Daniil Medvedev and Pablo Carreno-Busta will clash against each other in the quarter of the Olympics for the 5th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Thursday at 5:00 pm on Court 1. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Daniil Medvedev who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Daniil Medvedev is the pick to win this match.
Daniil Medvedev -> 1.285
Pablo Carreno-Busta -> 3.95

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Prediction and head to head Daniil Medvedev vs. Pablo Carreno-Busta

This will be the 5th time that Daniil Medvedev and Pablo Carreno-Busta square off. The head to head is 3-1 for Medvedev (see full H2H stats), but Carreno-Busta has a winning record of 1-0 on hard.

The last time that they played each other, Medvedev won 3-6 6-3 6-2 in the semifinal in Mallorca back in June 2021.

Highlights Daniil Medvedev vs Pablo Carreno-Busta – Mallorca 25-June-2021

Daniil Medvedev

Ranked no. 2 (career-high), Medvedev reached the quarter after beating Alexander Bublik 6-4 7-68

, Sumit Nagal 6-2 6-1 and Fabio Fognini 6-2 3-6 6-2.

In the 3rd round, The Russian defeated Fognini (6-2 3-6 6-2). During the match, Medvedev scored 92 points vs Fognini’s 78. Daniil was exceptionally aggressive to blast 30 winners.

Regarding the service games, Medvedev blasted 9 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Daniil Medvedev lost the serve once and he saved 7 break points. Furthermore, Medvedev put 49% of his first serves in, winning 70% (30/43) of the points behind his 1st serve and 63% (26/41) on the 2nd serve. Medvedev broke Fognini 4 times after converting 44% of his break points (4/9).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Medvedev started his run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, he has dropped 1 set in this competition to win 57% of the points he played.

Medvedev has a solid win-loss record in the last 9 years having won 69% of his matches (348-156). 16-2 on hard in 2021. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this competition, Medvedev has a compiled138-51 win-loss record in the last 9 years on hard.

His best result of the year was conquering the title in in Marseille where he beat Pierre-Hugues Herbert in the final 6-4 6-7(4) 6-4 and in in Mallorca where he defeated Sam Querrey in the final 6-4 6-2.

The Russian has a composed 32-8 win-loss record in 2021, 16-2 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Olympics

Daniil has never competed in this tournament before.

Tokyo
Medvedev's Record

Pablo Carreno-Busta

Ranked no. 11, the Spaniard got to the quarter after defeating Tennys Sandgren 7-5 6-2, Marin Cilic 5-7 6-4 6-4 and Dominik Koepfer 7-67 6-3.

In the 3rd round, Carreno-Busta had a good straight sets win against Koepfer (7-67 6-3). During the match Carreno-Busta scored 78 points vs Koepfer’s 71. Carreno-Busta was exceptionally aggressive to blast 34 winners.

Talking about serving, Carreno-Busta scored 7 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Overall, Pablo Carreno-Busta was quite effective on serve to win 74% (34/46) of his 1st serve and 56% (15/27) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Pablo broke Koepfer 3 times after converting 50% of his break points (3/6).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Pablo started his run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, he has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 53% of the points he played.

His best result of the current season was conquering the title in in Marbella where he defeated Jaume Antoni Munar Clar in the final 6-1 2-6 6-4 and in in Hamburg where he overcame Filip Krajinovic in the final 6-2 6-4.

Carreno-Busta has an aggregate 26-9 win-loss record in 2021, 7-3 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Tokyo
Carreno-Busta's Record

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

D.Medvedev
P.Carreno-Busta
5h:09
5h:09
Time on court​
5h:50
5h:50
!
2h:25
2h:25
Last match​
1h:55
1h:55
3
3
Match played
3
3
63
63
Games Played​
74
74
7
7
Set played​​
7
7
238
238
Total points​
246
246
79.3
79.3
Avg point​
82
82
86
86
Winners
124
124
28.7
28.7
Avg Winners​
41.3
41.3
36%
36%
Ratio winners
50%
50%
-- Serve --
24
24
Aces
20
20
8
8
Avg Aces
6.7
6.7
4
4
Double Faults
5
5
1.3
1.3
Avg Double Faults
1.7
1.7
86/113
86/113
1st won total​
124/175
124/175
!
76%
76%
1st won %
!
71%
71%
53/84
53/84
2nd won total​
34/56
34/56
!
63%
63%
2nd won %
!
61%
61%
-- Break Points --
11/25
11/25
BP won
10/24
10/24
3.7/8.3
3.7/8.3
Avg BP won
3.3/8
3.3/8
44%
44%
Won
42%
42%
12
12
Conceded
12
12
4
4
Avg Conceded
4
4
2
2
Broken
4
4
!
0.7
0.7
Avg Broken
1.3
1.3
10
10
Saved
8
8
See Allstats

Matches, sets, games and points

Points Medvedev Carreno-Busta
Match played 3 3
Tot Set 7 7
Tot Games 63 74
Pts 238-183 246-217
Total Points 421 463
Winners 86 124
%Winners 36% 50%

Both Medvedev and Carreno-Busta played 3 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Daniil Medvedev dropped 1 set, while Pablo Carreno-Busta dropped 1 set. Talking about their workload, Medvedev and Carreno-Busta have played the same amount of sets 7. However, Medvedev played 11 games less than Carreno-Busta. Daniil scored 86 winners (36% of the total points). On the other side, Carreno-Busta recorded 124 winners (50%).

Serve Performance

Serve Medvedev Carreno-Busta
Aces 24 20
Avg per match 8 6.7
1st in 113/201 175/236
%1st in 56% 74%
1st pts 86/113 124/175
%1st pts 76% 71%
2nd pts 53/84 34/56
%2nd pts 63% 61%

Medvedev recorded 24 aces (8 per match). Carreno-Busta blasted 20 aces (6.7 per match). Medvedev won 76% points on his first serve. He pretty solid on his second serve to win 63% of the points. On the other side, Carreno-Busta won 71% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 61% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks Medvedev Carreno-Busta
Won 11 10
Converted 11/25 10/24
% Converted 44% 42%
Conceded 12 12
Saved 10 8
% Saved 83% 67%
Times Broken 2 4

Medvedev broke his opponents 11 times with a 44% conversion rate. Medvedev conceded his serve twice and he saved 83% of the break points that he conceded. Pablo broke his opponents 10 times with a 42% conversion rate. Carreno-Busta conceded his serve 4 times and he saved 67% of the break points that he conceded.

Medvedev
R1
Bublik		 R2
Nagal		 R3
Fognini		 Total
Score 6-4 7-68 6-2 6-1 6-2 3-6 6-2
Tot Set 2 2 3 7
Tot Games 23 15 25 63
pts 86-69 60-36 92-78 238-183
Total points 155 96 170 421
Winners 33 23 30 86
%Winners 38% 38% 33% 36%
SERVE
Aces 11 4 9 24
Double Faults 1 0 3 4
1st in 42/75 28/39 43/87 113/201
% 1st in 56% 72% 49% 56%
1st pts 33/42 23/28 30/43 86/113
% 1st pts 79% 82% 70% 76%
2nd pts 20/32 7/11 26/41 53/84
% 2nd pts 63% 64% 63% 63%
Breaks
Won 2 5 4 11
Converted 2/5 5/11 4/9 11/25
Converted % 40% 45% 44% 44%
Conceded 4 0 8 12
Saved 3/4 0/0 7/8 10
Saved % 75% – 88% 54%
Times Broken 1 0 1 2
Carreno-Busta
R1
Sandgren		 R2
Cilic		 R3
Koepfer		 Total
Score 7-5 6-2 5-7 6-4 6-4 7-67 6-3
Tot Set 2 3 2 7
Tot Games 20 32 22 74
pts 75-55 93-91 78-71 246-217
Total points 130 184 149 463
Winners 33 57 34 124
%Winners 44% 61% 44% 50%
SERVE
Aces 7 6 7 20
Double Faults 1 1 3 5
1st in 52/64 77/96 46/76 175/236
% 1st in 81% 80% 61% 74%
1st pts 33/52 57/77 34/46 124/175
% 1st pts 63% 74% 74% 71%
2nd pts 8/11 11/18 15/27 34/56
% 2nd pts 73% 61% 56% 61%
Breaks
Won 5 2 3 10
Converted 5/13 2/5 3/6 10/24
Converted % 38% 40% 50% 42%
Conceded 4 2 6 12
Saved 2/4 1/2 5/6 8
Saved % 50% 50% 83% 61%
Times Broken 2 1 1 4

Tennis Scores in Tokyo

Upcoming matches in the draw

Medvedev
More Stats
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Carreno-Busta

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