Naomi Osaka and Serena Williams will fight against each other in the semifinal of the Australian Open for the 4^th time of their career. They are scheduled to compete on Thursday at 2 pm on Rod Laver Arena. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and the prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Naomi Osaka who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Naomi Osaka is the pick to win this match.
Naomi Osaka -> 1.74
Serena Williams -> 2.24

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Prediction and head to head Naomi Osaka vs. Serena Williams

This will be the 4^th time that Naomi Osaka and Serena Williams clash against each other. The head to head is 2-1 for Osaka (see full H2H stats), 2-1 on hard.

The last time that they locked horns, Williams won 6-2 2-6 10-7 in the semifinal in Adelaide back in January 2021.

Naomi Osaka

Ranked no. 3, Osaka reached the semifinal after beating Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova 6-1 6-2, Caroline Garcia 6-2 6-3, Ons Jabeur 6-3 6-2, Garbine Muguruza 4-6 6-4 7-5 and Su-Wei Hsieh 6-2 6-2.

In the quarter, The Japanese had a good straight sets win against Hsieh (6-2 6-2). During the match Osaka scored 65 points vs Hsieh’s 44. Osaka was very aggressive to blast 23 winners.

Talking about the service games, Osaka managed to score 7 aces and she committed only 1 double fault. Naomi Osaka was exceptionally effective on serve to win 92% (23/25) of her 1st serve and 56% (15/27) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Naomi broke Hsieh 4 times after converting 33% of her break points (4/12).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Naomi has lost 1 set in this event to win 57% of the points she played.

Osaka has a solid match record in the last 8 years having won 66% of her matches (214-112). 8-0 on hard in 2021. Regarding her performance on the same surface of this event, Osaka has a 148-68 win-loss record in the last 8 years on hard.

The Japanese’s best result of the current year was reaching the semifinal in Melbourne.

Osaka has a 8-0 win-loss record in 2021, 8-0 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Last year at the Australian Open

Osaka lost in the 3^rd round to Cori Gauff.

Serena Williams

Ranked no. 11, Williams reached the semifinal after defeating Laura Siegemund 6-1 6-1, Nina Stojanovic 6-3 6-0, Anastasia Potapova 7-6⁵ 6-2, Aryna Sabalenka 6-4 2-6 6-4 and Simona Halep 6-3 6-3.

In the quarter, The American had a good straight sets win against Halep (6-3 6-3). During the match Williams scored 65 points vs Halep’s 53. The American was pretty aggressive to blast 20 winners.

Talking about serving, Williams bagged 4 aces and she committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Serena Williams lost the serve 3 times and she saved 1 break points. Furthermore, Williams put 55% of her first serves in, winning 77% (20/26) of the points behind her 1st serve and 38% (8/21) on the 2nd serve. The American broke Halep 6 times after converting 46% of her break points (6/13).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The American has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 57% of the points she played.

The American’s best result of the current season was getting to the semifinal in Melbourne.

Serena has a 8-0 win-loss record in 2021, 8-0 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Last year at the Australian Open

Williams lost in the 3^rd round to Qiang Wang.

H2H Performance in the tournament

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Osaka	Williams
Match played	5	5
Tot Set	11	11
Tot Games	97	96
Pts	358-273	352-271
Total Points	631	623
Winners	132	136
%Winners	37%	39%

Both Osaka and Williams played 5 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Naomi Osaka conceded 1 set, while Serena Williams surrendered 1 set. Talking about their workload, Osaka and Williams have played the same amount of sets 11. However, Osaka played 1 game more than Williams. The Japanese scored 132 winners (37% of the total points). On the other side, The American fired 136 winners (39%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Osaka	Williams
Aces	38	32
Avg per match	7.6	6.4
1st in	168/313	172/304
%1st in	54%	57%
1st pts	132/168	136/172
%1st pts	79%	79%
2nd pts	79/145	56/132
%2nd pts	54%	42%

Osaka fired 38 aces (7.6 per match). Williams fired 32 aces (6.4 per match). Osaka won 79% points on her first serve. She pretty effective on her second serve to win 54% of the points. On the other side, Williams won 79% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 42% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Osaka	Williams
Won	21	25
Converted	21/47	25/48
% Converted	45%	52%
Conceded	20	31
Saved	14	20
% Saved	70%	65%
Times Broken	6	11

Osaka broke her opponents 21 times with a 45% conversion rate. The Japanese dropped her serve 6 times and she saved 70% of the break points that she conceded. Williams broke her opponents 25 times with a 52% conversion rate. Serena conceded her serve 11 times and she saved 65% of the break points that she conceded.

Osaka
	R1 Pavlyuchenkova	R2 Garcia	R3 Jabeur	R4 Muguruza	1/4 Hsieh	Total
Score	6-1 6-2	6-2 6-3	6-3 6-2	4-6 6-4 7-5	6-2 6-2
Tot Set	2	2	2	3	2	11
Tot Games	15	17	17	32	16	97
pts	65-39	61-39	74-61	93-90	65-44	358-273
Total points	104	100	135	183	109	631
Winners	22	24	26	37	23	132
%Winners	34%	39%	35%	40%	35%	37%
SERVE
Aces	2	10	8	11	7	38
Double Faults	0	2	5	4	1	12
1st in	27/45	28/48	35/81	53/87	25/52	168/313
% 1st in	60%	58%	43%	61%	48%	54%
1st pts	22/27	24/28	26/35	37/53	23/25	132/168
% 1st pts	81%	86%	74%	70%	92%	79%
2nd pts	10/18	14/20	22/46	18/34	15/27	79/145
% 2nd pts	56%	70%	48%	53%	56%	54%
Breaks
Won	5	3	4	5	4	21
Converted	5/7	3/7	4/7	5/14	4/12	21/47
Converted %	71%	43%	57%	36%	33%	45%
Conceded	2	0	7	8	3	20
Saved	1/2	0/0	6/7	4/8	3/3	14
Saved %	50%	–	86%	50%	100%	57%
Times Broken	1	0	1	4	0	6

Williams
	R1 Siegemund	R2 Stojanovic	R3 Potapova	R4 Sabalenka	1/4 Halep	Total
Score	6-1 6-1	6-3 6-0	7-65 6-2	6-4 2-6 6-4	6-3 6-3
Tot Set	2	2	2	3	2	11
Tot Games	14	15	21	28	18	96
pts	54-23	61-38	78-63	94-94	65-53	352-271
Total points	77	99	141	188	118	623
Winners	16	24	36	40	20	136
%Winners	30%	39%	46%	43%	31%	39%
SERVE
Aces	4	6	9	9	4	32
Double Faults	1	1	4	8	1	15
1st in	20/34	28/49	47/75	51/99	26/47	172/304
% 1st in	59%	57%	63%	52%	55%	57%
1st pts	16/20	24/28	36/47	40/51	20/26	136/172
% 1st pts	80%	86%	77%	78%	77%	79%
2nd pts	9/14	11/21	9/28	19/48	8/21	56/132
% 2nd pts	64%	52%	32%	40%	38%	42%
Breaks
Won	6	4	5	4	6	25
Converted	6/9	4/9	5/8	4/9	6/13	25/48
Converted %	67%	44%	63%	44%	46%	52%
Conceded	1	3	12	11	4	31
Saved	0/1	3/3	9/12	7/11	1/4	20
Saved %	0%	100%	75%	64%	25%	53%
Times Broken	1	0	3	4	3	11

Tennis Scores at the Australian Open

• Karolina MuchovaMuchova – Ashleigh BartyBarty (1-6 6-3 6-2) – See score progression
• Serena WilliamsWilliams – Simona HalepHalep (6-3 6-3) – See score progression
• Naomi OsakaOsaka – Su-Wei HsiehHsieh (6-2 6-2) – See score progression
• Camilo Ugo CarabelliUgo Carabelli – Hugo GrenierGrenier (6-7⁵ 6-4 6-2) – See score progression
• Karolina MuchovaMuchova – Ashleigh BartyBarty (1-6 6-3 6-2) – See score progression

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Jennifer BradyBrady – Jessica PegulaPegula (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Naomi OsakaOsaka – Serena WilliamsWilliams (2-1) – H2H and prediction