Bernard Tomic and Pavel Kotov will face off in the semifinal of the Guangzhou Challenger for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Saturday at 10:30 pm on Center Court. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Pavel Kotov who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Pavel Kotov is the pick to win this match.
Pavel Kotov -> 1.7
Bernard Tomic -> 2.01
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At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.
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Prediction and head to head Bernard Tomic vs. Pavel Kotov
There is no head to head record between Bernard Tomic and Pavel Kotov since this will be the first time that they will face off in the main tour.
Bernard Tomic
28 - 22win/loss
185
17
WWWLWLWLWL | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 28-22 | 22-14 | 2-2 | 1-2 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| 2025 | 43-34 | 30-24 | 6-7 | 2-1 | 5-2 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 50-29 | 34-19 | 12-5 | 4-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 41-27 | 35-19 | 4-4 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 26-12 | 24-7 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 185, the Australian got to the semifinal after beating Yuta Kikuchi 6-0 6-2, Jake Delaney 6-3 6-2 and Alexandr Binda 6-3 6-4.
In the quarter, Tomic had a good straight sets win against Binda (6-3 6-4). During the match, Tomic scored 67 points vs Binda’s 52. The Australian was quite aggressive to blast 35 winners.
Regarding the service games, Tomic struck 12 aces and he committed only 1 double fault. Bernard Tomic was exceptionally efficient on serve to win 78% (35/45) of his 1st serve and 60% (9/15) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Tomic broke Binda twice after converting 40% of his break points (2/5).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Australian hasn’t surrendered yet a set in this competition to win 60% of the points he played.
ATP Guangzhou Challenger - Bernard Tomic's projected path
Tomic has favorable record in the last 10 years having won 56% of his matches (258-206). 22-14 on hard in 2026. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this event, Tomic has an overall 175-116 win-loss record in the last years on hard.
His best result of the current season was conquering the title the Lincoln Challenger where he defeated Mark Lajal in the final 4-6 7-6(4) 7-6(3).
The Australian has a compiled 28-22 win-loss record in 2026, 22-14 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Guangzhou Challenger
Tomic has never competed in this tournament before.
Pavel Kotov
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 27-11 | 12-3 | 2-5 | 13-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2025 | 11-22 | 9-14 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 20-25 | 9-11 | 11-9 | 0-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 45-32 | 13-14 | 20-12 | 9-2 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 37-20 | 5-3 | 20-9 | 12-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 221, Kotov got to the semifinal after beating Shintaro Mochizuki 7-6(4) 6-1, Akira Santillan 6-4 7-6(4) and Rio Noguchi 6-1 7-6(2).
In the quarter, The Russian had a good straight sets win against Noguchi (6-1 7-62). During the match Kotov scored 77 points vs Noguchi’s 61. Kotov was extremely aggressive to blast 31 winners.
Talking about serving, Kotov managed to score 6 aces and he committed only 4 double faults. Overall, Pavel Kotov was extremely efficient on serve to win 76% (31/41) of his 1st serve and 55% (16/29) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Kotov broke Noguchi 3 times after converting 38% of his break points (3/8).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Pavel hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 55% of the points he played.
ATP Guangzhou Challenger - Pavel Kotov's projected path
His best result of the year was conquering the title the Koblenz Challenger where he overcame Tom Gentzsch in the final 6-4 1-6 7-6(8) and the Cherbourg Challenger where he beat Filippo Romano in the final 6-2 7-5 and the Wuning 1 Challenger where he defeated Harry Wendelken in the final 4-6 6-3 6-4.
The Russian has an overall 27-11 win-loss record in 2026, 12-3 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Guangzhou Challenger
Previously, his best result was reaching the 1st round in 2025. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Tomic | Kotov |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 3 | 3 |
| Tot Set | 6 | 6 |
| Tot Games | 50 | 63 |
| Pts | 183-124 | 219-177 |
| Total Points | 307 | 396 |
| Winners | 86 | 95 |
| %Winners | 47% | 43% |
Both Tomic and Kotov played 3 matches. Both players have not surrendered a single set in this event so far. Talking about their workload, Tomic and Kotov have played the same amount of sets 6. However, Tomic played 13 games less than Kotov. The Australian scored 86 winners (47% of the total points). On the other side, The Russian blasted 95 winners (43%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Tomic | Kotov |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 32 | 20 |
| Avg per match | 10.7 | 6.7 |
| 1st in | 104/146 | 122/198 |
| %1st in | 71% | 62% |
| 1st pts | 86/104 | 95/122 |
| %1st pts | 83% | 78% |
| 2nd pts | 24/42 | 42/76 |
| %2nd pts | 57% | 55% |
Tomic recorded 32 aces (10.7 per match). Kotov blasted 20 aces (6.7 per match). Tomic won 83% points on his first serve. He pretty solid on his second serve to win 57% of the points. On the other side, Kotov won 78% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 55% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Tomic | Kotov |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 10 | 8 |
| Converted | 10/22 | 8/20 |
| % Converted | 45% | 40% |
| Conceded | 2 | 14 |
| Saved | 2 | 11 |
| % Saved | 100% | 79% |
| Times Broken | 0 | 3 |
Bernard broke his opponents 10 times with a 45% conversion rate. Bernard very solid his serve as he has never conceded a single service game after saving 2 break points. Pavel broke his opponents 8 times with a 40% conversion rate. Kotov conceded his serve 3 times and he saved 79% of the break points that he conceded.
| Tomic | |||||
| R1 Kikuchi |
R2 Delaney |
1/4 Binda |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-0 6-2 | 6-3 6-2 | 6-3 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | |
| Tot Games | 14 | 17 | 19 | 50 | |
| pts | 55-31 | 61-41 | 67-52 | 183-124 | |
| Total points | 86 | 102 | 119 | 307 | |
| Winners | 22 | 29 | 35 | 86 | |
| %Winners | 40% | 48% | 52% | 47% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 10 | 10 | 12 | 32 | |
| Double Faults | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| 1st in | 26/37 | 33/49 | 45/60 | 104/146 | |
| % 1st in | 70% | 67% | 75% | 71% | |
| 1st pts | 22/26 | 29/33 | 35/45 | 86/104 | |
| % 1st pts | 85% | 88% | 78% | 83% | |
| 2nd pts | 7/11 | 8/16 | 9/15 | 24/42 | |
| % 2nd pts | 64% | 50% | 60% | 57% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 5 | 3 | 2 | 10 | |
| Converted | 5/10 | 3/7 | 2/5 | 10/22 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 43% | 40% | 45% | |
| Conceded | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Saved | 0/0 | 0/0 | 2/2 | 2 | |
| Saved % | – | – | 100% | 33% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Kotov | |||||
| R1 Mochizuki |
R2 Santillan |
1/4 Noguchi |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-64 6-1 | 6-4 7-64 | 6-1 7-62 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | |
| Tot Games | 20 | 23 | 20 | 63 | |
| pts | 74-56 | 68-60 | 77-61 | 219-177 | |
| Total points | 130 | 128 | 138 | 396 | |
| Winners | 31 | 33 | 31 | 95 | |
| %Winners | 42% | 49% | 40% | 43% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 10 | 4 | 6 | 20 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 | |
| 1st in | 40/62 | 41/66 | 41/70 | 122/198 | |
| % 1st in | 65% | 62% | 59% | 62% | |
| 1st pts | 31/40 | 33/41 | 31/41 | 95/122 | |
| % 1st pts | 78% | 80% | 76% | 78% | |
| 2nd pts | 10/22 | 16/25 | 16/29 | 42/76 | |
| % 2nd pts | 45% | 64% | 55% | 55% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 4 | 1 | 3 | 8 | |
| Converted | 4/9 | 1/3 | 3/8 | 8/20 | |
| Converted % | 44% | 33% | 38% | 40% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 2 | 8 | 14 | |
| Saved | 2/4 | 2/2 | 7/8 | 11 | |
| Saved % | 50% | 100% | 88% | 79% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
Head 2 Head
WWWWWWWWWW
WWWWWWWWWW Tennis Scores in Guangzhou Challenger
- Marat SharipovSharipov – Elias YmerYmer (7-64 6-3) – See score progression
- Bernard TomicTomic – Alexandr BindaBinda (6-3 6-4) – See score progression
- Pavel KotovKotov – Rio NoguchiNoguchi (6-1 7-62) – See score progression
- Petr Bar BiryukovBar Biryukov – Mitsuki Wei Kang LeongWei Kang Leong (7-63 4-6 7-60) – See score progression
- Thijmen Loof/Kaito UesugiLoof/Kaito Uesugi – Chuan En Hsu/Zheng BaoluoEn Hsu/Zheng Baoluo (6-1 6-1) – See score progression
- Cheng-Peng Hsieh/Tsung-Hao HuangHsieh/Tsung-Hao Huang – Thomas Fancutt/Seita WatanabeFancutt/Seita Watanabe (7-5 7-5) – See score progression
- Pavel KotovKotov – Rio NoguchiNoguchi (6-1 7-6(2)) – See score progression
- Bernard TomicTomic – Alexandr BindaBinda (6-3 6-4) – See score progression
- Marat SharipovSharipov – Elias YmerYmer (7-6(4) 6-3) – See score progression
- Petr Bar BiryukovBar Biryukov – Mitsuki Wei Kang LeongWei Kang Leong (7-6(3) 4-6 7-6(0)) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Pavel KotovKotov – Bernard TomicTomic (0-0) – H2H and prediction
