Karl Poling and Sebastian Dominko will square off in the 1st round of the Sioux Falls Challenger for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Tuesday at 8:00 pm on Stadium. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Sebastian Dominko who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Sebastian Dominko is the pick to win this match.
Sebastian Dominko -> 1.28
Karl Poling -> 3.26
Here where top tennis events are broadcasted or streamed online (ATP, WTA).
At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.
Prediction and head to head Karl Poling vs. Sebastian Dominko
There is no head to head record between Karl Poling and Sebastian Dominko since this will be the first time that they will square off in the main tour.
Karl Poling
28 - 30win/loss
453
452
WWLLWLLLWL | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 28-30 | 21-20 | 3-3 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2025 | 33-34 | 13-17 | 12-9 | 8-7 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 22-15 | 17-10 | 0-1 | 5-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 10-6 | 6-4 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 453, Poling got to the 1st round after defeating Maxwell Exsted 6-3 6-2 and Patrick Zahraj 7-6(4) 7-6(7).
In the qualifications, Karl had a good straight sets win against Zahraj (7-64 7-67). During the match, Poling scored 95 points vs Zahraj’s 92. The American was exceptionally aggressive to blast 40 winners.
Regarding the service games, Poling scored just 1 ace throughout the match and he committed only 4 double faults. Karl Poling lost the serve 4 times and he saved 6 break points. Furthermore, Poling put 72% of his first serves in, winning 56% (40/72) of the points behind his 1st serve and 61% (17/28) on the 2nd serve. Poling broke Zahraj 4 times after converting 50% of his break points (4/8).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The American started his run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, he hasn’t conceded yet a set in this event to conquer 54% of the points he played.
ATP Sioux Falls Challenger - Karl Poling's projected path
Poling has a winning match record in the last 6 years having won 53% of his matches (112-101). 4-7 on indoor hard courts in 2026. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Poling has an aggregate23-23 win-loss record in the last 6 years on indoor hard courts.
Karl’s best result of the current year was reaching the final in M25 East Lansing.
The American has a composed 28-30 win-loss record in 2026, 4-7 on indoor hard courts (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Sioux Falls Challenger
The American has never competed in this tournament before.
Sebastian Dominko
25 - 8win/loss
554
554
WWLLWWWWWL | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 25-8 | 7-4 | 13-3 | 5-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2025 | 13-11 | 2-1 | 9-9 | 2-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 17-7 | 3-1 | 11-5 | 3-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 10-10 | 8-2 | 2-7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 10-10 | 3-5 | 7-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 554 (career-high), Dominko reached the 1st round after beating Justin Boulais 5-7 6-3 6-4 and Benjamin Willwerth 7-5 6-3.
In the qualifications, Dominko had a good straight sets win against Willwerth (7-5 6-3). During the match Dominko scored 71 points vs Willwerth’s 48. Sebastian was extremely aggressive to blast 30 winners.
About the serving games, Dominko blasted 10 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Sebastian Dominko was quite efficient on serve to win 100% (30/30) of his 1st serve and 74% (14/19) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Dominko broke Willwerth twice after converting 13% of his break points (2/16).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Slovenian started his run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, he has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 54% of the points he played.
ATP Sioux Falls Challenger - Sebastian Dominko's projected path
The Slovenian’s best result of the season was reaching the final in M25 Maribor and M25 Pardubice.
Dominko has a compiled 25-8 win-loss record in 2026, 5-1 on indoor hard courts (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Poling | Dominko |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 2 |
| Tot Set | 4 | 5 |
| Tot Games | 43 | 52 |
| Pts | 163-141 | 165-139 |
| Total Points | 304 | 304 |
| Winners | 66 | 78 |
| %Winners | 40% | 47% |
Both Poling and Dominko played 2 matches. Also both players started their run from the qualifications.At the moment, Sebastian Dominko lost 1 set while Karl Poling hasn’t conceded a set so far. Poling has played 1 set(s) less than Dominko (4 vs 5). Therefore, Poling played 9 games less than Dominko. Poling scored 66 winners (40% of the total points). On the other side, Dominko managed to score 78 winners (47%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Poling | Dominko |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 2 | 24 |
| Avg per match | 1 | 12 |
| 1st in | 106/153 | 90/146 |
| %1st in | 69% | 62% |
| 1st pts | 66/106 | 78/90 |
| %1st pts | 62% | 87% |
| 2nd pts | 30/47 | 33/56 |
| %2nd pts | 64% | 59% |
Poling blasted 2 aces (1 per match). Dominko bagged 24 aces (12 per match). Poling won 62% points on his first serve. He very solid his second serve to win 64% of the points. On the other side, Dominko won 87% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 59% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Poling | Dominko |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 7 | 4 |
| Converted | 7/20 | 4/20 |
| % Converted | 35% | 20% |
| Conceded | 13 | 4 |
| Saved | 9 | 3 |
| % Saved | 69% | 75% |
| Times Broken | 4 | 1 |
The American broke his opponents 7 times with a 35% conversion rate. Poling dropped his serve 4 times and he saved 69% of the break points that he conceded. Sebastian broke his opponents 4 times with a 20% conversion rate. Sebastian conceded his serve once and he saved 75% of the break points that he conceded.
| Poling | ||||
| Q1 Exsted |
Q3 Zahraj |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-2 | 7-64 7-67 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Tot Games | 17 | 26 | 43 | |
| pts | 68-49 | 95-92 | 163-141 | |
| Total points | 117 | 187 | 304 | |
| Winners | 26 | 40 | 66 | |
| %Winners | 38% | 42% | 40% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 4 | 5 | |
| 1st in | 34/53 | 72/100 | 106/153 | |
| % 1st in | 64% | 72% | 69% | |
| 1st pts | 26/34 | 40/72 | 66/106 | |
| % 1st pts | 76% | 56% | 62% | |
| 2nd pts | 13/19 | 17/28 | 30/47 | |
| % 2nd pts | 68% | 61% | 64% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 3 | 4 | 7 | |
| Converted | 3/12 | 4/8 | 7/20 | |
| Converted % | 25% | 50% | 35% | |
| Conceded | 3 | 10 | 13 | |
| Saved | 3/3 | 6/10 | 9 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 60% | 80% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 4 | 4 | |
| Dominko | ||||
| Q1 Boulais |
Q3 Willwerth |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 5-7 6-3 6-4 | 7-5 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 5 | |
| Tot Games | 31 | 21 | 52 | |
| pts | 94-91 | 71-48 | 165-139 | |
| Total points | 185 | 119 | 304 | |
| Winners | 48 | 30 | 78 | |
| %Winners | 51% | 42% | 47% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 14 | 10 | 24 | |
| Double Faults | 5 | 2 | 7 | |
| 1st in | 60/97 | 30/49 | 90/146 | |
| % 1st in | 62% | 61% | 62% | |
| 1st pts | 48/60 | 30/30 | 78/90 | |
| % 1st pts | 80% | 100% | 87% | |
| 2nd pts | 19/37 | 14/19 | 33/56 | |
| % 2nd pts | 51% | 74% | 59% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Converted | 2/4 | 2/16 | 4/20 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 13% | 20% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 0 | 4 | |
| Saved | 3/4 | 0/0 | 3 | |
| Saved % | 75% | – | 38% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
Head 2 Head
WWWWWWWWWW
WWWWWWWWWW Tennis Scores in Sioux Falls Challenger
- Dylan DietrichDietrich – Colton SmithSmith (6-3 7-5) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Kaylan BigunBigun – Andres MartinMartin (6-3 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Mees RottgeringRottgering – Alexis GalarneauGalarneau (6-3 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Daniel MilavskyMilavsky – Harry WendelkenWendelken (6-4 4-6 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Mitchell KruegerKrueger – Andres AndradeAndrade (1-2) – H2H and prediction
- Stefan KozlovKozlov – (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Jenson BrooksbyBrooksby – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Jeff WolfWolf – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Liam DraxlDraxl – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- James Kent TrotterKent Trotter – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
