Daniil Medvedev and Rafael Nadal will clash against each other in the final of the Australian Open for the 5th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Sunday at 7:30 pm on Rod Laver Arena. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Daniil Medvedev who should win in 4 sets.
As per the initial odds, Daniil Medvedev is the pick to win this match.
Daniil Medvedev -> 1.52
Rafael Nadal -> 2.76
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Prediction and head to head Daniil Medvedev vs. Rafael Nadal
This will be the 5th time that Daniil Medvedev and Rafael Nadal fight against each other. The head to head is 3-1 for Nadal (see full H2H stats), 2-0 on hard.
The last time that they played, Medvedev won 3-6 7-6(4) 6-3 in the semifinal in Nitto atp finals back in 2020.
Highlights Daniil Medvedev vs Rafael Nadal – Nitto atp finals 21-November-2020
Daniil Medvedev
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 46-21 | 28-9 | 11-5 | 1-5 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 66-18 | 38-8 | 10-3 | 11-4 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 45-19 | 26-8 | 3-2 | 8-6 | 8-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 63-13 | 33-5 | 5-3 | 18-3 | 7-2 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 28-10 | 14-4 | 0-2 | 14-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 2 (career-high), Medvedev reached the final after defeating Henri Laaksonen 6-1 6-4 7-63, Nick Kyrgios 7-61 6-4 4-6 6-2, Botic Van De Zandschulp 6-4 6-4 6-2, Maxime Cressy 6-2 7-64 6-74 7-5, Felix Auger Aliassime 6-74 3-6 7-62 7-5 6-4 and Stefanos Tsitsipas 7-65 4-6 6-4 6-1.
In the semifinal, Daniil defeated Tsitsipas (7-65 4-6 6-4 6-1). During the match, Medvedev scored 123 points vs Tsitsipas’s 97. The Russian was extremely aggressive to blast 61 winners.
Talking about the service games, Medvedev blasted 13 aces and he committed only 4 double faults. Overall, Daniil Medvedev was pretty efficient on serve to win 86% (61/71) of his 1st serve and 72% (21/29) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve twice. Medvedev broke Tsitsipas 4 times after converting 33% of his break points (4/12).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Daniil has lost 5 set in this event to win 54% of the points he played.
Medvedev has a good win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 71% of his matches (388-162). 9-1 on hard in 2022. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this competition, Medvedev has an aggregate 164-55 record in the last years on hard.
Daniil’s best result of the current year was getting to the semifinal at the Australian Open .
The Russian has an overall 9-1 win-loss record in 2022, 9-1 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the Australian Open
Rafael Nadal
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 12-8 | 2-1 | 10-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 39-8 | 23-3 | 10-2 | 1-3 | 5-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 24-5 | 5-2 | 19-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 27-7 | 13-3 | 9-1 | 5-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 5, Rafael reached the final after defeating Marcos Giron 6-1 6-4 6-2, Yannick Hanfmann 6-2 6-3 6-4, Karen Khachanov 6-3 6-2 3-6 6-1, Adrian Mannarino 7-614 6-2 6-2, Denis Shapovalov 6-3 6-4 4-6 3-6 6-3 and Matteo Berrettini 6-3 6-2 3-6 6-3.
In the semifinal, Nadal had a good straight sets win against Berrettini (6-3 6-2 3-6 6-3). During the match Nadal scored 108 points vs Berrettini’s 96. Rafael was exceptionally aggressive to blast 51 winners.
Talking about serving, Nadal blasted 5 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Overall, Rafael Nadal was extremely effective on serve to win 73% (51/70) of his 1st serve and 63% (20/32) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Rafael broke Berrettini 4 times after converting 50% of his break points (4/8).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Rafael has conceded 4 set in the tournament to win 56% of the points he played.
His best result of the year was winning the title in in Melbourne where he overcame Maxime Cressy in the final 7-6(6) 6-3.
Rafael has an aggregate 9-0 win-loss record in 2022, 9-0 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the Australian Open
Previously, he won this tournament once in 2009. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Medvedev | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 6 | 6 |
| Tot Set | 23 | 22 |
| Tot Games | 242 | 196 |
| Pts | 798-681 | 674-539 |
| Total Points | 1479 | 1213 |
| Winners | 388 | 305 |
| %Winners | 49% | 45% |
Both Medvedev and Nadal played 6 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Daniil Medvedev surrendered 5 sets, while Rafael Nadal lost 4 sets. Medvedev has played 1 set more than Nadal (23 vs 22). Therefore, Medvedev played 46 games more than Nadal. The Russian scored 388 winners (49% of the total points). On the other side, The Spaniard recorded 305 winners (45%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Medvedev | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 94 | 41 |
| Avg per match | 15.7 | 6.8 |
| 1st in | 478/722 | 381/591 |
| %1st in | 66% | 64% |
| 1st pts | 388/478 | 305/381 |
| %1st pts | 81% | 80% |
| 2nd pts | 139/244 | 121/210 |
| %2nd pts | 57% | 58% |
Medvedev struck 94 aces (15.7 per match). Nadal managed to score 41 aces (6.8 per match). Medvedev won 81% points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 57% of the points. On the other side, Nadal won 80% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 58% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Medvedev | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 22 | 26 |
| Converted | 22/57 | 26/72 |
| % Converted | 39% | 36% |
| Conceded | 33 | 21 |
| Saved | 26 | 16 |
| % Saved | 79% | 76% |
| Times Broken | 7 | 5 |
The Russian broke his opponents 22 times with a 39% conversion rate. Medvedev lost his serve 7 times and he saved 79% of the break points that he conceded. The Spaniard broke his opponents 26 times with a 36% conversion rate. Nadal conceded his serve 5 times and he saved 76% of the break points that he conceded.
| Medvedev | ||||||||
| R1 Laaksonen |
R2 Kyrgios |
R3 Van De Zandschulp |
R4 Cressy |
1/4 Auger-Aliassime |
1/2 Tsitsipas |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-1 6-4 7-63 | 7-61 6-4 4-6 6-2 | 6-4 6-4 6-2 | 6-2 7-64 6-74 7-5 | 6-74 3-6 7-62 7-5 6-4 | 7-65 4-6 6-4 6-1 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 23 | |
| Tot Games | 30 | 41 | 28 | 46 | 57 | 40 | 242 | |
| pts | 107-75 | 134-113 | 96-76 | 156-138 | 182-182 | 123-97 | 798-681 | |
| Total points | 182 | 247 | 172 | 294 | 364 | 220 | 1479 | |
| Winners | 48 | 67 | 47 | 71 | 94 | 61 | 388 | |
| %Winners | 45% | 50% | 49% | 46% | 52% | 50% | 49% | |
| SERVE | ||||||||
| Aces | 10 | 31 | 10 | 15 | 15 | 13 | 94 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 4 | 33 | |
| 1st in | 61/92 | 79/119 | 57/86 | 84/129 | 126/196 | 71/100 | 478/722 | |
| % 1st in | 66% | 66% | 66% | 65% | 64% | 71% | 66% | |
| 1st pts | 48/61 | 67/79 | 47/57 | 71/84 | 94/126 | 61/71 | 388/478 | |
| % 1st pts | 79% | 85% | 82% | 85% | 75% | 86% | 81% | |
| 2nd pts | 18/31 | 20/40 | 15/29 | 29/45 | 36/70 | 21/29 | 139/244 | |
| % 2nd pts | 58% | 50% | 52% | 64% | 51% | 72% | 57% | |
| Breaks | ||||||||
| Won | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 22 | |
| Converted | 4/6 | 4/11 | 4/11 | 3/12 | 3/5 | 4/12 | 22/57 | |
| Converted % | 67% | 36% | 36% | 25% | 60% | 33% | 39% | |
| Conceded | 5 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 4 | 33 | |
| Saved | 4/5 | 7/9 | 3/3 | 1/1 | 9/11 | 2/4 | 26 | |
| Saved % | 80% | 78% | 100% | 100% | 82% | 50% | 82% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 7 | |
| Nadal | ||||||||
| R1 Giron |
R2 Hanfmann |
R3 Khachanov |
R4 Mannarino |
1/4 Shapovalov |
1/2 Berrettini |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-1 6-4 6-2 | 6-2 6-3 6-4 | 6-3 6-2 3-6 6-1 | 7-614 6-2 6-2 | 6-3 6-4 4-6 3-6 6-3 | 6-3 6-2 3-6 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 22 | |
| Tot Games | 25 | 27 | 33 | 29 | 47 | 35 | 196 | |
| pts | 91-55 | 102-79 | 118-89 | 107-85 | 148-135 | 108-96 | 674-539 | |
| Total points | 146 | 181 | 207 | 192 | 283 | 204 | 1213 | |
| Winners | 43 | 35 | 55 | 42 | 79 | 51 | 305 | |
| %Winners | 47% | 34% | 47% | 39% | 53% | 47% | 45% | |
| SERVE | ||||||||
| Aces | 7 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 8 | 5 | 41 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 11 | 2 | 32 | |
| 1st in | 51/72 | 46/85 | 66/98 | 48/88 | 100/146 | 70/102 | 381/591 | |
| % 1st in | 71% | 54% | 67% | 55% | 68% | 69% | 64% | |
| 1st pts | 43/51 | 35/46 | 55/66 | 42/48 | 79/100 | 51/70 | 305/381 | |
| % 1st pts | 84% | 76% | 83% | 88% | 79% | 73% | 80% | |
| 2nd pts | 13/21 | 25/39 | 18/32 | 24/40 | 21/46 | 20/32 | 121/210 | |
| % 2nd pts | 62% | 64% | 56% | 60% | 46% | 63% | 58% | |
| Breaks | ||||||||
| Won | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 26 | |
| Converted | 5/9 | 4/16 | 5/15 | 5/17 | 3/7 | 4/8 | 26/72 | |
| Converted % | 56% | 25% | 33% | 29% | 43% | 50% | 36% | |
| Conceded | 2 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 21 | |
| Saved | 2/2 | 2/2 | 4/5 | 1/2 | 6/8 | 1/2 | 16 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 100% | 80% | 50% | 75% | 50% | 76% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | |
Head 2 Head
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