H2H, PREDICTION Rafael Nadal vs Alexei Popyrin | Madrid odds, preview, pick

PREVIEW. Madrid. Nadal and Popyrin will play each other in the 3rd round of the Mutua Madrid Open. See the prediction, H2H stats, odds, and preview of their upcoming match

By
Mark Hall
-
Prediction and head to head Rafael Nadal vs. Alexei Popyrin

Rafael Nadal and Alexei Popyrin will fight against each other in the 3rd round of the Mutua Madrid Open for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Thursday at 3:00 pm on MANOLO SANTANA STADIUM. Here you can find the head to head analysis and the prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Rafael Nadal who should win in 2 sets.

See updated oddsAs per the initial odds, Rafael Nadal is the pick to win this match.
Rafael Nadal -> 1.073
Alexei Popyrin -> 10

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See Updated Draw

Prediction and head to head Rafael Nadal vs. Alexei Popyrin

There is no head to head record between Rafael Nadal and Alexei Popyrin since this will be the first time that they will face off in the main tour.

Rafael Nadal

Ranked no. 2, Rafael got to the 3rd round after beating Carlos Alcaraz Garfia 6-1 6-2.

In the 2nd round, The Spaniard had a good straight sets win against Alcaraz Garfia (6-1 6-2). During the match Nadal scored 56 points vs Alcaraz Garfia’s 27. Nadal was extremely aggressive to blast 21 winners.

Regarding the service games, Nadal scored just 1 ace during the match and he committed only 3 double faults. Overall, Rafael Nadal was extremely efficient on serve to win 81% (21/26) of his 1st serve and 58% (11/19) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Rafael broke Alcaraz Garfia 5 times after converting 71% of his break points (5/7).

Nadal has a great match record in the last 10 years having won 84% of his matches (475-90). 8-1 on clay in 2021. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Nadal has a 222-23 record in the last years on clay.

His best result of the year was conquering the title in in Barcelona where he overcame Stefanos Tsitsipas in the final 6-4 6-7(6) 7-5.

Rafael has a 12-2 win-loss record in 2021, 8-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Madrid

Previously, he won this tournament 5 times in 2005, 2010, 2013, 2014 and 2017. See his history.

Nadal
Madrid
Nadal's Record

Alexei Popyrin

Ranked no. 76 (career high), Popyrin got to the 3rd round after beating Federico Coria 6-74 6-4 6-3, Arthur Cazaux 7-5 7-60, Jan-Lennard Struff 6-3 7-64 and Jannik Sinner 7-65 6-2.

In the 2nd round, The Australian had a good straight sets win against Sinner (7-65 6-2). During the match Popyrin scored 76 points vs Sinner’s 65. Alexei was quite aggressive to blast 33 winners.

Talking about serving, Popyrin made 8 aces and he committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Alexei Popyrin lost the serve twice and he saved 3 break points. Furthermore, Popyrin put 59% of his first serves in, winning 75% (33/44) of the points behind his 1st serve and 40% (12/30) on the 2nd serve. Alexei broke Sinner 4 times after converting 67% of his break points (4/6).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Alexei started his run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, he has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 52% of the points he played.

His best result of the current year was conquering the title in in Singapore where he overcame Alexander Bublik in the final 4-6 6-0 6-2.

Alexei has a 19-7 win-loss record in 2021, 8-3 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Popyrin
Madrid
Popyrin's Record

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

R.Nadal
A.Popyrin
1h:17
1h:17
Time on court​
!
6h:36
6h:36
1h:17
1h:17
Last match​
1h:34
1h:34
1
1
Match played
!
4
4
15
15
Games Played​
100
100
2
2
Set played​​
9
9
56
56
Total points​
338
338
56
56
Avg point​
84.5
84.5
21
21
Winners
157
157
21
21
Avg Winners​
39.3
39.3
38%
38%
Ratio winners
46%
46%
-- Serve --
1
1
Aces
32
32
1
1
Avg Aces
8
8
3
3
Double Faults
11
11
3
3
Avg Double Faults
2.8
2.8
21/26
21/26
1st won total​
157/210
157/210
!
81%
81%
1st won %
!
75%
75%
11/19
11/19
2nd won total​
65/133
65/133
58%
58%
2nd won %
49%
49%
-- Break Points --
5/7
5/7
BP won
13/28
13/28
5/7
5/7
Avg BP won
3.3/7
3.3/7
!
71%
71%
Won
46%
46%
3
3
Conceded
25
25
3
3
Avg Conceded
6.3
6.3
1
1
Broken
6
6
1
1
Avg Broken
1.5
1.5
2
2
Saved
19
19
See Allstats

Matches, sets, games and points

Points Nadal Popyrin
Match played 1 4
Tot Set 2 9
Tot Games 15 100
Pts 56-27 338-311
Total Points 83 649
Winners 21 157
%Winners 38% 46%

Nadal played 1 match while Popyrin competed in 4 matches. Popyrin started his run from the qualifications while Nadal had a direct access to the main draw. At the moment, Alexei Popyrin dropped 1 set while Rafael Nadal hasn’t dropped a set so far. Nadal has played 7 set(s) less than Popyrin (2 vs 9). Therefore, Nadal played 85 games less than Popyrin. Rafael scored 21 winners (38% of the total points). On the other side, Alexei made 157 winners (46%).

Serve Performance

Serve Nadal Popyrin
Aces 1 32
Avg per match 1 8
1st in 26/45 210/343
%1st in 58% 61%
1st pts 21/26 157/210
%1st pts 81% 75%
2nd pts 11/19 65/133
%2nd pts 58% 49%

Nadal scored 1 ace . Popyrin also made 32 aces (8 per match). Nadal won 81% points behind his first serve. He quite strong on his second serve to win 58% of the points. On the other side, Popyrin won 75% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 49% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks Nadal Popyrin
Won 5 13
Converted 5/7 13/28
% Converted 71% 46%
Conceded 3 25
Saved 2 19
% Saved 67% 76%
Times Broken 1 6

The Spaniard broke his opponent 5 times with a 71% conversion rate. Nadal dropped his serve once and he saved 67% of the break points that he conceded. Popyrin broke his opponents 13 times with a 46% conversion rate. Popyrin conceded his serve 6 times and he saved 76% of the break points that he conceded.

Nadal
R2
Alcaraz		 Total
Score 6-1 6-2
Tot Set 2 2
Tot Games 15 15
pts 56-27 56-27
Total points 83 83
Winners 21 21
%Winners 38% 38%
SERVE
Aces 1 1
Double Faults 3 3
1st in 26/45 26/45
% 1st in 58% 58%
1st pts 21/26 21/26
% 1st pts 81% 81%
2nd pts 11/19 11/19
% 2nd pts 58% 58%
Breaks
Won 5 5
Converted 5/7 5/7
Converted % 71% 71%
Conceded 3 3
Saved 2/3 2
Saved % 67% 67%
Times Broken 1 1
Popyrin
Q1
Coria		 Q3
Cazaux		 R1
Struff		 R2
Sinner		 Total
Score 6-74 6-4 6-3 7-5 7-60 6-3 7-64 7-65 6-2
Tot Set 3 2 2 2 9
Tot Games 32 25 22 21 100
pts 103-104 79-72 80-70 76-65 338-311
Total points 207 151 150 141 649
Winners 55 34 35 33 157
%Winners 53% 43% 44% 43% 46%
SERVE
Aces 6 4 14 8 32
Double Faults 5 1 4 1 11
1st in 73/116 44/74 49/79 44/74 210/343
% 1st in 63% 59% 62% 59% 61%
1st pts 55/73 34/44 35/49 33/44 157/210
% 1st pts 75% 77% 71% 75% 75%
2nd pts 19/43 18/30 16/30 12/30 65/133
% 2nd pts 44% 60% 53% 40% 49%
Breaks
Won 4 2 3 4 13
Converted 4/9 2/7 3/6 4/6 13/28
Converted % 44% 29% 50% 67% 46%
Conceded 12 1 7 5 25
Saved 11/12 0/1 5/7 3/5 19
Saved % 92% 0% 71% 60% 223%
Times Broken 1 1 2 2 6

Head 2 Head

Rafael Nadal
  • 22Slam
  • 92Main
  • 2Chall
  • 0Minor
Alexei Popyrin
  • 0Slam
  • 3Main
  • 2Chall
  • 1Minor

Rafael
Nadal

2:0

Alexei
Popyrin

Rank

153

High

1

2Clay0

Rank

24

High

23

Win Loss
Nadal
LLWLWWWWLL
Popyrin
LWWLLWLWWL
2024 2023 2022
12 - 7
28 - 21
2-1
Hard
17-8
0-0
I Hard
2-2
10-6
Clay
4-8
0-0
Grass
5-3

Tennis Scores in Madrid

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Upcoming matches in the draw
Nadal
Rafael Nadal
More Stats
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Popyrin Alexei Popyrin