Rafael Nadal and Denis Shapovalov will play each other in the 3rd round of the Internazionali BNL d’Italia for the 4th time of their career. They are scheduled to play on Thursday at 2:00 pm on Center Court. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and the prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Rafael Nadal who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Rafael Nadal is the pick to win this match.
Rafael Nadal -> 1.129
Denis Shapovalov -> 6.85
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Prediction and head to head Rafael Nadal vs. Denis Shapovalov
This will be the 4th time that Rafael Nadal and Denis Shapovalov square off. The head to head is 2-1 for Nadal (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on clay.
The last time that they locked horns, Nadal won 6-3 7-6(7) in the Rubber 2 in 0 back in 2019.
Rafael Nadal
Ranked no. 3, Rafael got to the 3rd round after beating Jannik Sinner 7-5 6-4.
In the 2nd round, Rafael had a good straight sets win against Sinner (7-5 6-4). During the match Nadal scored 75 points vs Sinner’s 64. Rafael was exceptionally aggressive to blast 21 winners.
Talking about the service games, Nadal wasn’t able to score even 1 ace throughout the match and he committed only 1 double fault. Rafael Nadal lost the serve 3 times and he saved 1 break points. Furthermore, Nadal put 49% of his first serves in, winning 70% (21/30) of the points behind his 1st serve and 55% (17/31) on the 2nd serve. Rafael broke Sinner 5 times after converting 33% of his break points (5/15).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Nadal started his run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, he hasn’t conceded yet a set in this competition to win 54% of the points he played.
Nadal has a terrific record in the last 10 years having won 84% of his matches (477-91). 10-2 on clay in 2021. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this competition, Nadal has a 224-24 match record in the last years on clay.
His best result of the current year was winning the title in in Barcelona where he beat Stefanos Tsitsipas in the final 6-4 6-7(6) 7-5.
The Spaniard has a 14-3 win-loss record in 2021, 10-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Rome
Previously, he won this tournament 9 times in 2005, 2006, 2007, 2009, 2010, 2012, 2013, 2018 and 2019. See his history.
Denis Shapovalov
Ranked no. 14, the Canadian got to the 3rd round after defeating Kamil Majchrzak 6-1 6-3 and Stefano Travaglia 7-62 6-3.
In the 2nd round, Denis had a good straight sets win against Travaglia (7-62 6-3). During the match Shapovalov scored 73 points vs Travaglia’s 65. Shapovalov was pretty aggressive to blast 26 winners.
Talking about serving, Shapovalov scored 2 aces and he was not very consistent on his 2nd serve to score 10 double faults. Denis Shapovalov was pretty efficient on serve to win 90% (26/29) of his 1st serve and 57% (20/35) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Shapovalov broke Travaglia twice after converting 29% of his break points (2/7).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Canadian started his run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, he hasn’t conceded yet a set in this event to win 57% of the points he played.
The Canadian’s best result of the current season was getting to the semifinal in Dubai.
Denis has a 11-9 win-loss record in 2021, 4-3 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Rome
Previously, his best result was reaching the semifinal in 2020. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Nadal | Shapovalov |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 1 | 2 |
| Tot Set | 2 | 4 |
| Tot Games | 22 | 38 |
| Pts | 75-64 | 133-102 |
| Total Points | 139 | 235 |
| Winners | 21 | 43 |
| %Winners | 28% | 32% |
Nadal played 1 match while Shapovalov competed in 2 matches. Both players have not surrendered a single set in this event so far. Nadal has played 2 set(s) less than Shapovalov (2 vs 4). Therefore, Nadal played 16 games less than Shapovalov. The Spaniard scored 21 winners (28% of the total points). On the other side, Denis struck 43 winners (32%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Nadal | Shapovalov |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 0 | 5 |
| Avg per match | 0 | 2.5 |
| 1st in | 30/61 | 50/106 |
| %1st in | 49% | 47% |
| 1st pts | 21/30 | 43/50 |
| %1st pts | 70% | 86% |
| 2nd pts | 17/31 | 32/56 |
| %2nd pts | 55% | 57% |
Nadal didn’t manage to fire a single ace to far. Shapovalov struck 5 aces (2.5 per match). Nadal won 70% points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 55% of the points. On the other side, Shapovalov won 86% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 57% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Nadal | Shapovalov |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 5 | 7 |
| Converted | 5/15 | 7/16 |
| % Converted | 33% | 44% |
| Conceded | 4 | 4 |
| Saved | 1 | 3 |
| % Saved | 25% | 75% |
| Times Broken | 3 | 1 |
Rafael broke his opponent 5 times with a 33% conversion rate. Rafael dropped his serve 3 times and he saved 25% of the break points that he conceded. Denis broke his opponents 7 times with a 44% conversion rate. Denis conceded his serve once and he saved 75% of the break points that he conceded.
| Nadal | ||||
| R2 Sinner |
R2 Sinner |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-5 6-4 | 7-5 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Tot Games | 22 | 22 | 44 | |
| pts | 75-64 | 75-64 | 150-128 | |
| Total points | 139 | 139 | 278 | |
| Winners | 21 | 21 | 42 | |
| %Winners | 28% | 28% | 28% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| 1st in | 30/61 | 30/61 | 60/122 | |
| % 1st in | 49% | 49% | 49% | |
| 1st pts | 21/30 | 21/30 | 42/60 | |
| % 1st pts | 70% | 70% | 70% | |
| 2nd pts | 17/31 | 17/31 | 34/62 | |
| % 2nd pts | 55% | 55% | 55% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 5 | 5 | 10 | |
| Converted | 5/15 | 5/15 | 10/30 | |
| Converted % | 33% | 33% | 33% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 4 | 8 | |
| Saved | 1/4 | 1/4 | 2 | |
| Saved % | 25% | 25% | 25% | |
| Times Broken | 3 | 3 | 6 | |
| Shapovalov | ||||
| R1 Majchrzak |
R2 Travaglia |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-1 6-3 | 7-62 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Tot Games | 16 | 22 | 38 | |
| pts | 60-37 | 73-65 | 133-102 | |
| Total points | 97 | 138 | 235 | |
| Winners | 17 | 26 | 43 | |
| %Winners | 28% | 36% | 32% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 3 | 2 | 5 | |
| Double Faults | 4 | 10 | 14 | |
| 1st in | 21/42 | 29/64 | 50/106 | |
| % 1st in | 50% | 45% | 47% | |
| 1st pts | 17/21 | 26/29 | 43/50 | |
| % 1st pts | 81% | 90% | 86% | |
| 2nd pts | 12/21 | 20/35 | 32/56 | |
| % 2nd pts | 57% | 57% | 57% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 5 | 2 | 7 | |
| Converted | 5/9 | 2/7 | 7/16 | |
| Converted % | 56% | 29% | 44% | |
| Conceded | 1 | 3 | 4 | |
| Saved | 0/1 | 3/3 | 3 | |
| Saved % | 0% | 100% | 50% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
Head 2 Head
LLWLWWWLWL
WWLWLLWWLW Tennis Scores in Rome
- Alexander ZverevZverev – Hugo DellienDellien (6-2 6-2) – See score progression
- Roberto Bautista AgutBautista Agut – Christian GarinGarin (7-65 6-3) – See score progression
- Aslan KaratsevKaratsev – Daniil MedvedevMedvedev (6-2 6-4) – See score progression
- Andrey RublevRublev – Jan-Lennard StruffStruff (6-77 6-1 6-4) – See score progression
- Denis ShapovalovShapovalov – Stefano TravagliaTravaglia (7-62 6-3) – See score progression
- Dominic ThiemThiem – Marton FucsovicsFucsovics (3-6 7-65 6-0) – See score progression
- Alejandro Davidovich FokinaDavidovich Fokina – Cameron NorrieNorrie (6-2 6-3) – See score progression
- Federico DelbonisDelbonis – David GoffinGoffin (6-2 6-1) – See score progression
- Matteo BerrettiniBerrettini – John MillmanMillman (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
- Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas – Marin CilicCilic (7-5 6-2) – See score progression
- Lorenzo SonegoSonego – Gianluca MagerMager (6-4 6-4) – See score progression
- Rafael NadalNadal – Jannik SinnerSinner (7-5 6-4) – See score progression
- Felix Auger AliassimeAuger Aliassime – Diego Sebastian SchwartzmanSebastian Schwartzman (6-1 6-3) – See score progression
- Reilly OpelkaOpelka – Lorenzo MusettiMusetti (6-4 6-4) – See score progression
- Kei NishikoriNishikori – Pablo Carreno-BustaCarreno-Busta (w/o) – See score progression
- Novak DjokovicDjokovic – Taylor Harry FritzHarry Fritz (6-3 7-65) – See score progression
- Denis ShapovalovShapovalov – Stefano TravagliaTravaglia (7-6(2) 6-3) – See score progression
- Rafael NadalNadal – Jannik SinnerSinner (7-5 6-4) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Roberto Bautista AgutBautista Agut – Andrey RublevRublev (3-3) – H2H and prediction
- Novak DjokovicDjokovic – Alejandro Davidovich FokinaDavidovich Fokina (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Dominic ThiemThiem – Lorenzo SonegoSonego (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Alexander ZverevZverev – Kei NishikoriNishikori (3-1) – H2H and prediction
- Reilly OpelkaOpelka – Aslan KaratsevKaratsev (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Matteo BerrettiniBerrettini – Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas (0-2) – H2H and prediction
- Denis ShapovalovShapovalov – Rafael NadalNadal (1-2) – H2H and prediction
- Felix Auger AliassimeAuger Aliassime – Federico DelbonisDelbonis (0-0) – H2H and prediction
