Rafael Nadal and Carlos Alcaraz will play each other in the semifinal of the BNP Paribas Open for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Saturday at 3:30 pm on STADIUM 1. Here the head to head stats and relative prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Rafael Nadal who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Rafael Nadal is the pick to win this match.
Rafael Nadal -> 1.55
Carlos Alcaraz -> 2.59
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Prediction and head to head Rafael Nadal vs. Carlos Alcaraz
This will be the 2nd time that Rafael Nadal and Carlos Alcaraz clash against each other. The head to head is 1-0 for Nadal (see full H2H stats), but they have never competed against each other on hard.
The last time that they squared off, Nadal won 6-1 6-2 in the 2nd round in Madrid back in 2021.
Highlights Rafael Nadal vs Carlos Alcaraz – Madrid 05-May-2021
Rafael Nadal
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 7-5 | 2-1 | 5-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 39-8 | 23-3 | 10-2 | 1-3 | 5-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 24-5 | 5-2 | 19-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 27-7 | 13-3 | 9-1 | 5-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 4, the Spaniard got to the semifinal after beating Sebastian Korda 6-2 1-6 7-63, Daniel Evans 7-5 6-3, Reilly Opelka 7-63 7-65 and Nick Kyrgios 7-60 5-7 6-4.
In the quarter, The Spaniard defeated Kyrgios (7-60 5-7 6-4). During the match, Nadal scored 106 points vs Kyrgios’s 103. Rafael was quite aggressive to blast 52 winners.
Regarding the service games, Nadal scored 10 aces and he committed only 7 double faults. Rafael Nadal lost the serve twice and he saved 3 break points. Furthermore, Nadal put 66% of his first serves in, winning 78% (52/67) of the points behind his 1st serve and 49% (17/35) on the 2nd serve. Rafael broke Kyrgios twice after converting 50% of his break points (2/4).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Nadal has lost 2 set in this competition to win 53% of the points he played.
Nadal has an extraordinary win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 84% of his matches (464-87). 19-0 on hard in 2022. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this event, Nadal has an overall 195-43 record in the last years on hard.
His best result of the season was winning the title in in Melbourne where he defeated Maxime Cressy in the final 7-6(6) 6-3 and in at the Australian Open where he beat Daniil Medvedev in the final 2-6 6-7(5) 6-4 6-4 7-5 and in in Acapulco where he defeated Cameron Norrie in the final 6-4 6-4.
The Spaniard has an overall 19-0 win-loss record in 2022, 19-0 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Indian Wells
Carlos Alcaraz
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 26-6 | 13-2 | 12-3 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 65-12 | 26-6 | 25-3 | 2-3 | 12-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 57-13 | 21-4 | 27-4 | 6-4 | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 48-19 | 15-8 | 22-7 | 10-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 39-7 | 10-0 | 29-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 19 (career-high), Alcaraz got to the semifinal after defeating Mackenzie Mcdonald 6-3 6-3, Roberto Bautista Agut 6-2 6-0, Gael Monfils 7-5 6-1 and Cameron Norrie 6-4 6-3.
In the quarter, Carlos had a good straight sets win against Norrie (6-4 6-3). During the match Alcaraz scored 74 points vs Norrie’s 59. Alcaraz was pretty aggressive to blast 26 winners.
About the serving games, Alcaraz wasn’t able to score even 1 ace for the entire match and he committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Carlos Alcaraz lost the serve 4 times and he saved 5 break points. Furthermore, Alcaraz put 62% of his first serves in, winning 59% (26/44) of the points behind his 1st serve and 48% (13/27) on the 2nd serve. Alcaraz broke Norrie 6 times after converting 75% of his break points (6/8).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Carlos hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 59% of the points he played.
His best result of the year was conquering the title in in Rio de Janeiro where he defeated Diego Sebastian Schwartzman in the final 6-4 6-2.
Carlos has a composed 12-1 win-loss record in 2022, 6-1 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Indian Wells
Previously, his best result was reaching the 2nd round in 2021. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Nadal | Alcaraz |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 4 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 10 | 8 |
| Tot Games | 110 | 70 |
| Pts | 362-324 | 266-184 |
| Total Points | 686 | 450 |
| Winners | 162 | 96 |
| %Winners | 45% | 36% |
Both Nadal and Alcaraz played 4 matches. At the moment, Rafael Nadal dropped 2 sets while Carlos Alcaraz hasn’t dropped a set so far. Nadal has played 2 sets more than Alcaraz (10 vs 8). Therefore, Nadal played 40 games more than Alcaraz. Nadal scored 162 winners (45% of the total points). On the other side, Alcaraz blasted 96 winners (36%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Nadal | Alcaraz |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 25 | 8 |
| Avg per match | 6.3 | 2 |
| 1st in | 219/339 | 134/214 |
| %1st in | 65% | 63% |
| 1st pts | 162/219 | 96/134 |
| %1st pts | 74% | 72% |
| 2nd pts | 69/120 | 45/80 |
| %2nd pts | 58% | 56% |
Nadal recorded 25 aces (6.3 per match). Alcaraz fired 8 aces (2 per match). Nadal won 74% points behind his first serve. He was rock solid on his second serve to win 58% of the points. On the other side, Alcaraz won 72% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 56% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Nadal | Alcaraz |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 10 | 20 |
| Converted | 10/19 | 20/33 |
| % Converted | 53% | 61% |
| Conceded | 24 | 16 |
| Saved | 16 | 10 |
| % Saved | 67% | 63% |
| Times Broken | 8 | 6 |
Nadal broke his opponents 10 times with a 53% conversion rate. The Spaniard surrendered his serve 8 times and he saved 67% of the break points that he conceded. Alcaraz broke his opponents 20 times with a 61% conversion rate. Alcaraz conceded his serve 6 times and he saved 63% of the break points that he conceded.
| Nadal | ||||||
| R2 Korda |
R3 Evans |
R4 Opelka |
1/4 Kyrgios |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 1-6 7-63 | 7-5 6-3 | 7-63 7-65 | 7-60 5-7 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | |
| Tot Games | 28 | 21 | 26 | 35 | 110 | |
| pts | 95-90 | 68-53 | 93-78 | 106-103 | 362-324 | |
| Total points | 185 | 121 | 171 | 209 | 686 | |
| Winners | 37 | 30 | 43 | 52 | 162 | |
| %Winners | 39% | 44% | 46% | 49% | 45% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 5 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 25 | |
| Double Faults | 8 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 23 | |
| 1st in | 61/98 | 40/66 | 51/73 | 67/102 | 219/339 | |
| % 1st in | 62% | 61% | 70% | 66% | 65% | |
| 1st pts | 37/61 | 30/40 | 43/51 | 52/67 | 162/219 | |
| % 1st pts | 61% | 75% | 84% | 78% | 74% | |
| 2nd pts | 19/37 | 17/26 | 16/22 | 17/35 | 69/120 | |
| % 2nd pts | 51% | 65% | 73% | 49% | 58% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | |
| Converted | 4/6 | 3/4 | 1/5 | 2/4 | 10/19 | |
| Converted % | 67% | 75% | 20% | 50% | 53% | |
| Conceded | 11 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 24 | |
| Saved | 7/11 | 3/4 | 3/4 | 3/5 | 16 | |
| Saved % | 64% | 75% | 75% | 60% | 69% | |
| Times Broken | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | |
| Alcaraz | ||||||
| R2 Mcdonald |
R3 Bautista-Agut |
R4 Monfils |
1/4 Norrie |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-3 | 6-2 6-0 | 7-5 6-1 | 6-4 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | |
| Tot Games | 18 | 14 | 19 | 19 | 70 | |
| pts | 67-53 | 57-30 | 68-42 | 74-59 | 266-184 | |
| Total points | 120 | 87 | 110 | 133 | 450 | |
| Winners | 21 | 23 | 26 | 26 | 96 | |
| %Winners | 31% | 40% | 38% | 35% | 36% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 8 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | |
| 1st in | 33/57 | 27/43 | 30/43 | 44/71 | 134/214 | |
| % 1st in | 58% | 63% | 70% | 62% | 63% | |
| 1st pts | 21/33 | 23/27 | 26/30 | 26/44 | 96/134 | |
| % 1st pts | 64% | 85% | 87% | 59% | 72% | |
| 2nd pts | 14/24 | 8/16 | 10/13 | 13/27 | 45/80 | |
| % 2nd pts | 58% | 50% | 77% | 48% | 56% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 5 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 20 | |
| Converted | 5/9 | 5/9 | 4/7 | 6/8 | 20/33 | |
| Converted % | 56% | 56% | 57% | 75% | 61% | |
| Conceded | 6 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 16 | |
| Saved | 4/6 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 5/9 | 10 | |
| Saved % | 67% | 100% | – | 56% | 56% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | |
Head 2 Head
LLWLWWWLWL
LWWWWWWWWL Tennis Scores in Indian Wells
- Taylor Harry FritzHarry Fritz – Miomir KecmanovicKecmanovic (7-65 3-6 6-1) – See score progression
- Andrey RublevRublev – Grigor DimitrovDimitrov (7-5 6-2) – See score progression
- Rafael NadalNadal – Nick KyrgiosKyrgios (7-60 5-7 6-4) – See score progression
- Rajeev Ram/Joe SalisburyRam/Joe Salisbury – Wesley Koolhof/Neal SkupskiKoolhof/Neal Skupski (7-64 7-5) – See score progression
- Carlos AlcarazAlcaraz – Cameron NorrieNorrie (6-4 6-3) – See score progression
- Santiago Gonzalez/Edouard Roger-VasselinGonzalez/Edouard Roger-Vasselin – Aslan Karatsev/Andrey RublevKaratsev/Andrey Rublev (6-2 6-4) – See score progression
- Taylor Harry FritzHarry Fritz – Miomir KecmanovicKecmanovic (7-6(5) 3-6 6-1) – See score progression
- Andrey RublevRublev – Grigor DimitrovDimitrov (7-5 6-2) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia – Rafael NadalNadal (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Taylor Harry FritzHarry Fritz – Andrey RublevRublev (2-2) – H2H and prediction
