Matteo Berrettini and Pablo Carreno-Busta will play each other in the 4^th round of the Australian Open for the 1^st time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Sunday at 9:00 pm on Rod Laver Arena. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Matteo Berrettini who should win in 5 sets.

As per the initial odds, Matteo Berrettini is the pick to win this match.
Matteo Berrettini -> 1.53
Pablo Carreno-Busta -> 2.65

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Prediction and head to head Matteo Berrettini vs. Pablo Carreno-Busta

There is no head to head record between Matteo Berrettini and Pablo Carreno-Busta since this will be the first time that they will fight against each other in the main tour.

Matteo Berrettini

Matteo Berrettini

0 - 0win/loss

Rank
30

High
6

LWLWWLWWWL

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Year	Total	Hard	Clay	I.hard	Grass	Carpet
2025	12-9	9-6	3-2	0-1	0-0	0-0
2024	36-13	7-6	15-1	8-3	6-3	0-0
2023	14-12	9-10	2-0	0-0	3-2	0-0
2022	32-12	15-9	4-2	4-1	9-0	0-0
2021	41-12	14-5	13-4	3-2	11-1	0-0

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Ranked no. 7 (career-high), the Italian reached the 4^th round after beating Brandon Nakashima 4-6 6-2 7-6⁵ 6-3, Stefan Kozlov 6-1 4-6 6-4 6-1 and Carlos Alcaraz Garfia 6-2 7-6³ 4-6 2-6 7-6⁵.

In the 3^rd round, Berrettini had a tough win against Alcaraz Garfia to overcome his opponent only in 5 sets (6-2 7-6³ 4-6 2-6 7-6⁵). During the match, Berrettini and Alcaraz Garfia scored the same amount of points (159). However, the world no. 7 was stronger during the important points and that was the most significant difference in the match. Matteo was very aggressive to blast 90 winners.

Talking about the service games, Berrettini made 10 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Matteo Berrettini lost the serve 4 times and he saved 9 break points. Furthermore, Berrettini put 71% of his first serves in, winning 78% (90/115) of the points behind his 1st serve and 44% (21/48) on the 2nd serve. Matteo broke Alcaraz Garfia 3 times after converting 38% of his break points (3/8).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Matteo started his run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, he has dropped 4 set in this tournament to conquer 53% of the points he played.

Berrettini has a solid win-loss record in the last 9 years having won 67% of his matches (252-126). 4-2 on hard in 2022. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this event, Berrettini has an aggregate110-52 win-loss record in the last 9 years on hard.

Berrettini has an aggregate 4-2 win-loss record in 2022, 4-2 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the Australian Open

Australian Open

Berrettini's Record

Pablo Carreno-Busta

Pablo Carreno-Busta

0 - 0win/loss

Rank
98

High
10

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Year	Total	Hard	Clay	I.hard	Grass	Carpet
2025	20-14	13-5	6-8	1-1	0-0	0-0
2024	10-12	7-6	2-4	1-1	0-1	0-0
2023	2-5	2-4	0-0	0-1	0-0	0-0
2022	37-25	19-8	11-9	5-5	2-3	0-0
2021	38-18	14-8	17-4	5-4	2-2	0-0

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Ranked no. 21, Carreno-Busta got to the 4^th round after beating Tomas Martin Etcheverry 6-1 6-2 7-6², Tallon Griekspoor 6-3 6-7⁶ 7-6³ 3-6 6-4 and Sebastian Korda 6-4 7-5 6-7⁶ 6-3.

In the 3^rd round, Carreno-Busta had a good straight sets win against Korda (6-4 7-5 6-7⁶ 6-3). During the match Carreno-Busta scored 157 points vs Korda’s 141. Carreno-Busta was extremely aggressive to blast 68 winners.

About the serving games, Carreno-Busta made 10 aces and he committed only 6 double faults. Overall, Pablo Carreno-Busta was extremely effective on serve to win 72% (68/94) of his 1st serve and 58% (32/55) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve twice. Carreno-Busta broke Korda 6 times after converting 40% of his break points (6/15).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Carreno-Busta started his run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, he has conceded 3 set in the tournament to win 53% of the points he played.

Pablo has an aggregate 7-1 win-loss record in 2022, 7-1 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the Australian Open

Previously, his best result was reaching the 4^th round in 2018 and 2019. See his history.

Australian Open

Carreno-Busta's Record

H2H Performance in the tournament

Matches, sets, games and points

Both Berrettini and Carreno-Busta played 3 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Matteo Berrettini conceded 4 sets, while Pablo Carreno-Busta lost 3 sets. Berrettini has played 1 set more than Carreno-Busta (13 vs 12). However, it is interesting to notice that they played the same amount of games (126). Matteo scored 202 winners (49% of the total points). On the other side, The Spaniard recorded 191 winners (44%).

Serve Performance

Berrettini made 52 aces (17.3 per match). Carreno-Busta struck 28 aces (9.3 per match). Berrettini won 77% points on his first serve. He extremely effective on his second serve to win 53% of the points. On the other side, Carreno-Busta won 73% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 54% of the points.

How they played the important points

Berrettini broke his opponents 12 times with a 34% conversion rate. Berrettini surrendered his serve 6 times and he saved 78% of the break points that he conceded. The Spaniard broke his opponents 18 times with a 45% conversion rate. The Spaniard conceded his serve 9 times and he saved 70% of the break points that he conceded.

Head 2 Head

• 0Slam
• 10Main
• 3Chall
• 2Minor

• 0Slam
• 7Main
• 13Chall
• 12Minor

Matteo
Berrettini

1:1

Pablo
Carreno-Busta

Rank

30

High

6

1Hard1

Rank

98

High

10

Win Loss

Berrettini

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Carreno-Busta

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2025 2024 2023

12 - 9

20 - 14

9-6

Hard

13-5

0-1

I Hard

1-1

3-2

Clay

6-8

Tennis Scores – Australian Open

• Rafael NadalNadal – Karen KhachanovKhachanov (6-3 6-2 3-6 6-1) – See score progression
• Pablo Carreno-BustaCarreno-Busta – Sebastian KordaKorda (6-4 7-5 6-7⁶ 6-3) – See score progression
• Adrian MannarinoMannarino – Aslan KaratsevKaratsev (7-6⁴ 6-7⁴ 7-5 6-4) – See score progression
• Matteo BerrettiniBerrettini – Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia (6-2 7-6³ 4-6 2-6 7-6⁵) – See score progression
• Denis ShapovalovShapovalov – Reilly OpelkaOpelka (7-6⁴ 4-6 6-3 6-4) – See score progression
• Gael MonfilsMonfils – Cristian GarinGarin (7-6⁴ 6-1 6-3) – See score progression
• Miomir KecmanovicKecmanovic – Lorenzo SonegoSonego (6-4 6-7⁸ 6-2 7-5) – See score progression
• Alexander ZverevZverev – Radu AlbotAlbot (6-3 6-4 6-4) – See score progression

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Pablo AndujarAndujar – Alex De MinaurDe Minaur (1-0) – H2H and prediction
• Taro DanielDaniel – Jannik SinnerSinner (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Roberto Bautista AgutBautista Agut – Taylor Harry FritzHarry Fritz (5-1) – H2H and prediction
• Benoit PairePaire – Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas (1-3) – H2H and prediction
• Andrey RublevRublev – Marin CilicCilic (4-1) – H2H and prediction
• Daniel EvansEvans – Felix Auger AliassimeAuger Aliassime (1-0) – H2H and prediction
• Christopher O ConnellO Connell – Maxime CressyCressy (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Botic Van De ZandschulpVan De Zandschulp – Daniil MedvedevMedvedev (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Miomir KecmanovicKecmanovic – Gael MonfilsMonfils (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Pablo Carreno-BustaCarreno-Busta – Matteo BerrettiniBerrettini (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Alexander ZverevZverev – Denis ShapovalovShapovalov (4-2) – H2H and prediction
• Adrian MannarinoMannarino – Rafael NadalNadal (0-2) – H2H and prediction

Berrettini

More Stats

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Carreno-Busta