We have an interesting situation here. With Rafa still ranked no.5 it’s very important for the other big 4 to be ranked at least no.2.
In fact, playing Ferrer in the semifinal is much better than playing another big 4. This happens if you are seeded no.2, but if you are seeded no.3 it is very plausible that you need to beat two big four (maybe 3!) back to back to win a big tournament. Roger may lose this luxury.
How Murray can overtake Federer?
There are currently 1355pts between Roger and Andy, but Roger will drop 1000pts (as he won in IW last year) and Andy will lose only 10pts (as he lost in the R64 last year).
This means that the starting point will be Federer 8535pts (9535 – 1000), Murray 8170pts (8180-10). The difference will be only of 365pts.
So if Murray wins in Indian Wells he will get 1000pts and if Roger reaches the final he will get 600pts. Enough for the Scott to become world no.2.
If Murray can only reach the final, Federer will remain world no.2 if he reaches the semifinal. If Murray can’t get to the final, Federer will definitely hold his position.
Here the draw
