Aryna Sabalenka and Elise Mertens will square off in the 4th round of the U.S. Open for the 8th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Sunday at 3:00 pm on Louis Armstrong Stadium. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Aryna Sabalenka who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Aryna Sabalenka is the pick to win this match.
Aryna Sabalenka -> 1.35
Elise Mertens -> 3.44
Click here to see the updated quotes and live streaming (only selected countries - USA excluded).
To be able to watch live streaming bet365, a funded account is required or you need to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. 18+ BeGambleAware.
Here where top tennis events are broadcasted or streamed online (ATP, WTA).
At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.
Prediction and head to head Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elise Mertens
This will be the 8th time that Aryna Sabalenka and Elise Mertens clash against each other. The head to head is 5-2 for Sabalenka (see full H2H stats), 2-1 on hard.
The last time that they played, Sabalenka won 6-1 4-0 ret. in the quarter in Madrid back in May 2021.
Highlights Aryna Sabalenka vs Elise Mertens – Madrid 05-May-2021
Aryna Sabalenka
Ranked no. 2 (career-high), Sabalenka got to the 4th round after beating Nina Stojanovic 6-4 6-74 6-0, Tamara Zidansek 6-3 6-1 and Danielle Rose Collins 6-3 6-3.
In the 3rd round, Sabalenka had a good straight sets win against Collins (6-3 6-3). During the match, Sabalenka scored 77 points vs Collins’s 59. Aryna was quite aggressive to blast 27 winners.
Regarding the service games, Sabalenka blasted 4 aces and she committed only 4 double faults. Aryna Sabalenka was exceptionally efficient on serve to win 79% (27/34) of her 1st serve and 57% (12/21) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. The Belarussian broke Collins 3 times after converting 30% of her break points (3/10).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Sabalenka started her run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, she has lost 1 set in this event to conquer 58% of the points she played.
Sabalenka has a solid win-loss record in the last 6 years having won 66% of her matches (226-114). 21-8 on hard in 2021. Talking about her performance on the same surface of this event, Sabalenka has a compiled131-58 win-loss record in the last 6 years on hard.
Her best result of the current year was winning the title in in Abu Dhabi where she defeated Veronika Kudermetova in the final 6-2 6-2 and in in Madrid where she defeated Ashleigh Barty in the final 6-0 3-6 6-4.
Sabalenka has an aggregate 41-14 win-loss record in 2021, 21-8 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the U.S. Open
Previously, her best result was reaching the 4th round in 2018. See her history.
Elise Mertens
Ranked no. 16, Elise reached the 4th round after defeating Rebecca Peterson 3-6 7-65 7-65, Valentini Grammatikopoulou 6-2 6-2 and Ons Jabeur 6-3 7-5.
In the 3rd round, The Belgian had a good straight sets win against Jabeur (6-3 7-5). During the match Mertens scored 75 points vs Jabeur’s 61. Mertens was exceptionally aggressive to blast 26 winners.
About the serving games, Mertens recorded 5 aces and she committed only 5 double faults. Elise Mertens lost the serve 3 times and she saved 3 break points. Furthermore, Mertens put 58% of her first serves in, winning 68% (26/38) of the points behind her 1st serve and 48% (13/27) on the 2nd serve. Mertens broke Jabeur 6 times after converting 75% of her break points (6/8).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Mertens started her run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, she has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 53% of the points she played.
Her best result of the season was winning the title in in Melbourne where she defeated Kaia Kanepi in the final 6-4 6-1.
Elise has an aggregate 30-15 win-loss record in 2021, 19-7 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the U.S. Open
Previously, her best result was reaching the quarter in 2019 and 2020. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Sabalenka | Mertens |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 3 | 3 |
| Tot Set | 7 | 7 |
| Tot Games | 63 | 72 |
| Pts | 246-175 | 261-230 |
| Total Points | 421 | 491 |
| Winners | 94 | 88 |
| %Winners | 38% | 34% |
Both Sabalenka and Mertens played 3 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Aryna Sabalenka surrendered 1 set, while Elise Mertens dropped 1 set. Talking about their workload, Sabalenka and Mertens have played the same amount of sets 7. However, Sabalenka played 9 games less than Mertens. The Belarussian scored 94 winners (38% of the total points). On the other side, Elise managed to score 88 winners (34%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Sabalenka | Mertens |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 21 | 15 |
| Avg per match | 7 | 5 |
| 1st in | 112/189 | 133/237 |
| %1st in | 59% | 56% |
| 1st pts | 94/112 | 88/133 |
| %1st pts | 84% | 66% |
| 2nd pts | 36/77 | 40/104 |
| %2nd pts | 47% | 38% |
Sabalenka struck 21 aces (7 per match). Mertens scored 15 aces (5 per match). Sabalenka won 84% points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 47% of the points. On the other side, Mertens won 66% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 38% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Sabalenka | Mertens |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 14 | 20 |
| Converted | 14/26 | 20/34 |
| % Converted | 54% | 59% |
| Conceded | 13 | 30 |
| Saved | 10 | 16 |
| % Saved | 77% | 53% |
| Times Broken | 3 | 14 |
The Belarussian broke her opponents 14 times with a 54% conversion rate. Aryna conceded her serve 3 times and she saved 77% of the break points that she conceded. Elise broke her opponents 20 times with a 59% conversion rate. Mertens conceded her serve 14 times and she saved 53% of the break points that she conceded.
| Sabalenka | |||||
| R1 Stojanovic |
R2 Zidansek |
R3 Collins |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-74 6-0 | 6-3 6-1 | 6-3 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | |
| Tot Games | 29 | 16 | 18 | 63 | |
| pts | 109-84 | 60-32 | 77-59 | 246-175 | |
| Total points | 193 | 92 | 136 | 421 | |
| Winners | 44 | 23 | 27 | 94 | |
| %Winners | 40% | 38% | 35% | 38% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 13 | 4 | 4 | 21 | |
| Double Faults | 13 | 1 | 4 | 18 | |
| 1st in | 51/94 | 27/40 | 34/55 | 112/189 | |
| % 1st in | 54% | 68% | 62% | 59% | |
| 1st pts | 44/51 | 23/27 | 27/34 | 94/112 | |
| % 1st pts | 86% | 85% | 79% | 84% | |
| 2nd pts | 14/43 | 10/13 | 12/21 | 36/77 | |
| % 2nd pts | 33% | 77% | 57% | 47% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 7 | 4 | 3 | 14 | |
| Converted | 7/11 | 4/5 | 3/10 | 14/26 | |
| Converted % | 64% | 80% | 30% | 54% | |
| Conceded | 8 | 2 | 3 | 13 | |
| Saved | 5/8 | 2/2 | 3/3 | 10 | |
| Saved % | 63% | 100% | 100% | 88% | |
| Times Broken | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | |
| Mertens | |||||
| R1 Peterson |
R2 Grammatikopoulou |
R3 Jabeur |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 3-6 7-65 7-65 | 6-2 6-2 | 6-3 7-5 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | |
| Tot Games | 35 | 16 | 21 | 72 | |
| pts | 121-128 | 65-41 | 75-61 | 261-230 | |
| Total points | 249 | 106 | 136 | 491 | |
| Winners | 41 | 21 | 26 | 88 | |
| %Winners | 34% | 32% | 35% | 34% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 10 | 0 | 5 | 15 | |
| Double Faults | 13 | 4 | 5 | 22 | |
| 1st in | 61/114 | 34/58 | 38/65 | 133/237 | |
| % 1st in | 54% | 59% | 58% | 56% | |
| 1st pts | 41/61 | 21/34 | 26/38 | 88/133 | |
| % 1st pts | 67% | 62% | 68% | 66% | |
| 2nd pts | 16/53 | 11/24 | 13/27 | 40/104 | |
| % 2nd pts | 30% | 46% | 48% | 38% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 7 | 7 | 6 | 20 | |
| Converted | 7/16 | 7/10 | 6/8 | 20/34 | |
| Converted % | 44% | 70% | 75% | 59% | |
| Conceded | 18 | 6 | 6 | 30 | |
| Saved | 10/18 | 3/6 | 3/6 | 16 | |
| Saved % | 56% | 50% | 50% | 52% | |
| Times Broken | 8 | 3 | 3 | 14 | |
Head 2 Head
LWWWLWWWWW
WLWLLWWWLW Tennis Scores – U.S. Open
- Shelby RogersRogers – Ashleigh BartyBarty (6-2 1-6 7-65) – See score progression
- Belinda BencicBencic – Jessica PegulaPegula (6-2 6-4) – See score progression
- Emma RaducanuRaducanu – Sara Sorribes TormoSorribes Tormo (6-0 6-1) – See score progression
- Bianca Vanessa AndreescuVanessa Andreescu – Greetje MinnenMinnen (6-1 6-2) – See score progression
- Maria SakkariSakkari – Petra KvitovaKvitova (6-4 6-3) – See score progression
- Karolina PliskovaPliskova – Ajla TomljanovicTomljanovic (6-3 6-2) – See score progression
- Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Anett KontaveitKontaveit (6-3 4-6 6-3) – See score progression
- Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Danielle Rose CollinsRose Collins (6-3 6-3) – See score progression
- Elise MertensMertens – Ons JabeurJabeur (6-3 7-5) – See score progression
- Garbine MuguruzaMuguruza – Victoria AzarenkaAzarenka (6-4 3-6 6-2) – See score progression
- Barbora KrejcikovaKrejcikova – Kamilla RakhimovaRakhimova (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
- Simona HalepHalep – Elena RybakinaRybakina (7-611 4-6 6-3) – See score progression
- Leylah Annie FernandezAnnie Fernandez – Naomi OsakaOsaka (5-7 7-62 6-4) – See score progression
- Elina SvitolinaSvitolina – Daria KasatkinaKasatkina (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
- Angelique KerberKerber – Sloane StephensStephens (5-7 6-2 6-3) – See score progression
- Shelby RogersRogers – Ashleigh BartyBarty (6-2 1-6 7-6(5)) – See score progression
- Emma RaducanuRaducanu – Sara Sorribes TormoSorribes Tormo (6-0 6-1) – See score progression
- Belinda BencicBencic – Jessica PegulaPegula (6-2 6-4) – See score progression
- Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Anett KontaveitKontaveit (6-3 4-6 6-3) – See score progression
- Karolina PliskovaPliskova – Ajla TomljanovicTomljanovic (6-3 6-2) – See score progression
- Maria SakkariSakkari – Petra KvitovaKvitova (6-4 6-3) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Varvara GrachevaGracheva – Anastasia PavlyuchenkovaPavlyuchenkova (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Shelby RogersRogers – Emma RaducanuRaducanu (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Belinda BencicBencic – Iga SwiatekSwiatek (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Maria SakkariSakkari – Bianca Vanessa AndreescuVanessa Andreescu (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Elina SvitolinaSvitolina – Simona HalepHalep (5-5) – H2H and prediction
- Angelique KerberKerber – Leylah Annie FernandezAnnie Fernandez (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Barbora KrejcikovaKrejcikova – Garbine MuguruzaMuguruza (1-1) – H2H and prediction
- Elise MertensMertens – Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka (2-5) – H2H and prediction
