Aryna Sabalenka and Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova will play each other in the semifinal of the Mutua Madrid Open for the 2nd time of their career. They are scheduled to compete on Thursday at 8:30 pm on MANOLO SANTANA STADIUM. Here you can find the head to head analysis and the prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Aryna Sabalenka who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Aryna Sabalenka is the pick to win this match.
Aryna Sabalenka -> 1.26
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova -> 4.2
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Prediction and head to head Aryna Sabalenka vs. Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova
This will be the 2nd time that Aryna Sabalenka and Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova fight against each other. The head to head is 1-0 for Pavlyuchenkova (see full H2H stats), but they have never competed against each other on clay.
The last time that they fought against each other, Pavlyuchenkova won 3-6 6-3 7-5 in the 1st round in Toronto back in 2019.
Aryna Sabalenka
Ranked no. 7 (career high), the Belarussian got to the semifinal after defeating Vera Zvonareva 6-1 6-2, Daria Kasatkina 6-3 6-3, Jessica Pegula 6-1 6-2 and Elise Mertens 6-1 4-0 ret..
In the quarter, The Belarussian had a good straight sets win against Mertens (6-1 4-0 ret.). During the match Sabalenka scored 47 points vs Mertens’s 26. Sabalenka was pretty aggressive to blast 15 winners.
Talking about the service games, Sabalenka blasted 2 aces and she committed only 2 double faults. Aryna Sabalenka was very efficient on serve to win 88% (15/17) of her 1st serve and 57% (12/21) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Aryna was clinical in her return game without wasting any break point and break Mertens 4 times.
Overall Performance in this tournament
Sabalenka started her run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, she hasn’t surrendered yet a set in this competition to win 61% of the points she played.
Sabalenka has a solid match record in the last 6 years having won 66% of her matches (207-106). 8-1 on clay in 2021. Talking about her performance on the same surface of this tournament, Sabalenka has a 34-25 win-loss record in the last 6 years on clay.
Her best result of the current season was conquering the title in in Abu Dhabi where she defeated Veronika Kudermetova in the final 6-2 6-2.
The Belarussian has a 22-6 win-loss record in 2021, 8-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Madrid
Previously, her best result was reaching the 1st round in 2018 and 2019. See her history.
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova
Ranked no. 41, Pavlyuchenkova reached the semifinal after beating Madison Keys 7-5 6-2, Karolina Pliskova 6-0 7-5, Jennifer Brady 7-5 6-78 6-3 and Karolina Muchova 7-64 7-62.
In the quarter, Anastasia had a good straight sets win against Muchova (7-64 7-62). During the match Pavlyuchenkova scored 89 points vs Muchova’s 76. The Russian was exceptionally aggressive to blast 45 winners.
Talking about serving, Pavlyuchenkova was unable to score even 1 ace for the entire match and she committed only 2 double faults. Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova lost the serve 4 times and she saved 7 break points. Furthermore, Pavlyuchenkova put 76% of her first serves in, winning 64% (45/70) of the points behind her 1st serve and 45% (10/22) on the 2nd serve. The Russian was clinical in her return game without wasting any break point and break Muchova 4 times.
Overall Performance in this tournament
Pavlyuchenkova started her run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, she has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 55% of the points she played.
Pavlyuchenkova has a 9-8 win-loss record in 2021, 4-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Sabalenka | Pavlyuchenkova |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 4 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 9 | 9 |
| Tot Games | 59 | 98 |
| Pts | 238-149 | 355-290 |
| Total Points | 387 | 645 |
| Winners | 84 | 158 |
| %Winners | 35% | 45% |
Both Sabalenka and Pavlyuchenkova played 4 matches. At the moment, Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova lost 1 set while Aryna Sabalenka hasn’t conceded a set so far. Talking about their workload, Sabalenka and Pavlyuchenkova have played the same amount of sets 9. However, Sabalenka played 39 games less than Pavlyuchenkova. Aryna scored 84 winners (35% of the total points). On the other side, Pavlyuchenkova struck 158 winners (45%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Sabalenka | Pavlyuchenkova |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 14 | 5 |
| Avg per match | 3.5 | 1.3 |
| 1st in | 111/204 | 222/323 |
| %1st in | 54% | 69% |
| 1st pts | 84/111 | 158/222 |
| %1st pts | 76% | 71% |
| 2nd pts | 53/93 | 47/101 |
| %2nd pts | 57% | 47% |
Sabalenka blasted 14 aces (3.5 per match). Pavlyuchenkova made 5 aces (1.3 per match). Sabalenka won 76% points behind her first serve. She was rock solid on her second serve to win 57% of the points. On the other side, Pavlyuchenkova won 71% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 47% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Sabalenka | Pavlyuchenkova |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 17 | 19 |
| Converted | 17/28 | 19/32 |
| % Converted | 61% | 59% |
| Conceded | 10 | 26 |
| Saved | 8 | 16 |
| % Saved | 80% | 62% |
| Times Broken | 2 | 10 |
The Belarussian broke her opponents 17 times with a 61% conversion rate. Sabalenka dropped her serve twice and she saved 80% of the break points that she conceded. The Russian broke her opponents 19 times with a 59% conversion rate. The Russian conceded her serve 10 times and she saved 62% of the break points that she conceded.
| Sabalenka | ||||||
| R1 Zvonareva |
R2 Kasatkina |
R3 Pegula |
1/4 Mertens |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-1 6-2 | 6-3 6-3 | 6-1 6-2 | 6-1 4-0 ret. | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | |
| Tot Games | 15 | 18 | 15 | 11 | 59 | |
| pts | 63-37 | 73-54 | 55-32 | 47-26 | 238-149 | |
| Total points | 100 | 127 | 87 | 73 | 387 | |
| Winners | 18 | 27 | 24 | 15 | 84 | |
| %Winners | 29% | 37% | 44% | 32% | 35% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 3 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 14 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 14 | |
| 1st in | 30/56 | 36/64 | 28/46 | 17/38 | 111/204 | |
| % 1st in | 54% | 56% | 61% | 45% | 54% | |
| 1st pts | 18/30 | 27/36 | 24/28 | 15/17 | 84/111 | |
| % 1st pts | 60% | 75% | 86% | 88% | 76% | |
| 2nd pts | 18/26 | 14/28 | 9/18 | 12/21 | 53/93 | |
| % 2nd pts | 69% | 50% | 50% | 57% | 57% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 17 | |
| Converted | 5/9 | 4/10 | 4/5 | 4/4 | 17/28 | |
| Converted % | 56% | 40% | 80% | 100% | 61% | |
| Conceded | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 10 | |
| Saved | 1/2 | 3/4 | 1/1 | 3/3 | 8 | |
| Saved % | 50% | 75% | 100% | 100% | 81% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| Pavlyuchenkova | ||||||
| R1 Keys |
R2 Pliskova |
R3 Brady |
1/4 Muchova |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-5 6-2 | 6-0 7-5 | 7-5 6-78 6-3 | 7-64 7-62 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 | |
| Tot Games | 20 | 18 | 34 | 26 | 98 | |
| pts | 73-59 | 67-43 | 126-112 | 89-76 | 355-290 | |
| Total points | 132 | 110 | 238 | 165 | 645 | |
| Winners | 28 | 34 | 51 | 45 | 158 | |
| %Winners | 38% | 51% | 40% | 51% | 45% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5 | |
| Double Faults | 0 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 11 | |
| 1st in | 35/69 | 47/57 | 70/105 | 70/92 | 222/323 | |
| % 1st in | 51% | 82% | 67% | 76% | 69% | |
| 1st pts | 28/35 | 34/47 | 51/70 | 45/70 | 158/222 | |
| % 1st pts | 80% | 72% | 73% | 64% | 71% | |
| 2nd pts | 16/34 | 4/10 | 17/35 | 10/22 | 47/101 | |
| % 2nd pts | 47% | 40% | 49% | 45% | 47% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 4 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 19 | |
| Converted | 4/9 | 5/7 | 6/12 | 4/4 | 19/32 | |
| Converted % | 44% | 71% | 50% | 100% | 59% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 26 | |
| Saved | 3/4 | 4/5 | 2/6 | 7/11 | 16 | |
| Saved % | 75% | 80% | 33% | 64% | 63% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 10 | |
Head 2 Head
WWLWWWWWWW
LWWLWWWLLW Tennis Scores in Madrid
- Paula Badosa GibertBadosa Gibert – Belinda BencicBencic (6-4 7-5) – See score progression
- Anastasia PavlyuchenkovaPavlyuchenkova – Karolina MuchovaMuchova (7-64 7-62) – See score progression
- Ashleigh BartyBarty – Petra KvitovaKvitova (6-1 3-6 6-3) – See score progression
- Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Elise MertensMertens (6-1 4-0 ret.) – See score progression
- Barbora Krejcikova/Katerina SiniakovaKrejcikova/Katerina Siniakova – Yifan Xu/Shuai ZhangXu/Shuai Zhang (6-1 6-0) – See score progression
- Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Elise MertensMertens (6-1 4-0 ret.) – See score progression
- Anastasia PavlyuchenkovaPavlyuchenkova – Karolina MuchovaMuchova (7-6(4) 7-6(2)) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Ashleigh BartyBarty – Paula Badosa GibertBadosa Gibert (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Anastasia PavlyuchenkovaPavlyuchenkova (0-1) – H2H and prediction
