Rafael Nadal and Reilly Opelka will square off in the 4th round of the BNP Paribas Open for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Wednesday at 1:30 pm on STADIUM 1. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Rafael Nadal who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Rafael Nadal is the pick to win this match.
Rafael Nadal -> 1.157
Reilly Opelka -> 6

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Prediction and head to head Rafael Nadal vs. Reilly Opelka

This will be the 2nd time that Rafael Nadal and Reilly Opelka face off. The head to head is 1-0 for Nadal (see full H2H stats), but they have never competed against each other on hard.

The last time that they locked horns, Nadal won 6-4 6-4 in the semifinal in Rome back in 2021.

Highlights Rafael Nadal vs Reilly Opelka – Rome 15-May-2021

Rafael Nadal

Rafael Nadal

0 - 0win/loss

Rank
153
High
1
LLWLWWWWLL
See allSTATS
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2024 12-8 2-1 10-6 0-1 0-0 0-0
2023 1-3 1-3 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
2022 39-8 23-3 10-2 1-3 5-0 0-0
2021 24-5 5-2 19-3 0-0 0-0 0-0
2020 27-7 13-3 9-1 5-3 0-0 0-0
See all years

Ranked no. 4, the Spaniard got to the 4th round after defeating Sebastian Korda 6-2 1-6 7-63 and Daniel Evans 7-5 6-3.

In the 3rd round, Nadal had a good straight sets win against Evans (7-5 6-3). During the match, Nadal scored 68 points vs Evans’s 53. Nadal was very aggressive to blast 30 winners.

Regarding the service games, Nadal managed to score 4 aces and he committed only 5 double faults. Overall, Rafael Nadal was exceptionally effective on serve to win 75% (30/40) of his 1st serve and 65% (17/26) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. The Spaniard broke Evans 3 times after converting 75% of his break points (3/4).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Rafael has conceded 1 set in this competition to win 53% of the points he played.

Nadal has a good match record in the last 10 years having won 84% of his matches (462-87). 17-0 on hard in 2022. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this event, Nadal has a composed 193-43 record in the last years on hard.

His best result of the current year was winning the title in in Melbourne where he beat Maxime Cressy in the final 7-6(6) 6-3 and in at the Australian Open where he overcame Daniil Medvedev in the final 2-6 6-7(5) 6-4 6-4 7-5 and in in Acapulco where he overcame Cameron Norrie in the final 6-4 6-4.

Rafael has a compiled 17-0 win-loss record in 2022, 17-0 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Indian Wells

Indian Wells
Nadal's Record

Reilly Opelka

Reilly Opelka

0 - 0win/loss

Rank
50
High
17
LLWLWWWWLL
See allSTATS
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 33-28 14-11 5-6 7-6 7-5 0-0
2024 8-10 2-8 0-0 3-1 3-1 0-0
2023 1-0 0-0 0-0 1-0 0-0 0-0
2022 21-15 10-7 6-5 4-0 1-3 0-0
2021 21-23 14-11 6-4 1-6 0-2 0-0
See all years

Ranked no. 17 (career-high), Reilly reached the 4th round after beating Lorenzo Musetti 6-1 6-4 and Denis Shapovalov 6-74 6-4 6-4.

In the 3rd round against Shapovalov, Reilly recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (6-74 6-4 6-4). During the match Opelka scored 100 points vs Shapovalov’s 97. The American was quite aggressive to blast 55 winners.

Talking about serving, Opelka made 11 aces and he committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Reilly Opelka was quite effective on serve to win 74% (55/74) of his 1st serve and 63% (17/27) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Reilly broke Shapovalov twice after converting 67% of his break points (2/3).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The American has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 54% of the points he played.

His best result of the season was winning the title in in Dallas where he defeated Jenson Brooksby in the final 7-6(5) 7-6(3).

Reilly has an overall 13-4 win-loss record in 2022, 9-4 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Indian Wells

Previously, his best result was reaching the 3rd

round in 2021. See his history.
Indian Wells
Opelka's Record

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

R.Nadal
R.Opelka
4h:12
4h:12
Time on court​
3h:22
3h:22
1h:43
1h:43
Last match​
!
2h:16
2h:16
2
2
Match played
2
2
49
49
Games Played​
50
50
5
5
Set played​​
5
5
163
163
Total points​
159
159
81.5
81.5
Avg point​
79.5
79.5
67
67
Winners
77
77
33.5
33.5
Avg Winners​
38.5
38.5
41%
41%
Ratio winners
48%
48%
-- Serve --
9
9
Aces
20
20
4.5
4.5
Avg Aces
10
10
13
13
Double Faults
3
3
!
6.5
6.5
Avg Double Faults
1.5
1.5
67/101
67/101
1st won total​
77/101
77/101
66%
66%
1st won %
!
76%
76%
36/63
36/63
2nd won total​
32/47
32/47
57%
57%
2nd won %
!
68%
68%
-- Break Points --
7/10
7/10
BP won
5/9
5/9
3.5/5
3.5/5
Avg BP won
2.5/4.5
2.5/4.5
!
70%
70%
Won
!
56%
56%
15
15
Conceded
4
4
7.5
7.5
Avg Conceded
2
2
5
5
Broken
0
0
2.5
2.5
Avg Broken
!
0
0
10
10
Saved
4
4
See Allstats

Matches, sets, games and points

Points Nadal Opelka
Match played 2 2
Tot Set 5 5
Tot Games 49 50
Pts 163-143 159-135
Total Points 306 294
Winners 67 77
%Winners 41% 48%

Both Nadal and Opelka played 2 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Rafael Nadal conceded 1 set, while Reilly Opelka surrendered 1 set. Talking about their workload, Nadal and Opelka have played the same amount of sets 5. However, Nadal played 1 game less than Opelka. The Spaniard scored 67 winners (41% of the total points). On the other side, Reilly struck 77 winners (48%).

Serve Performance

Serve Nadal Opelka
Aces 9 20
Avg per match 4.5 10
1st in 101/164 101/148
%1st in 62% 68%
1st pts 67/101 77/101
%1st pts 66% 76%
2nd pts 36/63 32/47
%2nd pts 57% 68%

Nadal scored 9 aces (4.5 per match). Opelka managed to score 20 aces (10 per match). Nadal won 66% points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 57% of the points. On the other side, Opelka won 76% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 68% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks Nadal Opelka
Won 7 5
Converted 7/10 5/9
% Converted 70% 56%
Conceded 15 4
Saved 10 4
% Saved 67% 100%
Times Broken 5 0

The Spaniard broke his opponents 7 times with a 70% conversion rate. Nadal conceded his serve 5 times and he saved 67% of the break points that he conceded. Opelka broke his opponents 5 times with a 56% conversion rate. Reilly was rock solid on his serve as he has never conceded a single service game after saving 4 break points.

Nadal
R2
Korda		 R3
Evans		 Total
Score 6-2 1-6 7-63 7-5 6-3
Tot Set 3 2 5
Tot Games 28 21 49
pts 95-90 68-53 163-143
Total points 185 121 306
Winners 37 30 67
%Winners 39% 44% 41%
SERVE
Aces 5 4 9
Double Faults 8 5 13
1st in 61/98 40/66 101/164
% 1st in 62% 61% 62%
1st pts 37/61 30/40 67/101
% 1st pts 61% 75% 66%
2nd pts 19/37 17/26 36/63
% 2nd pts 51% 65% 57%
Breaks
Won 4 3 7
Converted 4/6 3/4 7/10
Converted % 67% 75% 70%
Conceded 11 4 15
Saved 7/11 3/4 10
Saved % 64% 75% 70%
Times Broken 4 1 5
Opelka
R2
Musetti		 R3
Shapovalov		 Total
Score 6-1 6-4 6-74 6-4 6-4
Tot Set 2 3 5
Tot Games 17 33 50
pts 59-38 100-97 159-135
Total points 97 197 294
Winners 22 55 77
%Winners 37% 55% 48%
SERVE
Aces 9 11 20
Double Faults 2 1 3
1st in 27/47 74/101 101/148
% 1st in 57% 73% 68%
1st pts 22/27 55/74 77/101
% 1st pts 81% 74% 76%
2nd pts 15/20 17/27 32/47
% 2nd pts 75% 63% 68%
Breaks
Won 3 2 5
Converted 3/6 2/3 5/9
Converted % 50% 67% 56%
Conceded 0 4 4
Saved 0/0 4/4 4
Saved % – 100% 50%
Times Broken 0 0 0

Tennis Scores in Indian Wells

Upcoming matches in the draw

Nadal
More Stats
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Opelka

Click for FULL STATS