Denis Shapovalov and Pablo Carreno-Busta will fight against each other in the final of the the ATP Cup for the 6th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Sunday at 5:30 pm on EN ROSEWALL ARENA. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Pablo Carreno-Busta who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Pablo Carreno-Busta is the pick to win this match.
Pablo Carreno-Busta -> 1.89
Denis Shapovalov -> 1.99
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Prediction and head to head Denis Shapovalov vs. Pablo Carreno-Busta
This will be the 6th time that Denis Shapovalov and Pablo Carreno-Busta play each other. The head to head is 4-1 for Carreno-Busta (see full H2H stats), 3-0 on hard.
The last time that they played, Carreno-Busta won 3-6 7-6(5) 7-6(4) 0-6 6-3 in the quarter in at the U.S. Open back in 2020.
Highlights Pablo Carreno-Busta vs Denis Shapovalov – U.S. Open 08-September-2020
Denis Shapovalov
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 33-25 | 9-10 | 5-6 | 16-6 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 13-13 | 6-6 | 3-3 | 0-1 | 4-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 34-26 | 22-12 | 4-4 | 7-6 | 1-4 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 30-23 | 11-11 | 7-6 | 4-3 | 8-3 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 17-15 | 8-6 | 5-2 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 14, Shapovalov got to the final after defeating Jan-Lennard Struff 7-65 4-6 6-3 and Roman Safiullin 6-4 5-7 6-4.
In the semifinal, Denis defeated Safiullin (6-4 5-7 6-4). During the match, Shapovalov scored 105 points vs Safiullin’s 100. Shapovalov was pretty aggressive to blast 51 winners.
Regarding the service games, Shapovalov made 13 aces and he committed only 8 double faults. Overall, Denis Shapovalov was exceptionally effective on serve to win 76% (51/67) of his 1st serve and 53% (20/38) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Denis broke Safiullin twice after converting 22% of his break points (2/9).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Denis started his run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, he has conceded 2 set in this tournament to conquer 52% of the points he played.
Shapovalov has a solid win-loss record in the last 8 years having won 62% of his matches (231-144). 2-1 on hard in 2022. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this event, Shapovalov has an overall98-62 match record in the last 8 years on hard.
Denis has a compiled 2-1 win-loss record in 2022, 2-1 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Pablo Carreno-Busta
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 10-12 | 7-6 | 2-4 | 1-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 2-5 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 37-25 | 19-8 | 11-9 | 5-5 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 38-18 | 14-8 | 17-4 | 5-4 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 20-12 | 9-5 | 4-2 | 7-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 20, Carreno-Busta got to the final after defeating Alejandro Tabilo 6-4 7-64, Viktor Durasovic 6-3 6-3, Filip Krajinovic 6-3 6-4 and Jan Zielinski 6-2 6-1.
In the semifinal, Carreno-Busta had a good straight sets win against Zielinski (6-2 6-1). During the match Carreno-Busta scored 53 points vs Zielinski’s 30. Carreno-Busta was exceptionally aggressive to blast 25 winners.
About the serving games, Carreno-Busta blasted 6 aces and he was exceptionally solid in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Pablo Carreno-Busta was very effective on serve to win 76% (25/33) of his 1st serve and 67% (8/12) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Pablo broke Zielinski 4 times after converting 50% of his break points (4/8).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Pablo started his run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, he hasn’t conceded yet a set in this event to win 57% of the points he played.
Carreno-Busta has an overall 4-0 win-loss record in 2022, 4-0 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously, his best result was reaching the semifinal in 2021. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Shapovalov | Carreno-Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 6 | 8 |
| Tot Games | 64 | 75 |
| Pts | 219-204 | 259-196 |
| Total Points | 423 | 455 |
| Winners | 111 | 116 |
| %Winners | 51% | 45% |
Shapovalov played 2 matches while Carreno-Busta competed in 4 matches. At the moment, Denis Shapovalov conceded 2 sets while Pablo Carreno-Busta hasn’t lost a set so far. Shapovalov has played 2 set(s) less than Carreno-Busta (6 vs 8). Therefore, Shapovalov played 11 games less than Carreno-Busta. Denis scored 111 winners (51% of the total points). On the other side, Carreno-Busta made 116 winners (45%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Shapovalov | Carreno-Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 22 | 18 |
| Avg per match | 11 | 4.5 |
| 1st in | 152/217 | 142/214 |
| %1st in | 70% | 66% |
| 1st pts | 111/152 | 116/142 |
| %1st pts | 73% | 82% |
| 2nd pts | 39/65 | 38/72 |
| %2nd pts | 60% | 53% |
Shapovalov scored 22 aces (11 per match). Carreno-Busta scored 18 aces (4.5 per match). Shapovalov won 73% points behind his first serve. He very solid his second serve to win 60% of the points. On the other side, Carreno-Busta won 82% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 53% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Shapovalov | Carreno-Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 3 | 14 |
| Converted | 3/13 | 14/32 |
| % Converted | 23% | 44% |
| Conceded | 14 | 8 |
| Saved | 12 | 4 |
| % Saved | 86% | 50% |
| Times Broken | 2 | 4 |
The Canadian broke his opponents 3 times with a 23% conversion rate. Denis lost his serve twice and he saved 86% of the break points that he conceded. The Spaniard broke his opponents 14 times with a 44% conversion rate. Pablo conceded his serve 4 times and he saved 50% of the break points that he conceded.
| Shapovalov | |||||
| Round Robin Struff |
Round Robin Evans |
1/2 Safiullin |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-65 4-6 6-3 | 6-4 6-4 | 6-4 5-7 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 3 | 8 | |
| Tot Games | 32 | 20 | 32 | 84 | |
| pts | 114-104 | – | 105-100 | 219-204 | |
| Total points | 218 | 0 | 205 | 423 | |
| Winners | 60 | 51 | 111 | ||
| %Winners | 53% | 0% | 49% | 51% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 9 | 0 | 13 | 22 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 8 | 10 | ||
| 1st in | 85/112 | / | 67/105 | 152/217 | |
| % 1st in | 76% | 0% | 64% | 70% | |
| 1st pts | 60/85 | / | 51/67 | 111/152 | |
| % 1st pts | 71% | 0% | 76% | 73% | |
| 2nd pts | 19/27 | / | 20/38 | 39/65 | |
| % 2nd pts | 70% | 0% | 53% | 60% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 1 | 2 | 3 | ||
| Converted | 1/4 | / | 2/9 | 3/13 | |
| Converted % | 25% | 0% | 22% | 23% | |
| Conceded | 6 | 8 | 14 | ||
| Saved | 5/6 | 0/ | 7/8 | 12 | |
| Saved % | 83% | – | 88% | 57% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | 2 | ||
| Carreno-Busta | ||||||
| Round Robin Krajinovic |
Round Robin Durasovic |
Round Robin Tabilo |
1/2 Zielinski |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-4 | 6-3 6-3 | 6-4 7-64 | 6-2 6-1 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | |
| Tot Games | 19 | 18 | 23 | 15 | 75 | |
| pts | 63-48 | 63-46 | 80-72 | 53-30 | 259-196 | |
| Total points | 111 | 109 | 152 | 83 | 455 | |
| Winners | 29 | 30 | 32 | 25 | 116 | |
| %Winners | 46% | 48% | 40% | 47% | 45% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 4 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 18 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 8 | |
| 1st in | 33/54 | 33/44 | 43/71 | 33/45 | 142/214 | |
| % 1st in | 61% | 75% | 61% | 73% | 66% | |
| 1st pts | 29/33 | 30/33 | 32/43 | 25/33 | 116/142 | |
| % 1st pts | 88% | 91% | 74% | 76% | 82% | |
| 2nd pts | 11/21 | 6/11 | 13/28 | 8/12 | 38/72 | |
| % 2nd pts | 52% | 55% | 46% | 67% | 53% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 14 | |
| Converted | 3/6 | 3/8 | 4/10 | 4/8 | 14/32 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 38% | 40% | 50% | 44% | |
| Conceded | 2 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 8 | |
| Saved | 1/2 | 0/0 | 3/6 | 0/0 | 4 | |
| Saved % | 50% | – | 50% | – | 33% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | |
Head 2 Head
LWWWWWWWLW
LWLLLWLLWW
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Pablo Carreno-BustaCarreno-Busta – Denis ShapovalovShapovalov (4-1) – H2H and prediction
- Roberto Bautista AgutBautista Agut – Felix Auger AliassimeAuger Aliassime (1-2) – H2H and prediction
