Maria Sakkari and Elena Rybakina will play each other in the quarter of the BNP Paribas Open for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Thursday at 11:00 am on STADIUM 1. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Maria Sakkari who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Maria Sakkari is the pick to win this match.
Maria Sakkari -> 1.61
Elena Rybakina -> 2.44

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Prediction and head to head Maria Sakkari vs. Elena Rybakina

This will be the 2nd time that Maria Sakkari and Elena Rybakina play each other. The head to head is 1-0 for Rybakina (see full H2H stats), but they have never played each other on hard.

The last time that they played, Rybakina won 3-6 7-5 6-1 in the semifinal in St. Petersburg back in 2020.

Highlights Elena Rybakina vs Maria Sakkari – St. Petersburg 15-February-2020

Maria Sakkari

Maria Sakkari

0 - 0win/loss

Rank
52
High
3
LWWLLWLLWW
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 25-29 14-19 7-5 1-1 3-4 0-0
2024 25-17 12-8 11-6 0-0 2-3 0-0
2023 38-25 26-17 5-4 3-1 4-3 0-0
2022 40-23 21-12 8-5 4-2 7-4 0-0
2021 38-20 23-13 9-4 5-2 1-1 0-0

Ranked no. 6 (career-high), Sakkari got to the quarter after beating Katerina Siniakova 6-3 7-5, Petra Kvitova 6-3 6-0 and Daria Saville 4-1 ret..

In the 4th round, Maria had a good straight sets win against Gavrilova (4-1 ret.). During the match, Sakkari scored 28 points vs Gavrilova’s 20. Maria was very aggressive to blast 13 winners.

Regarding the service games, Sakkari scored just 1 ace in the encounter and she was very consistent in conceding no double faults. Maria Sakkari conceded no breaks for the entire match to save 3 break points. Furthermore, Sakkari put 59% of her first serves in, winning 76% (13/17) of the points behind her 1st serve and 50% (6/12) on the 2nd serve. Maria broke Gavrilova once after converting 33% of her break points (1/3).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Greek hasn’t dropped yet a set in this competition to conquer 59% of the points she played.

Sakkari has a solid match record in the last 9 years having won 62% of her matches (344-211). 10-3 on hard in 2022. In connection with her performance on the same surface of this competition, Sakkari has an aggregate163-105 record in the last 9 years on hard.

The Greek’s best result of the year was reaching the final in St. Petersburg.

The Greek has an overall 14-4 win-loss record in 2022, 10-3 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Indian Wells

Indian Wells
Sakkari's Record

Elena Rybakina

Elena Rybakina

0 - 0win/loss

Rank
5
High
3
WWWWWWWWWW
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 59-19 37-13 9-3 8-0 5-3 0-0
2024 43-11 23-5 12-2 2-2 6-2 0-0
2023 47-15 31-11 11-2 0-0 5-2 0-0
2022 40-21 18-12 9-5 5-2 8-2 0-0
2021 33-23 18-14 6-4 2-2 7-3 0-0

Ranked no. 20, Elena got to the quarter after defeating Alison Van Uytvanck 6-1 7-5, Victoria Azarenka 6-3 6-4 and Viktorija Golubic 7-65 6-2.

In the 4th round, The Kazakhstani had a good straight sets win against Golubic (7-65 6-2). During the match Rybakina scored 70 points vs Golubic’s 53. The Kazakhstani was very aggressive to blast 23 winners.

Talking about serving, Rybakina bagged 5 aces and she committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Overall, Elena Rybakina was pretty efficient on serve to win 74% (23/31) of her 1st serve and 65% (17/26) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent her to concede the serve once. The Kazakhstani was clinical in her return game without wasting any break point and break Golubic 3 times.

Overall Performance in this tournament

Elena hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 57% of the points she played.

Rybakina’s best result of the year was getting to the final in Adelaide.

The Kazakhstani has an overall 10-3 win-loss record in 2022, 9-3 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Indian Wells

Previously, her best result was reaching the 2nd round in 2021. See her history

.
Indian Wells
Rybakina's Record

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

M.Sakkari
E.Rybakina
3h:21
3h:21
Time on court​
4h:33
4h:33
!
0h:41
0h:41
Last match​
1h:32
1h:32
3
3
Match played
3
3
41
41
Games Played​
59
59
6
6
Set played​​
6
6
161
161
Total points​
222
222
53.7
53.7
Avg point​
74
74
66
66
Winners
77
77
22
22
Avg Winners​
25.7
25.7
41%
41%
Ratio winners
35%
35%
-- Serve --
12
12
Aces
13
13
4
4
Avg Aces
4.3
4.3
6
6
Double Faults
4
4
2
2
Avg Double Faults
1.3
1.3
66/80
66/80
1st won total​
77/103
77/103
!
83%
83%
1st won %
!
75%
75%
32/62
32/62
2nd won total​
54/82
54/82
52%
52%
2nd won %
!
66%
66%
-- Break Points --
9/18
9/18
BP won
8/19
8/19
3/6
3/6
Avg BP won
2.7/6.3
2.7/6.3
50%
50%
Won
42%
42%
7
7
Conceded
10
10
2.3
2.3
Avg Conceded
3.3
3.3
2
2
Broken
1
1
!
0.7
0.7
Avg Broken
!
0.3
0.3
5
5
Saved
9
9

Matches, sets, games and points

Points Sakkari Rybakina
Match played 3 3
Tot Set 6 6
Tot Games 41 59
Pts 161-111 222-170
Total Points 272 392
Winners 66 77
%Winners 41% 35%

Both Sakkari and Rybakina played 3 matches. Both players have not dropped a single set in this event so far. Talking about their workload, Sakkari and Rybakina have played the same amount of sets 6. However, Sakkari played 18 games less than Rybakina. Sakkari scored 66 winners (41% of the total points). On the other side, Elena blasted 77 winners (35%).

Serve Performance

Serve Sakkari Rybakina
Aces 12 13
Avg per match 4 4.3
1st in 80/142 103/185
%1st in 56% 56%
1st pts 66/80 77/103
%1st pts 83% 75%
2nd pts 32/62 54/82
%2nd pts 52% 66%

Sakkari made 12 aces (4 per match). Rybakina recorded 13 aces (4.3 per match). Sakkari won 83% points on her first serve. She very solid her second serve to win 52% of the points. On the other side, Rybakina won 75% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 66% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks Sakkari Rybakina
Won 9 8
Converted 9/18 8/19
% Converted 50% 42%
Conceded 7 10
Saved 5 9
% Saved 71% 90%
Times Broken 2 1

Maria broke her opponents 9 times with a 50% conversion rate. Maria conceded her serve twice and she saved 71% of the break points that she conceded. Elena broke her opponents 8 times with a 42% conversion rate. Elena conceded her serve once and she saved 90% of the break points that she conceded.

Sakkari
R2
Siniakova
R3
Kvitova
R4
Gavrilova
Total
Score 6-3 7-5 6-3 6-0 4-1 ret.
Tot Set 2 2 1 5
Tot Games 21 15 5 41
pts 74-56 59-35 28-20 161-111
Total points 130 94 48 272
Winners 29 24 13 66
%Winners 39% 41% 46% 41%
SERVE
Aces 6 5 1 12
Double Faults 6 0 0 6
1st in 38/68 25/45 17/29 80/142
% 1st in 56% 56% 59% 56%
1st pts 29/38 24/25 13/17 66/80
% 1st pts 76% 96% 76% 83%
2nd pts 16/30 10/20 6/12 32/62
% 2nd pts 53% 50% 50% 52%
Breaks
Won 4 4 1 9
Converted 4/8 4/7 1/3 9/18
Converted % 50% 57% 33% 50%
Conceded 2 2 3 7
Saved 0/2 2/2 3/3 5
Saved % 0% 100% 100% 67%
Times Broken 2 0 0 2
Rybakina
R2
Van Uytvanck
R3
Azarenka
R4
Golubic
Total
Score 6-1 7-5 6-3 6-4 7-65 6-2
Tot Set 2 2 2 6
Tot Games 19 19 21 59
pts 76-59 76-58 70-53 222-170
Total points 135 134 123 392
Winners 28 26 23 77
%Winners 37% 34% 33% 35%
SERVE
Aces 3 5 5 13
Double Faults 3 0 1 4
1st in 42/72 30/56 31/57 103/185
% 1st in 58% 54% 54% 56%
1st pts 28/42 26/30 23/31 77/103
% 1st pts 67% 87% 74% 75%
2nd pts 20/30 17/26 17/26 54/82
% 2nd pts 67% 65% 65% 66%
Breaks
Won 3 2 3 8
Converted 3/8 2/8 3/3 8/19
Converted % 38% 25% 100% 42%
Conceded 7 1 2 10
Saved 7/7 1/1 1/2 9
Saved % 100% 100% 50% 83%
Times Broken 0 0 1 1

Tennis Scores in Indian Wells

Upcoming matches in the draw