Denis Shapovalov and Pablo Carreno-Busta will fight against each other in the final of the the ATP Cup for the 6^th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Sunday at 5:30 pm on EN ROSEWALL ARENA. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Pablo Carreno-Busta who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Pablo Carreno-Busta is the pick to win this match.
Pablo Carreno-Busta -> 1.89
Denis Shapovalov -> 1.99

Click here to see the updated quotes and live streaming (only selected countries - USA excluded).

To be able to watch live streaming bet365, a funded account is required or you need to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. 18+ BeGambleAware.

Here where top tennis events are broadcasted or streamed online (ATP, WTA).

At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.

 

Prediction and head to head Denis Shapovalov vs. Pablo Carreno-Busta

This will be the 6^th time that Denis Shapovalov and Pablo Carreno-Busta play each other. The head to head is 4-1 for Carreno-Busta (see full H2H stats), 3-0 on hard.

The last time that they played, Carreno-Busta won 3-6 7-6(5) 7-6(4) 0-6 6-3 in the quarter in at the U.S. Open back in 2020.

Highlights Pablo Carreno-Busta vs Denis Shapovalov – U.S. Open 08-September-2020

Denis Shapovalov

Ranked no. 14, Shapovalov got to the final after defeating Jan-Lennard Struff 7-6⁵ 4-6 6-3 and Roman Safiullin 6-4 5-7 6-4.

In the semifinal, Denis defeated Safiullin (6-4 5-7 6-4). During the match, Shapovalov scored 105 points vs Safiullin’s 100. Shapovalov was pretty aggressive to blast 51 winners.

Regarding the service games, Shapovalov made 13 aces and he committed only 8 double faults. Overall, Denis Shapovalov was exceptionally effective on serve to win 76% (51/67) of his 1st serve and 53% (20/38) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Denis broke Safiullin twice after converting 22% of his break points (2/9).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Denis started his run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, he has conceded 2 set in this tournament to conquer 52% of the points he played.

Shapovalov has a solid win-loss record in the last 8 years having won 62% of his matches (231-144). 2-1 on hard in 2022. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this event, Shapovalov has an overall98-62 match record in the last 8 years on hard.

Denis has a compiled 2-1 win-loss record in 2022, 2-1 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Pablo Carreno-Busta

Ranked no. 20, Carreno-Busta got to the final after defeating Alejandro Tabilo 6-4 7-6⁴, Viktor Durasovic 6-3 6-3, Filip Krajinovic 6-3 6-4 and Jan Zielinski 6-2 6-1.

In the semifinal, Carreno-Busta had a good straight sets win against Zielinski (6-2 6-1). During the match Carreno-Busta scored 53 points vs Zielinski’s 30. Carreno-Busta was exceptionally aggressive to blast 25 winners.

About the serving games, Carreno-Busta blasted 6 aces and he was exceptionally solid in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Pablo Carreno-Busta was very effective on serve to win 76% (25/33) of his 1st serve and 67% (8/12) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Pablo broke Zielinski 4 times after converting 50% of his break points (4/8).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Pablo started his run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, he hasn’t conceded yet a set in this event to win 57% of the points he played.

Carreno-Busta has an overall 4-0 win-loss record in 2022, 4-0 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously, his best result was reaching the semifinal in 2021. See his history.

H2H Performance in the tournament

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Shapovalov	Carreno-Busta
Match played	2	4
Tot Set	6	8
Tot Games	64	75
Pts	219-204	259-196
Total Points	423	455
Winners	111	116
%Winners	51%	45%

Shapovalov played 2 matches while Carreno-Busta competed in 4 matches. At the moment, Denis Shapovalov conceded 2 sets while Pablo Carreno-Busta hasn’t lost a set so far. Shapovalov has played 2 set(s) less than Carreno-Busta (6 vs 8). Therefore, Shapovalov played 11 games less than Carreno-Busta. Denis scored 111 winners (51% of the total points). On the other side, Carreno-Busta made 116 winners (45%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Shapovalov	Carreno-Busta
Aces	22	18
Avg per match	11	4.5
1st in	152/217	142/214
%1st in	70%	66%
1st pts	111/152	116/142
%1st pts	73%	82%
2nd pts	39/65	38/72
%2nd pts	60%	53%

Shapovalov scored 22 aces (11 per match). Carreno-Busta scored 18 aces (4.5 per match). Shapovalov won 73% points behind his first serve. He very solid his second serve to win 60% of the points. On the other side, Carreno-Busta won 82% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 53% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Shapovalov	Carreno-Busta
Won	3	14
Converted	3/13	14/32
% Converted	23%	44%
Conceded	14	8
Saved	12	4
% Saved	86%	50%
Times Broken	2	4

The Canadian broke his opponents 3 times with a 23% conversion rate. Denis lost his serve twice and he saved 86% of the break points that he conceded. The Spaniard broke his opponents 14 times with a 44% conversion rate. Pablo conceded his serve 4 times and he saved 50% of the break points that he conceded.

Shapovalov
	Round Robin Struff	Round Robin Evans	1/2 Safiullin	Total
Score	7-65 4-6 6-3	6-4 6-4	6-4 5-7 6-4
Tot Set	3	2	3	8
Tot Games	32	20	32	84
pts	114-104	–	105-100	219-204
Total points	218	0	205	423
Winners	60		51	111
%Winners	53%	0%	49%	51%
SERVE
Aces	9	0	13	22
Double Faults	2		8	10
1st in	85/112	/	67/105	152/217
% 1st in	76%	0%	64%	70%
1st pts	60/85	/	51/67	111/152
% 1st pts	71%	0%	76%	73%
2nd pts	19/27	/	20/38	39/65
% 2nd pts	70%	0%	53%	60%
Breaks
Won	1		2	3
Converted	1/4	/	2/9	3/13
Converted %	25%	0%	22%	23%
Conceded	6		8	14
Saved	5/6	0/	7/8	12
Saved %	83%	–	88%	57%
Times Broken	1		1	2

Carreno-Busta
	Round Robin Krajinovic	Round Robin Durasovic	Round Robin Tabilo	1/2 Zielinski	Total
Score	6-3 6-4	6-3 6-3	6-4 7-64	6-2 6-1
Tot Set	2	2	2	2	8
Tot Games	19	18	23	15	75
pts	63-48	63-46	80-72	53-30	259-196
Total points	111	109	152	83	455
Winners	29	30	32	25	116
%Winners	46%	48%	40%	47%	45%
SERVE
Aces	4	7	1	6	18
Double Faults	2	0	6	0	8
1st in	33/54	33/44	43/71	33/45	142/214
% 1st in	61%	75%	61%	73%	66%
1st pts	29/33	30/33	32/43	25/33	116/142
% 1st pts	88%	91%	74%	76%	82%
2nd pts	11/21	6/11	13/28	8/12	38/72
% 2nd pts	52%	55%	46%	67%	53%
Breaks
Won	3	3	4	4	14
Converted	3/6	3/8	4/10	4/8	14/32
Converted %	50%	38%	40%	50%	44%
Conceded	2	0	6	0	8
Saved	1/2	0/0	3/6	0/0	4
Saved %	50%	–	50%	–	33%
Times Broken	1	0	3	0	4

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Pablo Carreno-BustaCarreno-Busta – Denis ShapovalovShapovalov (4-1) – H2H and prediction
• Roberto Bautista AgutBautista Agut – Felix Auger AliassimeAuger Aliassime (1-2) – H2H and prediction