Ashleigh Barty and Aryna Sabalenka will clash against each other in the final of the Mutua Madrid Open for the 8th time of their career. They are scheduled to play on Saturday at 6:30 pm on MANOLO SANTANA STADIUM. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and the prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Ashleigh Barty who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Ashleigh Barty is the pick to win this match.
Ashleigh Barty -> 1.76
Aryna Sabalenka -> 2.16
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Prediction and head to head Ashleigh Barty vs. Aryna Sabalenka
This will be the 8th time that Ashleigh Barty and Aryna Sabalenka clash against each other. The head to head is 4-3 for Barty (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on clay.
The last time that they squared off, Barty won 3-6 6-0 6-3 in the final in Stuttgart back in April 2021.
Highlights Ashleigh Barty vs Aryna Sabalenka – Stuttgart 25-April-2021
Ashleigh Barty
Currently world no. 1 Ashleigh reached the final after defeating Shelby Rogers 6-2 6-1, Tamara Zidansek 6-4 1-6 6-3, Iga Swiatek 7-5 6-4, Petra Kvitova 6-1 3-6 6-3 and Paula Badosa Gibert 6-4 6-3.
In the semifinal, Barty had a good straight sets win against Badosa (6-4 6-3). During the match Barty scored 66 points vs Badosa’s 52. Barty was exceptionally aggressive to blast 26 winners.
Regarding the service games, Barty struck 6 aces and she committed only 2 double faults. Overall, Ashleigh Barty was very effective on serve to win 74% (26/35) of her 1st serve and 60% (15/25) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent her to concede the serve once. Ashleigh broke Badosa 3 times after converting 50% of her break points (3/6).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Barty started her run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, she has surrendered 2 set in this tournament to win 55% of the points she played.
Barty has a superlative record in the last 10 years having won 75% of her matches (268-91). 11-1 on clay in 2021. In connection with her performance on the same surface of this event, Barty has a 56-23 match record in the last years on clay.
Her best result of the year was winning the title in in Melbourne where she overcame Garbine Muguruza in the final 7-6(3) 6-4 and in in Miami where she beat Bianca Vanessa Andreescu in the final 6-3 4-0 ret. and in in Stuttgart where she beat Aryna Sabalenka in the final 3-6 6-0 6-3.
The Australian has a 25-3 win-loss record in 2021, 11-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Madrid
Previously, her best result was reaching the quarter in 2019. See her history.
Aryna Sabalenka
Ranked no. 7 (career high), Aryna reached the final after defeating Vera Zvonareva 6-1 6-2, Daria Kasatkina 6-3 6-3, Jessica Pegula 6-1 6-2, Elise Mertens 6-1 4-0 ret. and Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova 6-2 6-3.
In the semifinal, The Belarussian had a good straight sets win against Pavlyuchenkova (6-2 6-3). During the match Sabalenka scored 56 points vs Pavlyuchenkova’s 37. The Belarussian was very aggressive to blast 20 winners.
Talking about serving, Sabalenka blasted 4 aces and she committed only 2 double faults. Aryna Sabalenka lost the serve once and she saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Sabalenka put 60% of her first serves in, winning 69% (20/29) of the points behind her 1st serve and 74% (14/19) on the 2nd serve. The Belarussian broke Pavlyuchenkova 4 times after converting 80% of her break points (4/5).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Sabalenka started her run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, she hasn’t lost yet a set in this event to win 61% of the points she played.
Her best result of the season was winning the title in in Abu Dhabi where she beat Veronika Kudermetova in the final 6-2 6-2.
Sabalenka has a 23-6 win-loss record in 2021, 9-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Barty | Sabalenka |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 5 | 5 |
| Tot Set | 12 | 11 |
| Tot Games | 107 | 76 |
| Pts | 371-307 | 294-186 |
| Total Points | 678 | 480 |
| Winners | 151 | 104 |
| %Winners | 41% | 35% |
Both Barty and Sabalenka played 5 matches. At the moment, Ashleigh Barty surrendered 2 sets while Aryna Sabalenka hasn’t surrendered a set so far. Barty has played 1 set more than Sabalenka (12 vs 11). Therefore, Barty played 31 games more than Sabalenka. The Australian scored 151 winners (41% of the total points). On the other side, The Belarussian fired 104 winners (35%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Barty | Sabalenka |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 35 | 18 |
| Avg per match | 7 | 3.6 |
| 1st in | 204/352 | 140/252 |
| %1st in | 58% | 56% |
| 1st pts | 151/204 | 104/140 |
| %1st pts | 74% | 74% |
| 2nd pts | 84/148 | 67/112 |
| %2nd pts | 57% | 60% |
Barty made 35 aces (7 per match). Sabalenka made 18 aces (3.6 per match). Barty won 74% points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 57% of the points. On the other side, Sabalenka won 74% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 60% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Barty | Sabalenka |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 16 | 21 |
| Converted | 16/39 | 21/33 |
| % Converted | 41% | 64% |
| Conceded | 30 | 13 |
| Saved | 24 | 10 |
| % Saved | 80% | 77% |
| Times Broken | 6 | 3 |
The Australian broke her opponents 16 times with a 41% conversion rate. Ashleigh conceded her serve 6 times and she saved 80% of the break points that she conceded. The Belarussian broke her opponents 21 times with a 64% conversion rate. Aryna conceded her serve 3 times and she saved 77% of the break points that she conceded.
| Barty | |||||||
| R1 Rogers |
R2 Zidansek |
R3 Swiatek |
1/4 Kvitova |
1/2 Badosa |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 6-1 | 6-4 1-6 6-3 | 7-5 6-4 | 6-1 3-6 6-3 | 6-4 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 12 | |
| Tot Games | 15 | 26 | 22 | 25 | 19 | 107 | |
| pts | 57-29 | 90-88 | 73-63 | 85-75 | 66-52 | 371-307 | |
| Total points | 86 | 178 | 136 | 160 | 118 | 678 | |
| Winners | 27 | 32 | 33 | 33 | 26 | 151 | |
| %Winners | 47% | 36% | 45% | 39% | 39% | 41% | |
| SERVE | |||||||
| Aces | 8 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 35 | |
| Double Faults | 0 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 | |
| 1st in | 29/38 | 47/93 | 41/77 | 52/84 | 35/60 | 204/352 | |
| % 1st in | 76% | 51% | 53% | 62% | 58% | 58% | |
| 1st pts | 27/29 | 32/47 | 33/41 | 33/52 | 26/35 | 151/204 | |
| % 1st pts | 93% | 68% | 80% | 63% | 74% | 74% | |
| 2nd pts | 5/9 | 27/46 | 17/36 | 20/32 | 15/25 | 84/148 | |
| % 2nd pts | 56% | 59% | 47% | 63% | 60% | 57% | |
| Breaks | |||||||
| Won | 4 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 16 | |
| Converted | 4/10 | 2/8 | 3/3 | 4/12 | 3/6 | 16/39 | |
| Converted % | 40% | 25% | 100% | 33% | 50% | 41% | |
| Conceded | 0 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 30 | |
| Saved | 0/0 | 9/11 | 6/7 | 5/7 | 4/5 | 24 | |
| Saved % | – | 82% | 86% | 71% | 80% | 64% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | |
| Sabalenka | |||||||
| R1 Zvonareva |
R2 Kasatkina |
R3 Pegula |
1/4 Mertens |
1/2 Pavlyuchenkova |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-1 6-2 | 6-3 6-3 | 6-1 6-2 | 6-1 4-0 ret. | 6-2 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | |
| Tot Games | 15 | 18 | 15 | 11 | 17 | 76 | |
| pts | 63-37 | 73-54 | 55-32 | 47-26 | 56-37 | 294-186 | |
| Total points | 100 | 127 | 87 | 73 | 93 | 480 | |
| Winners | 18 | 27 | 24 | 15 | 20 | 104 | |
| %Winners | 29% | 37% | 44% | 32% | 36% | 35% | |
| SERVE | |||||||
| Aces | 3 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 18 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 16 | |
| 1st in | 30/56 | 36/64 | 28/46 | 17/38 | 29/48 | 140/252 | |
| % 1st in | 54% | 56% | 61% | 45% | 60% | 56% | |
| 1st pts | 18/30 | 27/36 | 24/28 | 15/17 | 20/29 | 104/140 | |
| % 1st pts | 60% | 75% | 86% | 88% | 69% | 74% | |
| 2nd pts | 18/26 | 14/28 | 9/18 | 12/21 | 14/19 | 67/112 | |
| % 2nd pts | 69% | 50% | 50% | 57% | 74% | 60% | |
| Breaks | |||||||
| Won | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 21 | |
| Converted | 5/9 | 4/10 | 4/5 | 4/4 | 4/5 | 21/33 | |
| Converted % | 56% | 40% | 80% | 100% | 80% | 64% | |
| Conceded | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 13 | |
| Saved | 1/2 | 3/4 | 1/1 | 3/3 | 2/3 | 10 | |
| Saved % | 50% | 75% | 100% | 100% | 67% | 78% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
Head 2 Head
WWWWWLWLLW Upcoming matches in the draw
- Ashleigh BartyBarty – Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka (4-3) – H2H and prediction
