlos Alcaraz has a 12-1 record in 2022, 6-1 on hard. As for the previous 4 years, Alcaraz has a 34-11 record on hard. Alcaraz will try to keep a positive momentum since he is on a 10 matches winning streak.

His best result of this current year was winning the competition in Rio de Janeiro where he beat Diego Sebastian Schwartzman in the final 6-4 6-2.

Last year in BNP Paribas Open the Spaniard capitulated to Andy Murray in the 2nd

round 5-7 6-3 6-2.

H2H Rafael Nadal vs. Carlos Alcaraz

This would be the 2nd time that Rafael Nadal and Carlos Alcaraz play each other. The head to head is 1-0 for Nadal (see full H2H stats), but they have never competed against each other on hard in major tournaments.

Final – Andrey Rublev’s rankings and performance.

Head to head 2-1 for Rafael Nadal

51 - 20win/loss in 2025

Rank
8
High
5
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2022 51-20 19-7 14-6 18-6 0-1 0-0
2021 53-23 25-10 9-5 12-6 7-2 0-0
2020 41-10 17-4 10-2 14-4 0-0 0-0
2019 54-27 28-14 8-5 16-5 2-3 0-0
2018 21-24 10-12 2-3 9-9 0-0 0-0
2017 48-33 19-11 11-11 12-9 6-2 0-0
2016 38-33 6-7 12-14 19-10 1-2 0-0
2015 28-24 6-5 12-10 9-7 1-1 0-1

Andrey Rublev has a 18-2 win-loss record in 2022, 11-1 on hard. In the previous 10 years, the Russian has a 134-68 record on hard (Click here to see full career record). Andrey will try to keep a positive momentum since he is on a 10 matches winning streak.

His most significant achievement of this season was conquering the title in Marseille where he defeated Felix Auger Aliassime in the final 7-5 7-6(4), and in Dubai where he overcame Jiri Vesely in the final 6-3 6-4.

Last year in BNP Paribas Open Rublev surrendered to Tommy Paul in the 3rd round 6-4 3-6 7-5.

H2H Rafael Nadal vs. Andrey Rublev

This contest would be 4th time that Rafael Nadal and Andrey Rublev play each other. The head to head is 2-1 for Nadal (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard in major tournaments.

However, Rafael Nadal could come up against Taylor Harry Fritz. Their head to head record is 1-0 for Rafael Nadal.