Aryna Sabalenka and Jessica Pegula will square off in the 3rd round of the Mutua Madrid Open for the 3rd time of their career. They are scheduled to play on Tuesday at 3:00 pm on ARANTXA SANCHEZ STADIUM. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Aryna Sabalenka who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Aryna Sabalenka is the pick to win this match.
Aryna Sabalenka -> 1.27
Jessica Pegula -> 4.1
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Prediction and head to head Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula
This will be the 3rd time that Aryna Sabalenka and Jessica Pegula fight against each other. The head to head is 1-1 (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on clay.
The last time that they competed against each other, Sabalenka won 6-3 6-1 in the 1st round in at the French Open back in 2020.
Aryna Sabalenka
Ranked no. 7 (career high), Sabalenka got to the 3rd round after beating Vera Zvonareva 6-1 6-2 and Daria Kasatkina 6-3 6-3.
In the 2nd round, Sabalenka had a good straight sets win against Kasatkina (6-3 6-3). During the match Sabalenka scored 73 points vs Kasatkina’s 54. The Belarussian was extremely aggressive to blast 27 winners.
Talking about the service games, Sabalenka scored just 1 ace throughout the encounter and she committed only 5 double faults. Aryna Sabalenka lost the serve once and she saved 3 break points. Furthermore, Sabalenka put 56% of her first serves in, winning 75% (27/36) of the points behind her 1st serve and 50% (14/28) on the 2nd serve. Sabalenka broke Kasatkina 4 times after converting 40% of her break points (4/10).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Aryna started her run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, she hasn’t conceded yet a set in this event to win 60% of the points she played.
Sabalenka has a solid record in the last 6 years having won 66% of her matches (205-106). 6-1 on clay in 2021. Talking about her performance on the same surface of this competition, Sabalenka has a 32-25 match record in the last 6 years on clay.
Her best result of the year was conquering the title in in Abu Dhabi where she beat Veronika Kudermetova in the final 6-2 6-2.
Sabalenka has a 20-6 win-loss record in 2021, 6-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Madrid
Previously, her best result was reaching the 1st round in 2018 and 2019. See her history.
Jessica Pegula
Ranked no. 33, Pegula got to the 3rd round after beating Sorana Cirstea 7-65 6-3 and Victoria Azarenka w/o.
In the 2nd round, Pegula defeated Azarenka (w/o). During the match Pegula and Azarenka scored the same amount of points (). However, the world no. 7 was stronger during the important points and that was the most significant difference in the match.
Talking about serving, Pegula wasn’t able to score even 1 ace for the entire match and she was quite steady in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Jessica Pegula conceded no breaks for the entire match to put NAN% of her first serves in, win NAN% (/) of the points behind her 1st serve and NAN% (/) on the 2nd serve.
Pegula’s best result of the current year was getting to the semifinal in Doha.
Pegula has a 18-6 win-loss record in 2021, 1-0 on clay (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Sabalenka | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 1 |
| Tot Set | 4 | 2 |
| Tot Games | 33 | 22 |
| Pts | 136-91 | 68-57 |
| Total Points | 227 | 125 |
| Winners | 45 | 22 |
| %Winners | 33% | 32% |
Sabalenka played 2 matches while Pegula competed in 1 match. Both players have not surrendered a single set in this event so far. Sabalenka has played 2 sets more than Pegula (4 vs 2). Therefore, Sabalenka played 11 games more than Pegula. Sabalenka scored 45 winners (33% of the total points). On the other side, The American bagged 22 winners (32%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Sabalenka | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 4 | 5 |
| Avg per match | 2 | 5 |
| 1st in | 66/120 | 31/63 |
| %1st in | 55% | 49% |
| 1st pts | 45/66 | 22/31 |
| %1st pts | 68% | 71% |
| 2nd pts | 32/54 | 21/32 |
| %2nd pts | 59% | 66% |
Sabalenka struck 4 aces (2 per match). Pegula struck 5 aces . Sabalenka won 68% points on her first serve. She very solid her second serve to win 59% of the points. On the other side, Pegula won 71% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 66% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Sabalenka | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 9 | 3 |
| Converted | 9/19 | 3/4 |
| % Converted | 47% | 75% |
| Conceded | 6 | 4 |
| Saved | 4 | 2 |
| % Saved | 67% | 50% |
| Times Broken | 2 | 2 |
The Belarussian broke her opponents 9 times with a 47% conversion rate. Aryna conceded her serve twice and she saved 67% of the break points that she conceded. Jessica broke her opponent 3 times with a 75% conversion rate. Pegula conceded her serve twice and she saved 50% of the break points that she conceded.
| Sabalenka | ||||
| R1 Zvonareva |
R2 Kasatkina |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-1 6-2 | 6-3 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Tot Games | 15 | 18 | 33 | |
| pts | 63-37 | 73-54 | 136-91 | |
| Total points | 100 | 127 | 227 | |
| Winners | 18 | 27 | 45 | |
| %Winners | 29% | 37% | 33% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 3 | 1 | 4 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 5 | 7 | |
| 1st in | 30/56 | 36/64 | 66/120 | |
| % 1st in | 54% | 56% | 55% | |
| 1st pts | 18/30 | 27/36 | 45/66 | |
| % 1st pts | 60% | 75% | 68% | |
| 2nd pts | 18/26 | 14/28 | 32/54 | |
| % 2nd pts | 69% | 50% | 59% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 5 | 4 | 9 | |
| Converted | 5/9 | 4/10 | 9/19 | |
| Converted % | 56% | 40% | 47% | |
| Conceded | 2 | 4 | 6 | |
| Saved | 1/2 | 3/4 | 4 | |
| Saved % | 50% | 75% | 63% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Pegula | ||||
| R1 Cirstea |
R2 Azarenka |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-65 6-3 | w/o | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | – | 2 | |
| Tot Games | 22 | – | 22 | |
| pts | 68-57 | – | 68-57 | |
| Total points | 125 | – | 125 | |
| Winners | 22 | – | 22 | |
| %Winners | 32% | – | 32% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 5 | – | 5 | |
| Double Faults | 5 | – | 5 | |
| 1st in | 31/63 | – | 31/63 | |
| % 1st in | 49% | – | 49% | |
| 1st pts | 22/31 | – | 22/31 | |
| % 1st pts | 71% | – | 71% | |
| 2nd pts | 21/32 | – | 21/32 | |
| % 2nd pts | 66% | – | 66% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 3 | – | 3 | |
| Converted | 3/4 | – | 3/4 | |
| Converted % | 75% | – | 75% | |
| Conceded | 4 | – | 4 | |
| Saved | 2/4 | – | 2 | |
| Saved % | 50% | – | 25% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | – | 2 | |
Head 2 Head
WWWLWWWWWW
LWLWWLWWWW Tennis Scores in Madrid
- Petra KvitovaKvitova – Veronika KudermetovaKudermetova (6-3 4-6 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Belinda BencicBencic – Ons JabeurJabeur (7-62 4-3 ret.) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Ashleigh BartyBarty – Iga SwiatekSwiatek (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Paula Badosa GibertBadosa Gibert – Anastasija SevastovaSevastova (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Jessica PegulaPegula (1-1) – H2H and prediction
- Elise MertensMertens – Simona HalepHalep (1-4) – H2H and prediction
- Anastasia PavlyuchenkovaPavlyuchenkova – Jennifer BradyBrady (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Maria SakkariSakkari – Karolina MuchovaMuchova (1-0) – H2H and prediction
