Paula Badosa Gibert and Madison Keys will play each other in the 4th round of the Australian Open for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Sunday at 11:00 am on Rod Laver Arena. Here the head to head stats and relative prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Paula Badosa Gibert who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Paula Badosa Gibert is the pick to win this match.
Paula Badosa Gibert -> 1.56
Madison Keys -> 2.56

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Prediction and head to head Paula Badosa Gibert vs. Madison Keys

There is no head to head record between Paula Badosa Gibert and Madison Keys since this will be the first time that they will fight against each other in the main tour.

Paula Badosa Gibert

Paula Badosa Gibert

0 - 0win/loss

Rank
25
High
2
LWLLLWWLWW
See allSTATS
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 18-13 13-8 3-2 0-1 2-2 0-0
2024 37-19 26-11 6-5 0-1 5-2 0-0
2023 18-9 6-4 11-4 0-0 1-1 0-0
2022 32-22 20-13 8-5 1-2 3-2 0-0
2021 43-17 19-9 17-3 4-3 3-2 0-0
See all years

Ranked no. 6 (career-high), Paula got to the 4th round after beating Ajla Tomljanovic 6-4 6-0, Martina Trevisan 6-0 6-3 and Marta Kostyuk 6-2 5-7 6-4.

In the 3rd round, Paula defeated Kostyuk (6-2 5-7 6-4). During the match, Badosa scored 104 points vs Kostyuk’s 92. The Spaniard was pretty aggressive to blast 40 winners.

Regarding the service games, Badosa bagged 4 aces and she committed only 9 double faults. Paula Badosa Gibert lost the serve 5 times and she saved 10 break points. Furthermore, Badosa put 57% of her first serves in, winning 65% (40/62) of the points behind her 1st serve and 45% (21/47) on the 2nd serve. Badosa broke Kostyuk 7 times after converting 70% of her break points (7/10).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Badosa started her run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, she has surrendered 1 set in this event to win 57% of the points she played.

Badosa has a solid record in the last 10 years having won 66% of her matches (288-151). 8-1 on hard in 2022. Regarding her performance on the same surface of this event, Badosa has a composed 106-53 match record in the last years on hard.

Her best result of the season was winning the title in in Sydney where she beat Barbora Krejcikova in the final 6-3 4-6 7-6(4).

Badosa has a composed 8-1 win-loss record in 2022, 8-1 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the Australian Open

Australian Open
Badosa's Record

Madison Keys

Madison Keys

0 - 0win/loss

Rank
7
High
5
LLLLWWLWWW
See allSTATS
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 37-15 24-6 9-4 0-2 4-3 0-0
2024 24-12 7-6 13-4 0-0 4-2 0-0
2023 33-15 19-9 5-3 0-2 9-1 0-0
2022 30-20 25-12 4-4 0-3 1-1 0-0
2021 11-15 3-9 3-4 0-0 5-2 0-0
See all years

Ranked no. 51, the American reached the 4th round after defeating Sofia Kenin 7-62 7-5, Jaqueline Cristian 6-2 7-5 and Qiang Wang 4-6 6-3 7-62.

In the 3rd round against Wang, Madison recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (4-6 6-3 7-62). During the match Keys scored 118 points vs Wang’s 101. The American was quite aggressive to blast 42 winners.

Talking about serving, Keys bagged 3 aces and she committed only 6 double faults. Madison Keys lost the serve 6 times and she saved 3 break points. Furthermore, Keys put 61% of her first serves in, winning 62% (42/68) of the points behind her 1st serve and 56% (24/43) on the 2nd serve. Keys broke Wang 6 times after converting 50% of her break points (6/12).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Keys started her run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, she has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 55% of the points she played.

Her best result of the current season was winning the title in in Adelaide where she defeated Alison Riske in the final 6-1 6-2.

Madison has an aggregate 9-1 win-loss record in 2022, 9-1 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the Australian Open

Previously, her best result was reaching the semifinal in 2015. See her history.

Australian Open
Keys's Record

H2H Performance in the tournament

P.Badosa
M.Keys
4h:52
4h:52
Time on court​
5h:22
5h:22
!
2h:19
2h:19
Last match​
!
2h:21
2h:21
3
3
Match played
3
3
61
61
Games Played​
77
77
7
7
Set played​​
7
7
231
231
Total points​
281
281
77
77
Avg point​
93.7
93.7
81
81
Winners
115
115
27
27
Avg Winners​
38.3
38.3
35%
35%
Ratio winners
41%
41%
-- Serve --
16
16
Aces
21
21
5.3
5.3
Avg Aces
7
7
14
14
Double Faults
11
11
4.7
4.7
Avg Double Faults
3.7
3.7
81/117
81/117
1st won total​
115/165
115/165
69%
69%
1st won %
70%
70%
38/80
38/80
2nd won total​
49/92
49/92
48%
48%
2nd won %
53%
53%
-- Break Points --
19/34
19/34
BP won
13/28
13/28
6.3/11.3
6.3/11.3
Avg BP won
4.3/9.3
4.3/9.3
!
56%
56%
Won
46%
46%
20
20
Conceded
22
22
6.7
6.7
Avg Conceded
7.3
7.3
8
8
Broken
9
9
2.7
2.7
Avg Broken
3
3
12
12
Saved
13
13
See Allstats

Matches, sets, games and points

Points Badosa Keys
Match played 3 3
Tot Set 7 7
Tot Games 61 77
Pts 231-173 281-228
Total Points 404 509
Winners 81 115
%Winners 35% 41%

Both Badosa and Keys played 3 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Paula Badosa Gibert lost 1 set, while Madison Keys dropped 1 set. Talking about their workload, Badosa and Keys have played the same amount of sets 7. However, Badosa played 16 games less than Keys. The Spaniard scored 81 winners (35% of the total points). On the other side, Madison blasted 115 winners (41%).

Serve Performance

Serve Badosa Keys
Aces 16 21
Avg per match 5.3 7
1st in 117/197 165/257
%1st in 59% 64%
1st pts 81/117 115/165
%1st pts 69% 70%
2nd pts 38/80 49/92
%2nd pts 48% 53%

Badosa recorded 16 aces (5.3 per match). Keys blasted 21 aces (7 per match). Badosa won 69% points behind her first serve. She extremely effective on her second serve to win 48% of the points. On the other side, Keys won 70% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 53% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks Badosa Keys
Won 19 13
Converted 19/34 13/28
% Converted 56% 46%
Conceded 20 22
Saved 12 13
% Saved 60% 59%
Times Broken 8 9

Paula broke her opponents 19 times with a 56% conversion rate. Paula conceded her serve 8 times and she saved 60% of the break points that she conceded. The American broke her opponents 13 times with a 46% conversion rate. Madison conceded her serve 9 times and she saved 59% of the break points that she conceded.

Badosa
R1
Tomljanovic		 R2
Trevisan		 R3
Kostyuk		 Total
Score 6-4 6-0 6-0 6-3 6-2 5-7 6-4
Tot Set 2 2 3 7
Tot Games 16 15 30 61
pts 66-46 61-35 104-92 231-173
Total points 112 96 196 404
Winners 25 16 40 81
%Winners 38% 26% 38% 35%
SERVE
Aces 7 5 4 16
Double Faults 5 0 9 14
1st in 35/51 20/37 62/109 117/197
% 1st in 69% 54% 57% 59%
1st pts 25/35 16/20 40/62 81/117
% 1st pts 71% 80% 65% 69%
2nd pts 4/16 13/17 21/47 38/80
% 2nd pts 25% 76% 45% 48%
Breaks
Won 7 5 7 19
Converted 7/11 5/13 7/10 19/34
Converted % 64% 38% 70% 56%
Conceded 5 0 15 20
Saved 2/5 0/0 10/15 12
Saved % 40% – 67% 36%
Times Broken 3 0 5 8
Keys
R1
Kenin		 R2
Cristian		 R3
Wang		 Total
Score 7-62 7-5 6-2 7-5 4-6 6-3 7-62
Tot Set 2 2 3 7
Tot Games 25 20 32 77
pts 82-67 81-60 118-101 281-228
Total points 149 141 219 509
Winners 42 31 42 115
%Winners 51% 38% 36% 41%
SERVE
Aces 15 3 3 21
Double Faults 1 4 6 11
1st in 50/74 47/72 68/111 165/257
% 1st in 68% 65% 61% 64%
1st pts 42/50 31/47 42/68 115/165
% 1st pts 84% 66% 62% 70%
2nd pts 12/24 13/25 24/43 49/92
% 2nd pts 50% 52% 56% 53%
Breaks
Won 2 5 6 13
Converted 2/4 5/12 6/12 13/28
Converted % 50% 42% 50% 46%
Conceded 3 10 9 22
Saved 2/3 8/10 3/9 13
Saved % 67% 80% 33% 60%
Times Broken 1 2 6 9

Tennis Scores – Australian Open

Upcoming matches in the draw

Badosa
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Keys

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