The Swiss Maestro consolidates his lead with his 2012 title in Cincinnati to have very good chances to maintain the world no.1 rank for the next couple of months.
HOW IS IT POSSIBLE?
US Open
Roger is 895pts ahead Nole (12.165 – 11.270 = 895).
Nole can’t add more points at the US Open as he won it in 2011.
So he can only lose 2000pts.
Last year Roger reached only the semi (720pts).
Even if Roger does not play the US Open he will definitely be ahead of Novak even if the Serb wins the US Open.
NEXT MAJOR TOURNAMENTS
Let’s assume that the 2012 US Open will have the same outcome as last year (that would be quite favourable for Nole), there will still be a 895pts gap.
Beijing or Tokyo
Unless Nole gets crazy and starts to play all the 250pts tournaments in September, he may play his first tournament after the US Open either in Tokyo or Beijing the 1st-10th of October (both are a 500ATP event). If Nole wins and Roger does not play, he will have additional 500pts that will be not enough to bridge an hypothetical 895pts gap.
Shanghai
In the following week, if everything goes right for Nole he could try to overtake Roger by winning the tournament.
Off course all these assumptions materialize in the improbable scenario that Roger has a disastrous 2 months spell starting from the US Open.
If Roger is going to either win or perform better than Nole at the US Open it will be game over.
Who is going to be world no.1 by the end of the year?
It is difficult to say.
It is very important for the Swiss to have a good US Open because he has a whopping 3.000 points to the defend at the end of the season as last year he won Basel (500pts), Paris (1000pts) and the World Tour Finals (1500pts). Nole will have to defend only 560pts as he reached the semis in Basel (180 pts), the quarters in Paris (180pts) and he got only (200pts) at the World Tour Finals.
We need to keep in mind that usually Federer has a brilliant year end also because most of the tournaments are on fast indoor courts.
So…Game On!
Current Ranking
| 1 | Roger Federer | 12.165 |
| 2 | Novak Djokovic | 11.270 |
| 3 | Rafael Nadal |
8.715 |
| 4 | Andy Murray | 7.290 |
| 5 | David Ferrer | 5.375 |
| 6 | Jo-Wilfried Tsonga |
4.835 |
| 7 | Tomas Berdych | 4.155 |
| 8 | Juan Martin Del Potro |
3.620 |
| 9 | Janko Tipsarevic | 3.285 |
| 10 | John Isner | 2.880 |
