Kaia Kanepi and Harriet Dart will fight against each other in the 3rd round of the BNP Paribas Open for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Sunday at 4:00 pm on STADIUM 4. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Kaia Kanepi who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Kaia Kanepi is the pick to win this match.
Kaia Kanepi -> 1.285
Harriet Dart -> 3.8

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Prediction and head to head Kaia Kanepi vs. Harriet Dart

This will be the 2nd time that Kaia Kanepi and Harriet Dart fight against each other. The head to head is 1-0 for Kanepi (see full H2H stats), but they have never played each other on hard.

The last time that they squared off, Kanepi won 6-4 6-4 in the final in the Cotentin back in 2020.

Kaia Kanepi

Kaia Kanepi

0 - 0win/loss

Rank
578
High
15
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2024 0-3 0-1 0-2 0-0 0-0 0-0
2023 17-22 6-10 11-9 0-2 0-1 0-0
2022 29-19 15-11 10-4 3-1 1-3 0-0
2021 23-14 16-8 6-4 1-1 0-1 0-0
2020 17-5 1-3 6-1 10-1 0-0 0-0

Ranked no. 63, Kanepi reached the 3rd round after defeating Robin Montgomery 6-3 6-3 and Belinda Bencic 6-4 6-3.

In the 2nd round, The Estonian had a good straight sets win against Bencic (6-4 6-3). During the match, Kanepi scored 67 points vs Bencic’s 51. The Estonian was exceptionally aggressive to blast 24 winners.

Talking about the service games, Kanepi struck 5 aces and she committed only 3 double faults. Overall, Kaia Kanepi was very efficient on serve to win 75% (24/32) of her 1st serve and 57% (16/28) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent her to concede the serve twice. Kaia broke Bencic 4 times after converting 50% of her break points (4/8).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Estonian hasn’t lost yet a set in this event to win 58% of the points she played.

Kanepi has a solid match record in the last 10 years having won 66% of her matches (211-110). 7-2 on hard in 2022. In connection with her performance on the same surface of this tournament, Kanepi has a composed 88-51 match record in the last years on hard.

The Estonian has a compiled 7-2 win-loss record in 2022, 7-2 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Indian Wells

Indian Wells
Kanepi's Record

Harriet Dart

Harriet Dart

0 - 0win/loss

Rank
179
High
70
WWWWWLWWWL
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 24-22 14-11 0-5 9-2 1-4 0-0
2024 26-27 12-12 3-7 5-3 6-5 0-0
2023 42-32 27-19 1-3 6-5 8-5 0-0
2022 29-29 17-15 1-5 4-4 7-5 0-0
2021 27-23 17-12 8-4 1-3 1-4 0-0

Ranked no. 122, Dart got to the 3rd round after beating Thiago Moura Monteiro 6-3 ret., Lesley Pattinama Kerkhove 6-1 7-5, Anastasia Gasanova 6-2 3-6 6-3, Ana Konjuh 6-1 3-1 ret. and Elina Svitolina 2-6 6-3 6-3.

In the 2nd round against Svitolina, Harriet recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (2-6 6-3 6-3). During the match Dart scored 100 points vs Svitolina’s 90. Harriet was extremely aggressive to blast 21 winners.

Talking about serving, Dart scored just 1 ace during the entire match and she committed only 4 double faults. Harriet Dart lost the serve 7 times and she saved 7 break points. Furthermore, Dart put 46% of her first serves in, winning 54% (21/39) of the points behind her 1st serve and 47% (21/45) on the 2nd serve. Dart broke Svitolina 8 times after converting 38% of her break points (8/21).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Brit started her run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, she has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 55% of the points she played.

The Brit has a composed 11-6 win-loss record in 2022, 11-5 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Indian Wells

Dart has never competed in this tournament before.

Indian Wells
Dart's Record

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

K.Kanepi
H.Dart
2h:32
2h:32
Time on court​
!
6h:33
6h:33
1h:21
1h:21
Last match​
!
2h:17
2h:17
2
2
Match played
!
4
4
37
37
Games Played​
82
82
4
4
Set played​​
11
11
131
131
Total points​
300
300
65.5
65.5
Avg point​
75
75
46
46
Winners
68
68
23
23
Avg Winners​
17
17
35%
35%
Ratio winners
23%
23%
-- Serve --
6
6
Aces
11
11
3
3
Avg Aces
2.8
2.8
13
13
Double Faults
12
12
!
6.5
6.5
Avg Double Faults
3
3
46/62
46/62
1st won total​
68/118
68/118
!
74%
74%
1st won %
58%
58%
29/60
29/60
2nd won total​
72/136
72/136
48%
48%
2nd won %
53%
53%
-- Break Points --
10/16
10/16
BP won
26/50
26/50
5/8
5/8
Avg BP won
6.5/12.5
6.5/12.5
!
63%
63%
Won
!
52%
52%
12
12
Conceded
30
30
6
6
Avg Conceded
7.5
7.5
5
5
Broken
16
16
2.5
2.5
Avg Broken
4
4
7
7
Saved
14
14

Matches, sets, games and points

Points Kanepi Dart
Match played 2 4
Tot Set 4 11
Tot Games 37 82
Pts 131-96 300-239
Total Points 227 539
Winners 46 68
%Winners 35% 23%

Kanepi played 2 matches while Dart competed in 4 matches. Dart started her run from the qualifications while Kanepi had a direct access to the main draw. At the moment, Harriet Dart lost 2 sets while Kaia Kanepi hasn’t conceded a set so far. Kanepi has played 7 set(s) less than Dart (4 vs 11). Therefore, Kanepi played 45 games less than Dart. Kanepi scored 46 winners (35% of the total points). On the other side, The Brit bagged 68 winners (23%).

Serve Performance

Serve Kanepi Dart
Aces 6 11
Avg per match 3 2.8
1st in 62/122 118/254
%1st in 51% 46%
1st pts 46/62 68/118
%1st pts 74% 58%
2nd pts 29/60 72/136
%2nd pts 48% 53%

Kanepi fired 6 aces (3 per match). Dart bagged 11 aces (2.8 per match). Kanepi won 74% points behind her first serve. She extremely effective on her second serve to win 48% of the points. On the other side, Dart won 58% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 53% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks Kanepi Dart
Won 10 26
Converted 10/16 26/50
% Converted 63% 52%
Conceded 12 30
Saved 7 14
% Saved 58% 47%
Times Broken 5 16

Kaia broke her opponents 10 times with a 63% conversion rate. Kanepi dropped her serve 5 times and she saved 58% of the break points that she conceded. The Brit broke her opponents 26 times with a 52% conversion rate. Dart conceded her serve 16 times and she saved 47% of the break points that she conceded.

Kanepi
R1
Montgomery
R2
Bencic
Total
Score 6-3 6-3 6-4 6-3
Tot Set 2 2 4
Tot Games 18 19 37
pts 64-45 67-51 131-96
Total points 109 118 227
Winners 22 24 46
%Winners 34% 36% 35%
SERVE
Aces 1 5 6
Double Faults 10 3 13
1st in 30/62 32/60 62/122
% 1st in 48% 53% 51%
1st pts 22/30 24/32 46/62
% 1st pts 73% 75% 74%
2nd pts 13/32 16/28 29/60
% 2nd pts 41% 57% 48%
Breaks
Won 6 4 10
Converted 6/8 4/8 10/16
Converted % 75% 50% 63%
Conceded 8 4 12
Saved 5/8 2/4 7
Saved % 63% 50% 57%
Times Broken 3 2 5
Dart
Q1
Kerkhove
Q3
Gasanova
R1
Lajovic
R1
Konjuh
R1
Lajovic
R2
Velkovska
R2
Svitolina
R2
Velkovska
Total
Score 6-1 7-5 6-2 3-6 6-3 6-3 ret. 6-1 3-1 ret. 6-3 ret. 3-6 6-4 6-3 2-6 6-3 6-3 3-6 6-4 6-3
Tot Set 2 3 1 2 1 3 3 3 18
Tot Games 19 26 9 11 9 28 26 28 156
pts 75-55 79-66 46-28 100-90 300-239
Total points 130 145 0 74 0 0 190 0 539
Winners 17 15 15 21 68
%Winners 23% 19% 0% 33% 0% 0% 21% 0% 23%
SERVE
Aces 5 3 0 2 0 0 1 0 11
Double Faults 2 5 1 4 12
1st in 28/54 30/70 / 21/46 / / 39/84 / 118/254
% 1st in 52% 43% 0% 46% 0% 0% 46% 0% 46%
1st pts 17/28 15/30 / 15/21 / / 21/39 / 68/118
% 1st pts 61% 50% 0% 71% 0% 0% 54% 0% 58%
2nd pts 13/26 22/40 / 16/25 / / 21/45 / 72/136
% 2nd pts 50% 55% 0% 64% 0% 0% 47% 0% 53%
Breaks
Won 8 7 3 8 26
Converted 8/15 7/9 / 3/5 / / 8/21 / 26/50
Converted % 53% 78% 0% 60% 0% 0% 38% 0% 52%
Conceded 9 5 2 14 30
Saved 5/9 0/5 0/ 2/2 0/ 0/ 7/14 0/ 14
Saved % 56% 0% 100% 50% 103%
Times Broken 4 5 0 7 16

Tennis Scores in Indian Wells

Upcoming matches in the draw