Carlos Alcaraz Garfia and Sebastian Korda will square off in the final of the the Next Gen ATP Finals for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Saturday at 9:00 pm on Center Court. Here the head to head stats and relative prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Carlos Alcaraz Garfia who should win in 4 sets.
As per the initial odds, Carlos Alcaraz Garfia is the pick to win this match.
Carlos Alcaraz Garfia -> 1.42
Sebastian Korda -> 2.96
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Prediction and head to head Carlos Alcaraz Garfia vs. Sebastian Korda
There is no head to head record between Carlos Alcaraz Garfia and Sebastian Korda since this will be the first time that they will square off in the main tour.
Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
Ranked no. 32 (career-high), Alcaraz Garfia reached the final after defeating Holger Vitus Nodskov Rune 4-36 4-2 4-0, Brandon Nakashima 4-34 4-1 4-34, Juan Manuel Cerundolo 4-0 4-1 2-4 4-33 and Sebastian Baez 4-2 4-1 4-2.
In the semifinal, Carlos had a good straight sets win against Baez (4-2 4-1 4-2). During the match, Alcaraz Garfia scored 59 points vs Baez’s 31. The Spaniard was quite aggressive to blast 21 winners.
Regarding the service games, Alcaraz Garfia recorded 7 aces and he was pretty steady in conceding no double faults. Carlos Alcaraz Garfia was pretty efficient on serve to win 84% (21/25) of his 1st serve and 92% (11/12) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Carlos broke Baez 4 times after converting 44% of his break points (4/9).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Spaniard started his run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, he has dropped 1 set in this competition to conquer 58% of the points he played.
Alcaraz Garfia has a fantastic record in the last 4 years having won 74% of his matches (110-38). 9-3 on indoor hard courts in 2021. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this competition, Alcaraz Garfia has an aggregate9-3 match record in the last 4 years on indoor hard courts.
His best result of the season was winning the title in the Oeiras 3 Challenger where he beat Facundo Bagnis in the final 6-4 6-4 and in in Umag where he overcame Richard Gasquet in the final 6-2 6-2.
Alcaraz Garfia has an aggregate 47-19 win-loss record in 2021, 9-3 on indoor hard courts (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Next Gen ATP Finals
Alcaraz Garfia has never competed in this tournament before.
Sebastian Korda
Ranked no. 39, the American got to the final after defeating Hugo Gaston 3-42 3-46 4-0 4-33 4-0, Sebastian Baez 4-33 4-2 4-2, Lorenzo Musetti 4-2 4-34 4-2 and Brandon Nakashima 4-33 2-4 1-4 4-2 4-2.
In the semifinal, Sebastian had a tough win against Nakashima to overcome his opponent only in 5 sets (4-33 2-4 1-4 4-2 4-2).-83) than Nakashima. In fact, the world no. 32 won 83 points vs Nakashima’s. That means that Korda was more focused during the important points. Sebastian was extremely aggressive to blast 50 winners.
Talking about serving, Korda made 10 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Sebastian Korda lost the serve 3 times and he saved 8 break points. Furthermore, Korda put 75% of his first serves in, winning 74% (50/68) of the points behind his 1st serve and 43% (10/23) on the 2nd serve. The American broke Nakashima twice after converting 29% of his break points (2/7).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The American started his run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, he has conceded 4 set in the tournament to win 55% of the points he played.
His best result of the year was winning the title in the Quimper Challenger where he overcame Filip Horansky in the final 6-1 6-1 and in in Parma where he beat Marco Cecchinato in the final 6-2 6-4.
Sebastian has a compiled 36-19 win-loss record in 2021, 13-4 on indoor hard courts (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Alcaraz Garfia | Korda |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 4 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 13 | 16 |
| Tot Games | 75 | 97 |
| Pts | 254-182 | 314-260 |
| Total Points | 436 | 574 |
| Winners | 117 | 145 |
| %Winners | 46% | 46% |
Both Alcaraz Garfia and Korda played 4 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Carlos Alcaraz Garfia lost 1 set, while Sebastian Korda conceded 4 sets. Alcaraz Garfia has played 3 set(s) less than Korda (13 vs 16). Therefore, Alcaraz Garfia played 22 games less than Korda. The Spaniard scored 117 winners (46% of the total points). On the other side, Sebastian scored 145 winners (46%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Alcaraz Garfia | Korda |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 28 | 30 |
| Avg per match | 7 | 7.5 |
| 1st in | 143/219 | 188/280 |
| %1st in | 65% | 67% |
| 1st pts | 117/143 | 145/188 |
| %1st pts | 82% | 77% |
| 2nd pts | 47/76 | 53/92 |
| %2nd pts | 62% | 58% |
Alcaraz Garfia struck 28 aces (7 per match). Korda recorded 30 aces (7.5 per match). Alcaraz Garfia won 82% points on his first serve. He very solid his second serve to win 62% of the points. On the other side, Korda won 77% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 58% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Alcaraz Garfia | Korda |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 12 | 12 |
| Converted | 12/23 | 12/38 |
| % Converted | 52% | 32% |
| Conceded | 18 | 24 |
| Saved | 16 | 19 |
| % Saved | 89% | 79% |
| Times Broken | 2 | 5 |
Alcaraz Garfia broke his opponents 12 times with a 52% conversion rate. Alcaraz Garfia conceded his serve twice and he saved 89% of the break points that he conceded. Korda broke his opponents 12 times with a 32% conversion rate. The American conceded his serve 5 times and he saved 79% of the break points that he conceded.
| Alcaraz Garfia | ||||||
| Round Robin Manuel Cerundolo |
Round Robin Nakashima |
Round Robin Vitus Nodskov Rune |
1/2 Baez |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 4-0 4-1 2-4 4-33 | 4-34 4-1 4-34 | 4-36 4-2 4-0 | 4-2 4-1 4-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 13 | |
| Tot Games | 22 | 19 | 17 | 17 | 75 | |
| pts | 70-59 | 64-51 | 61-41 | 59-31 | 254-182 | |
| Total points | 129 | 115 | 102 | 90 | 436 | |
| Winners | 39 | 29 | 28 | 21 | 117 | |
| %Winners | 56% | 45% | 46% | 36% | 46% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 2 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 28 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | |
| 1st in | 53/70 | 33/63 | 32/49 | 25/37 | 143/219 | |
| % 1st in | 76% | 52% | 65% | 68% | 65% | |
| 1st pts | 39/53 | 29/33 | 28/32 | 21/25 | 117/143 | |
| % 1st pts | 74% | 88% | 88% | 84% | 82% | |
| 2nd pts | 9/17 | 18/30 | 9/17 | 11/12 | 47/76 | |
| % 2nd pts | 53% | 60% | 53% | 92% | 62% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 12 | |
| Converted | 3/5 | 2/2 | 3/7 | 4/9 | 12/23 | |
| Converted % | 60% | 100% | 43% | 44% | 52% | |
| Conceded | 10 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 18 | |
| Saved | 9/10 | 4/5 | 0/0 | 3/3 | 16 | |
| Saved % | 90% | 80% | – | 100% | 68% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| Korda | ||||||
| Round Robin Musetti |
Round Robin Baez |
Round Robin Gaston |
1/2 Nakashima |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 4-2 4-34 4-2 | 4-33 4-2 4-2 | 3-42 3-46 4-0 4-33 4-0 | 4-33 2-4 1-4 4-2 4-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 16 | |
| Tot Games | 19 | 19 | 29 | 30 | 97 | |
| pts | 60-40 | 67-47 | 104-88 | 83-85 | 314-260 | |
| Total points | 100 | 114 | 192 | 168 | 574 | |
| Winners | 27 | 28 | 40 | 50 | 145 | |
| %Winners | 45% | 42% | 38% | 60% | 46% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 3 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 30 | |
| Double Faults | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 | |
| 1st in | 30/46 | 31/51 | 59/92 | 68/91 | 188/280 | |
| % 1st in | 65% | 61% | 64% | 75% | 67% | |
| 1st pts | 27/30 | 28/31 | 40/59 | 50/68 | 145/188 | |
| % 1st pts | 90% | 90% | 68% | 74% | 77% | |
| 2nd pts | 13/16 | 10/20 | 20/33 | 10/23 | 53/92 | |
| % 2nd pts | 81% | 50% | 61% | 43% | 58% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 2 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 12 | |
| Converted | 2/5 | 3/8 | 5/18 | 2/7 | 12/38 | |
| Converted % | 40% | 38% | 28% | 29% | 32% | |
| Conceded | 0 | 3 | 10 | 11 | 24 | |
| Saved | 0/0 | 2/3 | 9/10 | 8/11 | 19 | |
| Saved % | – | 67% | 90% | 73% | 58% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | |
Head 2 Head
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia – Sebastian KordaKorda (0-0) – H2H and prediction
