Maria Sakkari and Elena Rybakina will play each other in the quarter of the BNP Paribas Open for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Thursday at 11:00 am on STADIUM 1. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Maria Sakkari who should win in 3 sets.
Maria Sakkari -> 1.61
Elena Rybakina -> 2.44
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Prediction and head to head Maria Sakkari vs. Elena Rybakina
This will be the 2nd time that Maria Sakkari and Elena Rybakina play each other. The head to head is 1-0 for Rybakina (see full H2H stats), but they have never played each other on hard.
The last time that they played, Rybakina won 3-6 7-5 6-1 in the semifinal in St. Petersburg back in 2020.
Highlights Elena Rybakina vs Maria Sakkari – St. Petersburg 15-February-2020
Maria Sakkari
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 25-29 | 14-19 | 7-5 | 1-1 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 25-17 | 12-8 | 11-6 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 38-25 | 26-17 | 5-4 | 3-1 | 4-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 40-23 | 21-12 | 8-5 | 4-2 | 7-4 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 38-20 | 23-13 | 9-4 | 5-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 6 (career-high), Sakkari got to the quarter after beating Katerina Siniakova 6-3 7-5, Petra Kvitova 6-3 6-0 and Daria Saville 4-1 ret..
In the 4th round, Maria had a good straight sets win against Gavrilova (4-1 ret.). During the match, Sakkari scored 28 points vs Gavrilova’s 20. Maria was very aggressive to blast 13 winners.
Regarding the service games, Sakkari scored just 1 ace in the encounter and she was very consistent in conceding no double faults. Maria Sakkari conceded no breaks for the entire match to save 3 break points. Furthermore, Sakkari put 59% of her first serves in, winning 76% (13/17) of the points behind her 1st serve and 50% (6/12) on the 2nd serve. Maria broke Gavrilova once after converting 33% of her break points (1/3).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Greek hasn’t dropped yet a set in this competition to conquer 59% of the points she played.
Sakkari has a solid match record in the last 9 years having won 62% of her matches (344-211). 10-3 on hard in 2022. In connection with her performance on the same surface of this competition, Sakkari has an aggregate163-105 record in the last 9 years on hard.
The Greek’s best result of the year was reaching the final in St. Petersburg.
The Greek has an overall 14-4 win-loss record in 2022, 10-3 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Indian Wells
Elena Rybakina
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 59-19 | 37-13 | 9-3 | 8-0 | 5-3 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 43-11 | 23-5 | 12-2 | 2-2 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 47-15 | 31-11 | 11-2 | 0-0 | 5-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 40-21 | 18-12 | 9-5 | 5-2 | 8-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 33-23 | 18-14 | 6-4 | 2-2 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 20, Elena got to the quarter after defeating Alison Van Uytvanck 6-1 7-5, Victoria Azarenka 6-3 6-4 and Viktorija Golubic 7-65 6-2.
In the 4th round, The Kazakhstani had a good straight sets win against Golubic (7-65 6-2). During the match Rybakina scored 70 points vs Golubic’s 53. The Kazakhstani was very aggressive to blast 23 winners.
Talking about serving, Rybakina bagged 5 aces and she committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Overall, Elena Rybakina was pretty efficient on serve to win 74% (23/31) of her 1st serve and 65% (17/26) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent her to concede the serve once. The Kazakhstani was clinical in her return game without wasting any break point and break Golubic 3 times.
Overall Performance in this tournament
Elena hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 57% of the points she played.
Rybakina’s best result of the year was getting to the final in Adelaide.
The Kazakhstani has an overall 10-3 win-loss record in 2022, 9-3 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Indian Wells
Previously, her best result was reaching the 2nd round in 2021. See her history
.H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Sakkari | Rybakina |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 3 | 3 |
| Tot Set | 6 | 6 |
| Tot Games | 41 | 59 |
| Pts | 161-111 | 222-170 |
| Total Points | 272 | 392 |
| Winners | 66 | 77 |
| %Winners | 41% | 35% |
Both Sakkari and Rybakina played 3 matches. Both players have not dropped a single set in this event so far. Talking about their workload, Sakkari and Rybakina have played the same amount of sets 6. However, Sakkari played 18 games less than Rybakina. Sakkari scored 66 winners (41% of the total points). On the other side, Elena blasted 77 winners (35%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Sakkari | Rybakina |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 12 | 13 |
| Avg per match | 4 | 4.3 |
| 1st in | 80/142 | 103/185 |
| %1st in | 56% | 56% |
| 1st pts | 66/80 | 77/103 |
| %1st pts | 83% | 75% |
| 2nd pts | 32/62 | 54/82 |
| %2nd pts | 52% | 66% |
Sakkari made 12 aces (4 per match). Rybakina recorded 13 aces (4.3 per match). Sakkari won 83% points on her first serve. She very solid her second serve to win 52% of the points. On the other side, Rybakina won 75% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 66% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Sakkari | Rybakina |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 9 | 8 |
| Converted | 9/18 | 8/19 |
| % Converted | 50% | 42% |
| Conceded | 7 | 10 |
| Saved | 5 | 9 |
| % Saved | 71% | 90% |
| Times Broken | 2 | 1 |
Maria broke her opponents 9 times with a 50% conversion rate. Maria conceded her serve twice and she saved 71% of the break points that she conceded. Elena broke her opponents 8 times with a 42% conversion rate. Elena conceded her serve once and she saved 90% of the break points that she conceded.
| Sakkari | |||||
| R2 Siniakova | R3 Kvitova | R4 Gavrilova | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 7-5 | 6-3 6-0 | 4-1 ret. | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | |
| Tot Games | 21 | 15 | 5 | 41 | |
| pts | 74-56 | 59-35 | 28-20 | 161-111 | |
| Total points | 130 | 94 | 48 | 272 | |
| Winners | 29 | 24 | 13 | 66 | |
| %Winners | 39% | 41% | 46% | 41% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 6 | 5 | 1 | 12 | |
| Double Faults | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | |
| 1st in | 38/68 | 25/45 | 17/29 | 80/142 | |
| % 1st in | 56% | 56% | 59% | 56% | |
| 1st pts | 29/38 | 24/25 | 13/17 | 66/80 | |
| % 1st pts | 76% | 96% | 76% | 83% | |
| 2nd pts | 16/30 | 10/20 | 6/12 | 32/62 | |
| % 2nd pts | 53% | 50% | 50% | 52% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 4 | 4 | 1 | 9 | |
| Converted | 4/8 | 4/7 | 1/3 | 9/18 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 57% | 33% | 50% | |
| Conceded | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | |
| Saved | 0/2 | 2/2 | 3/3 | 5 | |
| Saved % | 0% | 100% | 100% | 67% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| Rybakina | |||||
| R2 Van Uytvanck | R3 Azarenka | R4 Golubic | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-1 7-5 | 6-3 6-4 | 7-65 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | |
| Tot Games | 19 | 19 | 21 | 59 | |
| pts | 76-59 | 76-58 | 70-53 | 222-170 | |
| Total points | 135 | 134 | 123 | 392 | |
| Winners | 28 | 26 | 23 | 77 | |
| %Winners | 37% | 34% | 33% | 35% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 3 | 5 | 5 | 13 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | |
| 1st in | 42/72 | 30/56 | 31/57 | 103/185 | |
| % 1st in | 58% | 54% | 54% | 56% | |
| 1st pts | 28/42 | 26/30 | 23/31 | 77/103 | |
| % 1st pts | 67% | 87% | 74% | 75% | |
| 2nd pts | 20/30 | 17/26 | 17/26 | 54/82 | |
| % 2nd pts | 67% | 65% | 65% | 66% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 3 | 2 | 3 | 8 | |
| Converted | 3/8 | 2/8 | 3/3 | 8/19 | |
| Converted % | 38% | 25% | 100% | 42% | |
| Conceded | 7 | 1 | 2 | 10 | |
| Saved | 7/7 | 1/1 | 1/2 | 9 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 100% | 50% | 83% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
Tennis Scores in Indian Wells
- Simona HalepHalep – Petra MarticMartic (6-1 6-1) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Gabriela Dabrowski/Giuliana OlmosDabrowski/Giuliana Olmos – Irina-Camelia Begu/Monica NiculescuBegu/Monica Niculescu (6-2 2-6 9-7) – Stats, scores, rankings
- David FerrerFerrer – Henri LaaksonenLaaksonen (7-5 3-6 7-63) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Fernando VerdascoVerdasco – Albert Ramos-VinolasRamos-Vinolas (6-3 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Andrey KuznetsovKuznetsov – Diego Sebastian SchwartzmanSebastian Schwartzman (6-3 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Alexandr DolgopolovDolgopolov – Karen KhachanovKhachanov (7-65 3-6 7-62) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Madison KeysKeys (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Paula Badosa GibertBadosa Gibert – Veronika KudermetovaKudermetova (0-3) – H2H and prediction
- Maria SakkariSakkari – Elena RybakinaRybakina (0-1) – H2H and prediction