Daniil Medvedev and Rafael Nadal will clash against each other in the final of the Australian Open for the 5^th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Sunday at 7:30 pm on Rod Laver Arena. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Daniil Medvedev who should win in 4 sets.

As per the initial odds, Daniil Medvedev is the pick to win this match.
Daniil Medvedev -> 1.52
Rafael Nadal -> 2.76

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Prediction and head to head Daniil Medvedev vs. Rafael Nadal

This will be the 5^th time that Daniil Medvedev and Rafael Nadal fight against each other. The head to head is 3-1 for Nadal (see full H2H stats), 2-0 on hard.

The last time that they played, Medvedev won 3-6 7-6(4) 6-3

in the semifinal in Nitto atp finals back in 2020.

Highlights Daniil Medvedev vs Rafael Nadal – Nitto atp finals 21-November-2020

Daniil Medvedev

Ranked no. 2 (career-high), Medvedev reached the final after defeating Henri Laaksonen 6-1 6-4 7-6³, Nick Kyrgios 7-6¹ 6-4 4-6 6-2, Botic Van De Zandschulp 6-4 6-4 6-2, Maxime Cressy 6-2 7-6⁴ 6-7⁴ 7-5, Felix Auger Aliassime 6-7⁴ 3-6 7-6² 7-5 6-4 and Stefanos Tsitsipas 7-6⁵ 4-6 6-4 6-1.

In the semifinal, Daniil defeated Tsitsipas (7-6⁵ 4-6 6-4 6-1). During the match, Medvedev scored 123 points vs Tsitsipas’s 97. The Russian was extremely aggressive to blast 61 winners.

Talking about the service games, Medvedev blasted 13 aces and he committed only 4 double faults. Overall, Daniil Medvedev was pretty efficient on serve to win 86% (61/71) of his 1st serve and 72% (21/29) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve twice. Medvedev broke Tsitsipas 4 times after converting 33% of his break points (4/12).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Daniil has lost 5 set in this event to win 54% of the points he played.

Medvedev has a good win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 71% of his matches (388-162). 9-1 on hard in 2022. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this competition, Medvedev has an aggregate 164-55 record in the last years on hard.

Daniil’s best result of the current year was getting to the semifinal at the Australian Open .

The Russian has an overall 9-1 win-loss record in 2022, 9-1 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the Australian Open

Rafael Nadal

Ranked no. 5, Rafael reached the final after defeating Marcos Giron 6-1 6-4 6-2, Yannick Hanfmann 6-2 6-3 6-4, Karen Khachanov 6-3 6-2 3-6 6-1, Adrian Mannarino 7-6¹⁴ 6-2 6-2, Denis Shapovalov 6-3 6-4 4-6 3-6 6-3 and Matteo Berrettini 6-3 6-2 3-6 6-3.

In the semifinal, Nadal had a good straight sets win against Berrettini (6-3 6-2 3-6 6-3). During the match Nadal scored 108 points vs Berrettini’s 96. Rafael was exceptionally aggressive to blast 51 winners.

Talking about serving, Nadal blasted 5 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Overall, Rafael Nadal was extremely effective on serve to win 73% (51/70) of his 1st serve and 63% (20/32) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Rafael broke Berrettini 4 times after converting 50% of his break points (4/8).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Rafael has conceded 4 set in the tournament to win 56% of the points he played.

His best result of the year was winning the title in in Melbourne where he overcame Maxime Cressy in the final 7-6(6) 6-3.

Rafael has an aggregate 9-0 win-loss record in 2022, 9-0 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the Australian Open

Previously, he won this tournament once in 2009. See his history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Medvedev	Nadal
Match played	6	6
Tot Set	23	22
Tot Games	242	196
Pts	798-681	674-539
Total Points	1479	1213
Winners	388	305
%Winners	49%	45%

Both Medvedev and Nadal played 6 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Daniil Medvedev surrendered 5 sets, while Rafael Nadal lost 4 sets. Medvedev has played 1 set more than Nadal (23 vs 22). Therefore, Medvedev played 46 games more than Nadal. The Russian scored 388 winners (49% of the total points). On the other side, The Spaniard recorded 305 winners (45%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Medvedev	Nadal
Aces	94	41
Avg per match	15.7	6.8
1st in	478/722	381/591
%1st in	66%	64%
1st pts	388/478	305/381
%1st pts	81%	80%
2nd pts	139/244	121/210
%2nd pts	57%	58%

Medvedev struck 94 aces (15.7 per match). Nadal managed to score 41 aces (6.8 per match). Medvedev won 81% points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 57% of the points. On the other side, Nadal won 80% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 58% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Medvedev	Nadal
Won	22	26
Converted	22/57	26/72
% Converted	39%	36%
Conceded	33	21
Saved	26	16
% Saved	79%	76%
Times Broken	7	5

The Russian broke his opponents 22 times with a 39% conversion rate. Medvedev lost his serve 7 times and he saved 79% of the break points that he conceded. The Spaniard broke his opponents 26 times with a 36% conversion rate. Nadal conceded his serve 5 times and he saved 76% of the break points that he conceded.

Medvedev
	R1 Laaksonen	R2 Kyrgios	R3 Van De Zandschulp	R4 Cressy	1/4 Auger-Aliassime	1/2 Tsitsipas	Total
Score	6-1 6-4 7-63	7-61 6-4 4-6 6-2	6-4 6-4 6-2	6-2 7-64 6-74 7-5	6-74 3-6 7-62 7-5 6-4	7-65 4-6 6-4 6-1
Tot Set	3	4	3	4	5	4	23
Tot Games	30	41	28	46	57	40	242
pts	107-75	134-113	96-76	156-138	182-182	123-97	798-681
Total points	182	247	172	294	364	220	1479
Winners	48	67	47	71	94	61	388
%Winners	45%	50%	49%	46%	52%	50%	49%
SERVE
Aces	10	31	10	15	15	13	94
Double Faults	3	5	6	6	9	4	33
1st in	61/92	79/119	57/86	84/129	126/196	71/100	478/722
% 1st in	66%	66%	66%	65%	64%	71%	66%
1st pts	48/61	67/79	47/57	71/84	94/126	61/71	388/478
% 1st pts	79%	85%	82%	85%	75%	86%	81%
2nd pts	18/31	20/40	15/29	29/45	36/70	21/29	139/244
% 2nd pts	58%	50%	52%	64%	51%	72%	57%
Breaks
Won	4	4	4	3	3	4	22
Converted	4/6	4/11	4/11	3/12	3/5	4/12	22/57
Converted %	67%	36%	36%	25%	60%	33%	39%
Conceded	5	9	3	1	11	4	33
Saved	4/5	7/9	3/3	1/1	9/11	2/4	26
Saved %	80%	78%	100%	100%	82%	50%	82%
Times Broken	1	2	0	0	2	2	7

Nadal
	R1 Giron	R2 Hanfmann	R3 Khachanov	R4 Mannarino	1/4 Shapovalov	1/2 Berrettini	Total
Score	6-1 6-4 6-2	6-2 6-3 6-4	6-3 6-2 3-6 6-1	7-614 6-2 6-2	6-3 6-4 4-6 3-6 6-3	6-3 6-2 3-6 6-3
Tot Set	3	3	4	3	5	4	22
Tot Games	25	27	33	29	47	35	196
pts	91-55	102-79	118-89	107-85	148-135	108-96	674-539
Total points	146	181	207	192	283	204	1213
Winners	43	35	55	42	79	51	305
%Winners	47%	34%	47%	39%	53%	47%	45%
SERVE
Aces	7	1	4	16	8	5	41
Double Faults	2	5	6	6	11	2	32
1st in	51/72	46/85	66/98	48/88	100/146	70/102	381/591
% 1st in	71%	54%	67%	55%	68%	69%	64%
1st pts	43/51	35/46	55/66	42/48	79/100	51/70	305/381
% 1st pts	84%	76%	83%	88%	79%	73%	80%
2nd pts	13/21	25/39	18/32	24/40	21/46	20/32	121/210
% 2nd pts	62%	64%	56%	60%	46%	63%	58%
Breaks
Won	5	4	5	5	3	4	26
Converted	5/9	4/16	5/15	5/17	3/7	4/8	26/72
Converted %	56%	25%	33%	29%	43%	50%	36%
Conceded	2	2	5	2	8	2	21
Saved	2/2	2/2	4/5	1/2	6/8	1/2	16
Saved %	100%	100%	80%	50%	75%	50%	76%
Times Broken	0	0	1	1	2	1	5

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Rafael NadalNadal – Daniil MedvedevMedvedev (3-1) – H2H and prediction