Daniil Medvedev and Pablo Carreno-Busta will clash against each other in the quarter of the Olympics for the 5th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Thursday at 5:00 pm on Court 1. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Daniil Medvedev who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Daniil Medvedev is the pick to win this match.
Daniil Medvedev -> 1.285
Pablo Carreno-Busta -> 3.95
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Prediction and head to head Daniil Medvedev vs. Pablo Carreno-Busta
This will be the 5th time that Daniil Medvedev and Pablo Carreno-Busta square off. The head to head is 3-1 for Medvedev (see full H2H stats), but Carreno-Busta has a winning record of 1-0 on hard.
The last time that they played each other, Medvedev won 3-6 6-3 6-2 in the semifinal in Mallorca back in June 2021.
Highlights Daniil Medvedev vs Pablo Carreno-Busta – Mallorca 25-June-2021
Daniil Medvedev
Ranked no. 2 (career-high), Medvedev reached the quarter after beating Alexander Bublik 6-4 7-68, Sumit Nagal 6-2 6-1 and Fabio Fognini 6-2 3-6 6-2.
In the 3rd round, The Russian defeated Fognini (6-2 3-6 6-2). During the match, Medvedev scored 92 points vs Fognini’s 78. Daniil was exceptionally aggressive to blast 30 winners.
Regarding the service games, Medvedev blasted 9 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Daniil Medvedev lost the serve once and he saved 7 break points. Furthermore, Medvedev put 49% of his first serves in, winning 70% (30/43) of the points behind his 1st serve and 63% (26/41) on the 2nd serve. Medvedev broke Fognini 4 times after converting 44% of his break points (4/9).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Medvedev started his run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, he has dropped 1 set in this competition to win 57% of the points he played.
Medvedev has a solid win-loss record in the last 9 years having won 69% of his matches (348-156). 16-2 on hard in 2021. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this competition, Medvedev has a compiled138-51 win-loss record in the last 9 years on hard.
His best result of the year was conquering the title in in Marseille where he beat Pierre-Hugues Herbert in the final 6-4 6-7(4) 6-4 and in in Mallorca where he defeated Sam Querrey in the final 6-4 6-2.
The Russian has a composed 32-8 win-loss record in 2021, 16-2 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Olympics
Daniil has never competed in this tournament before.
Pablo Carreno-Busta
Ranked no. 11, the Spaniard got to the quarter after defeating Tennys Sandgren 7-5 6-2, Marin Cilic 5-7 6-4 6-4 and Dominik Koepfer 7-67 6-3.
In the 3rd round, Carreno-Busta had a good straight sets win against Koepfer (7-67 6-3). During the match Carreno-Busta scored 78 points vs Koepfer’s 71. Carreno-Busta was exceptionally aggressive to blast 34 winners.
Talking about serving, Carreno-Busta scored 7 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Overall, Pablo Carreno-Busta was quite effective on serve to win 74% (34/46) of his 1st serve and 56% (15/27) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Pablo broke Koepfer 3 times after converting 50% of his break points (3/6).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Pablo started his run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, he has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 53% of the points he played.
His best result of the current season was conquering the title in in Marbella where he defeated Jaume Antoni Munar Clar in the final 6-1 2-6 6-4 and in in Hamburg where he overcame Filip Krajinovic in the final 6-2 6-4.
Carreno-Busta has an aggregate 26-9 win-loss record in 2021, 7-3 on hard (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Medvedev | Carreno-Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 3 | 3 |
| Tot Set | 7 | 7 |
| Tot Games | 63 | 74 |
| Pts | 238-183 | 246-217 |
| Total Points | 421 | 463 |
| Winners | 86 | 124 |
| %Winners | 36% | 50% |
Both Medvedev and Carreno-Busta played 3 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Daniil Medvedev dropped 1 set, while Pablo Carreno-Busta dropped 1 set. Talking about their workload, Medvedev and Carreno-Busta have played the same amount of sets 7. However, Medvedev played 11 games less than Carreno-Busta. Daniil scored 86 winners (36% of the total points). On the other side, Carreno-Busta recorded 124 winners (50%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Medvedev | Carreno-Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 24 | 20 |
| Avg per match | 8 | 6.7 |
| 1st in | 113/201 | 175/236 |
| %1st in | 56% | 74% |
| 1st pts | 86/113 | 124/175 |
| %1st pts | 76% | 71% |
| 2nd pts | 53/84 | 34/56 |
| %2nd pts | 63% | 61% |
Medvedev recorded 24 aces (8 per match). Carreno-Busta blasted 20 aces (6.7 per match). Medvedev won 76% points on his first serve. He pretty solid on his second serve to win 63% of the points. On the other side, Carreno-Busta won 71% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 61% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Medvedev | Carreno-Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 11 | 10 |
| Converted | 11/25 | 10/24 |
| % Converted | 44% | 42% |
| Conceded | 12 | 12 |
| Saved | 10 | 8 |
| % Saved | 83% | 67% |
| Times Broken | 2 | 4 |
Medvedev broke his opponents 11 times with a 44% conversion rate. Medvedev conceded his serve twice and he saved 83% of the break points that he conceded. Pablo broke his opponents 10 times with a 42% conversion rate. Carreno-Busta conceded his serve 4 times and he saved 67% of the break points that he conceded.
| Medvedev | |||||
| R1 Bublik |
R2 Nagal |
R3 Fognini |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 7-68 | 6-2 6-1 | 6-2 3-6 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | |
| Tot Games | 23 | 15 | 25 | 63 | |
| pts | 86-69 | 60-36 | 92-78 | 238-183 | |
| Total points | 155 | 96 | 170 | 421 | |
| Winners | 33 | 23 | 30 | 86 | |
| %Winners | 38% | 38% | 33% | 36% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 11 | 4 | 9 | 24 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | |
| 1st in | 42/75 | 28/39 | 43/87 | 113/201 | |
| % 1st in | 56% | 72% | 49% | 56% | |
| 1st pts | 33/42 | 23/28 | 30/43 | 86/113 | |
| % 1st pts | 79% | 82% | 70% | 76% | |
| 2nd pts | 20/32 | 7/11 | 26/41 | 53/84 | |
| % 2nd pts | 63% | 64% | 63% | 63% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 2 | 5 | 4 | 11 | |
| Converted | 2/5 | 5/11 | 4/9 | 11/25 | |
| Converted % | 40% | 45% | 44% | 44% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 0 | 8 | 12 | |
| Saved | 3/4 | 0/0 | 7/8 | 10 | |
| Saved % | 75% | – | 88% | 54% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Carreno-Busta | |||||
| R1 Sandgren |
R2 Cilic |
R3 Koepfer |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-5 6-2 | 5-7 6-4 6-4 | 7-67 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 2 | 7 | |
| Tot Games | 20 | 32 | 22 | 74 | |
| pts | 75-55 | 93-91 | 78-71 | 246-217 | |
| Total points | 130 | 184 | 149 | 463 | |
| Winners | 33 | 57 | 34 | 124 | |
| %Winners | 44% | 61% | 44% | 50% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 7 | 6 | 7 | 20 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | |
| 1st in | 52/64 | 77/96 | 46/76 | 175/236 | |
| % 1st in | 81% | 80% | 61% | 74% | |
| 1st pts | 33/52 | 57/77 | 34/46 | 124/175 | |
| % 1st pts | 63% | 74% | 74% | 71% | |
| 2nd pts | 8/11 | 11/18 | 15/27 | 34/56 | |
| % 2nd pts | 73% | 61% | 56% | 61% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 5 | 2 | 3 | 10 | |
| Converted | 5/13 | 2/5 | 3/6 | 10/24 | |
| Converted % | 38% | 40% | 50% | 42% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 2 | 6 | 12 | |
| Saved | 2/4 | 1/2 | 5/6 | 8 | |
| Saved % | 50% | 50% | 83% | 61% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | |
Head 2 Head
LWWLWWWWWL
LWLLWWWWLW Tennis Scores in Tokyo
- Alexander ZverevZverev – Nikoloz BasilashviliBasilashvili (6-4 7-65) – See score progression
- Karen KhachanovKhachanov – Diego Sebastian SchwartzmanSebastian Schwartzman (6-1 2-6 6-1) – See score progression
- Pablo Carreno-BustaCarreno-Busta – Dominik KoepferKoepfer (7-67 6-3) – See score progression
- Kei NishikoriNishikori – Ilya IvashkaIvashka (7-67 6-0) – See score progression
- Novak DjokovicDjokovic – Alejandro Davidovich FokinaDavidovich Fokina (6-3 6-1) – See score progression
- Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Fabio FogniniFognini (6-2 3-6 6-2) – See score progression
- Ugo HumbertHumbert – Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas (2-6 7-64 6-2) – See score progression
- Jeremy ChardyChardy – Liam BroadyBroady (7-63 4-6 6-1) – See score progression
- Novak DjokovicDjokovic – Alejandro Davidovich FokinaDavidovich Fokina (6-3 6-1) – See score progression
- Kei NishikoriNishikori – Ilya IvashkaIvashka (7-6(7) 6-0) – See score progression
- Alexander ZverevZverev – Nikoloz BasilashviliBasilashvili (6-4 7-6(5)) – See score progression
- Jeremy ChardyChardy – Liam BroadyBroady (7-6(3) 4-6 6-1) – See score progression
- Karen KhachanovKhachanov – Diego Sebastian SchwartzmanSebastian Schwartzman (6-1 2-6 6-1) – See score progression
- Ugo HumbertHumbert – Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas (2-6 7-6(4) 6-2) – See score progression
- Pablo Carreno-BustaCarreno-Busta – Dominik KoepferKoepfer (7-6(7) 6-3) – See score progression
- Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Fabio FogniniFognini (6-2 3-6 6-2) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Novak DjokovicDjokovic – Kei NishikoriNishikori (16-2) – H2H and prediction
- Pablo Carreno-BustaCarreno-Busta – Daniil MedvedevMedvedev (1-3) – H2H and prediction
- Alexander ZverevZverev – Jeremy ChardyChardy (4-1) – H2H and prediction
- Karen KhachanovKhachanov – Ugo HumbertHumbert (0-0) – H2H and prediction
