H2H, PREDICTION Naomi Osaka vs Serena Williams | Australian Open odds, preview, pick

PREVIEW. Melbourne. Osaka and Williams will fight against each other in the semifinal of the Australian Open. See the prediction, H2H stats, odds, and preview of their next match

Prediction and head to head Naomi Osaka vs. Serena Williams

Naomi Osaka and Serena Williams will fight against each other in the semifinal of the Australian Open for the 4th time of their career. They are scheduled to compete on Thursday at 2 pm on Rod Laver Arena. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and the prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Naomi Osaka who should win in 3 sets.

See updated oddsAs per the initial odds, Naomi Osaka is the pick to win this match.
Naomi Osaka -> 1.74
Serena Williams -> 2.24

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Prediction and head to head Naomi Osaka vs. Serena Williams

This will be the 4th time that Naomi Osaka and Serena Williams clash against each other. The head to head is 2-1 for Osaka (see full H2H stats), 2-1 on hard.

The last time that they locked horns, Williams won 6-2 2-6 10-7 in the semifinal in Adelaide back in January 2021.

Naomi Osaka

Ranked no. 3, Osaka reached the semifinal after beating Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova 6-1 6-2, Caroline Garcia 6-2 6-3, Ons Jabeur 6-3 6-2, Garbine Muguruza 4-6 6-4 7-5 and Su-Wei Hsieh 6-2 6-2.

In the quarter, The Japanese had a good straight sets win against Hsieh (6-2 6-2). During the match Osaka scored 65 points vs Hsieh’s 44. Osaka was very aggressive to blast 23 winners.

Talking about the service games, Osaka managed to score 7 aces and she committed only 1 double fault. Naomi Osaka was exceptionally effective on serve to win 92% (23/25) of her 1st serve and 56% (15/27) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Naomi broke Hsieh 4 times after converting 33% of her break points (4/12).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Naomi has lost 1 set in this event to win 57% of the points she played.

Osaka has a solid match record in the last 8 years having won 66% of her matches (214-112). 8-0 on hard in 2021. Regarding her performance on the same surface of this event, Osaka has a 148-68 win-loss record in the last 8 years on hard.

The Japanese’s best result of the current year was reaching the semifinal in Melbourne.

Osaka has a 8-0 win-loss record in 2021, 8-0 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Last year at the Australian Open

Osaka lost in the 3rd round to Cori Gauff.

Serena Williams

Ranked no. 11, Williams reached the semifinal after defeating Laura Siegemund 6-1 6-1, Nina Stojanovic 6-3 6-0, Anastasia Potapova 7-65 6-2, Aryna Sabalenka 6-4 2-6 6-4 and Simona Halep 6-3 6-3.

In the quarter, The American had a good straight sets win against Halep (6-3 6-3). During the match Williams scored 65 points vs Halep’s 53. The American was pretty aggressive to blast 20 winners.

Talking about serving, Williams bagged 4 aces and she committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Serena Williams lost the serve 3 times and she saved 1 break points. Furthermore, Williams put 55% of her first serves in, winning 77% (20/26) of the points behind her 1st serve and 38% (8/21) on the 2nd serve. The American broke Halep 6 times after converting 46% of her break points (6/13).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The American has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 57% of the points she played.

The American’s best result of the current season was getting to the semifinal in Melbourne.

Serena has a 8-0 win-loss record in 2021, 8-0 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Last year at the Australian Open

Williams lost in the 3rd round to Qiang Wang.

H2H Performance in the tournament

Matches, sets, games and points

Points Osaka Williams
Match played 5 5
Tot Set 11 11
Tot Games 97 96
Pts 358-273 352-271
Total Points 631 623
Winners 132 136
%Winners 37% 39%

Both Osaka and Williams played 5 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Naomi Osaka conceded 1 set, while Serena Williams surrendered 1 set. Talking about their workload, Osaka and Williams have played the same amount of sets 11. However, Osaka played 1 game more than Williams. The Japanese scored 132 winners (37% of the total points). On the other side, The American fired 136 winners (39%).

Serve Performance

Serve Osaka Williams
Aces 38 32
Avg per match 7.6 6.4
1st in 168/313 172/304
%1st in 54% 57%
1st pts 132/168 136/172
%1st pts 79% 79%
2nd pts 79/145 56/132
%2nd pts 54% 42%

Osaka fired 38 aces (7.6 per match). Williams fired 32 aces (6.4 per match). Osaka won 79% points on her first serve. She pretty effective on her second serve to win 54% of the points. On the other side, Williams won 79% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 42% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks Osaka Williams
Won 21 25
Converted 21/47 25/48
% Converted 45% 52%
Conceded 20 31
Saved 14 20
% Saved 70% 65%
Times Broken 6 11

Osaka broke her opponents 21 times with a 45% conversion rate. The Japanese dropped her serve 6 times and she saved 70% of the break points that she conceded. Williams broke her opponents 25 times with a 52% conversion rate. Serena conceded her serve 11 times and she saved 65% of the break points that she conceded.

Osaka
R1
Pavlyuchenkova
R2
Garcia
R3
Jabeur
R4
Muguruza
1/4
Hsieh
Total
Score 6-1 6-2 6-2 6-3 6-3 6-2 4-6 6-4 7-5 6-2 6-2
Tot Set 2 2 2 3 2 11
Tot Games 15 17 17 32 16 97
pts 65-39 61-39 74-61 93-90 65-44 358-273
Total points 104 100 135 183 109 631
Winners 22 24 26 37 23 132
%Winners 34% 39% 35% 40% 35% 37%
SERVE
Aces 2 10 8 11 7 38
Double Faults 0 2 5 4 1 12
1st in 27/45 28/48 35/81 53/87 25/52 168/313
% 1st in 60% 58% 43% 61% 48% 54%
1st pts 22/27 24/28 26/35 37/53 23/25 132/168
% 1st pts 81% 86% 74% 70% 92% 79%
2nd pts 10/18 14/20 22/46 18/34 15/27 79/145
% 2nd pts 56% 70% 48% 53% 56% 54%
Breaks
Won 5 3 4 5 4 21
Converted 5/7 3/7 4/7 5/14 4/12 21/47
Converted % 71% 43% 57% 36% 33% 45%
Conceded 2 0 7 8 3 20
Saved 1/2 0/0 6/7 4/8 3/3 14
Saved % 50% 86% 50% 100% 57%
Times Broken 1 0 1 4 0 6
Williams
R1
Siegemund
R2
Stojanovic
R3
Potapova
R4
Sabalenka
1/4
Halep
Total
Score 6-1 6-1 6-3 6-0 7-65 6-2 6-4 2-6 6-4 6-3 6-3
Tot Set 2 2 2 3 2 11
Tot Games 14 15 21 28 18 96
pts 54-23 61-38 78-63 94-94 65-53 352-271
Total points 77 99 141 188 118 623
Winners 16 24 36 40 20 136
%Winners 30% 39% 46% 43% 31% 39%
SERVE
Aces 4 6 9 9 4 32
Double Faults 1 1 4 8 1 15
1st in 20/34 28/49 47/75 51/99 26/47 172/304
% 1st in 59% 57% 63% 52% 55% 57%
1st pts 16/20 24/28 36/47 40/51 20/26 136/172
% 1st pts 80% 86% 77% 78% 77% 79%
2nd pts 9/14 11/21 9/28 19/48 8/21 56/132
% 2nd pts 64% 52% 32% 40% 38% 42%
Breaks
Won 6 4 5 4 6 25
Converted 6/9 4/9 5/8 4/9 6/13 25/48
Converted % 67% 44% 63% 44% 46% 52%
Conceded 1 3 12 11 4 31
Saved 0/1 3/3 9/12 7/11 1/4 20
Saved % 0% 100% 75% 64% 25% 53%
Times Broken 1 0 3 4 3 11

Head 2 Head

Win Loss
Osaka
LWWLWWLWWL
Williams
2024 2023 2022
7 - 6
0 - 0
7-6
Hard
0-0

Tennis Scores at the Australian Open

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