Pavel Kotov and Akira Santillan will fight against each other in the 2nd round of the Guangzhou Challenger for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Wednesday at 6:00 pm on Court 5. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Pavel Kotov who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Pavel Kotov is the pick to win this match.
Pavel Kotov -> 1.3
Akira Santillan -> 3.14
Here where top tennis events are broadcasted or streamed online (ATP, WTA).
At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.
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Prediction and head to head Pavel Kotov vs. Akira Santillan
This will be the 2nd time that Pavel Kotov and Akira Santillan fight against each other. The head to head is 1-0 for Kotov (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.
The last time that they competed against each other, Kotov won 6-4 7-6(8) in the qualifications in the Jinan Challenger back in 2025.
Pavel Kotov
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 25-11 | 10-3 | 2-5 | 13-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2025 | 11-22 | 9-14 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 20-25 | 9-11 | 11-9 | 0-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 45-32 | 13-14 | 20-12 | 9-2 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 37-20 | 5-3 | 20-9 | 12-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 221, the Russian reached the 2nd round after defeating Shintaro Mochizuki 7-6(4) 6-1.
In the 1st round, Kotov had a good straight sets win against Mochizuki (7-64 6-1). During the match, Kotov scored 74 points vs Mochizuki’s 56. Pavel was exceptionally aggressive to blast 31 winners.
Regarding the service games, Kotov bagged 10 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Pavel Kotov lost the serve twice and he saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Kotov put 65% of his first serves in, winning 78% (31/40) of the points behind his 1st serve and 45% (10/22) on the 2nd serve. Pavel broke Mochizuki 4 times after converting 44% of his break points (4/9).
Kotov has positive record in the last 10 years having won 59% of his matches (298-210). 10-3 on hard in 2026. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Kotov has an overall 77-62 win-loss record in the last years on hard.
His best result of the season was winning the title the Koblenz Challenger where he beat Tom Gentzsch in the final 6-4 1-6 7-6(8) and the Cherbourg Challenger where he defeated Filippo Romano in the final 6-2 7-5 and the Wuning 1 Challenger where he overcame Harry Wendelken in the final 4-6 6-3 6-4.
The Russian has a compiled 25-11 win-loss record in 2026, 10-3 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Guangzhou Challenger
Previously, his best result was reaching the 1st round in 2025. See his history.
Akira Santillan
32 - 25win/loss
319
144
WLLWLLWLWL | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 32-25 | 15-16 | 10-7 | 7-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2025 | 61-23 | 33-14 | 6-2 | 22-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 3-7 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 39-33 | 11-13 | 21-14 | 7-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 37-28 | 28-19 | 9-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-1 |
Ranked no. 319, the Australian reached the 2nd round after defeating Yaojie Zeng 7-5 6-3.
In the 1st round, The Australian had a good straight sets win against Zeng (7-5 6-3). During the match Santillan scored 66 points vs Zeng’s 50. Akira was exceptionally aggressive to blast 41 winners.
About the serving games, Santillan struck 4 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Akira Santillan conceded no breaks for the entire match to save 2 break points. Furthermore, Santillan put 79% of his first serves in, winning 85% (41/48) of the points behind his 1st serve and 38% (5/13) on the 2nd serve. The Australian broke Zeng twice after converting 40% of his break points (2/5).
The Australian’s best result of the current year was reaching the semifinal in M15 Antalya and M25 Maanshan.
The Australian has a compiled 32-25 win-loss record in 2026, 15-16 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Guangzhou Challenger
Previously, his best result was reaching the qualifications in 2023. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Kotov | Santillan |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 1 | 1 |
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 |
| Tot Games | 20 | 21 |
| Pts | 74-56 | 66-50 |
| Total Points | 130 | 116 |
| Winners | 31 | 41 |
| %Winners | 42% | 62% |
Both Kotov and Santillan played 1 match. Both players have not conceded a single set in this event so far. Talking about their workload, Kotov and Santillan have played the same amount of sets 2. However, Kotov played 1 game less than Santillan. The Russian scored 31 winners (42% of the total points). On the other side, The Australian struck 41 winners (62%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Kotov | Santillan |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 10 | 4 |
| Avg per match | 10 | 4 |
| 1st in | 40/62 | 48/61 |
| %1st in | 65% | 79% |
| 1st pts | 31/40 | 41/48 |
| %1st pts | 78% | 85% |
| 2nd pts | 10/22 | 5/13 |
| %2nd pts | 45% | 38% |
Kotov bagged 10 aces . Santillan struck 4 aces . Kotov won 78% points behind his first serve. He pretty solid on his second serve to win 45% of the points. On the other side, Santillan won 85% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 38% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Kotov | Santillan |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 4 | 2 |
| Converted | 4/9 | 2/5 |
| % Converted | 44% | 40% |
| Conceded | 4 | 2 |
| Saved | 2 | 2 |
| % Saved | 50% | 100% |
| Times Broken | 2 | 0 |
Kotov broke his opponent 4 times with a 44% conversion rate. Kotov dropped his serve twice and he saved 50% of the break points that he conceded. Santillan broke his opponent twice with a 40% conversion rate. Santillan was rock solid on his serve as he has never conceded a single service game after saving 2 break points.
| Kotov | |||
| R1 Mochizuki |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-64 6-1 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | |
| Tot Games | 20 | 20 | |
| pts | 74-56 | 74-56 | |
| Total points | 130 | 130 | |
| Winners | 31 | 31 | |
| %Winners | 42% | 42% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 10 | 10 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 2 | |
| 1st in | 40/62 | 40/62 | |
| % 1st in | 65% | 65% | |
| 1st pts | 31/40 | 31/40 | |
| % 1st pts | 78% | 78% | |
| 2nd pts | 10/22 | 10/22 | |
| % 2nd pts | 45% | 45% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 4 | 4 | |
| Converted | 4/9 | 4/9 | |
| Converted % | 44% | 44% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 4 | |
| Saved | 2/4 | 2 | |
| Saved % | 50% | 50% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 2 | |
| Santillan | |||
| R1 Zeng |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-5 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | |
| Tot Games | 21 | 21 | |
| pts | 66-50 | 66-50 | |
| Total points | 116 | 116 | |
| Winners | 41 | 41 | |
| %Winners | 62% | 62% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 4 | 4 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 2 | |
| 1st in | 48/61 | 48/61 | |
| % 1st in | 79% | 79% | |
| 1st pts | 41/48 | 41/48 | |
| % 1st pts | 85% | 85% | |
| 2nd pts | 5/13 | 5/13 | |
| % 2nd pts | 38% | 38% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 2 | 2 | |
| Converted | 2/5 | 2/5 | |
| Converted % | 40% | 40% | |
| Conceded | 2 | 2 | |
| Saved | 2/2 | 2 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 100% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 0 | |
Head 2 Head
WWWWWWWWWW
WWWWWWWWWW Tennis Scores in Guangzhou Challenger
- Luca CastelnuovoCastelnuovo – Omar JasikaJasika (6-76 6-2 1-0 ret.) – See score progression
- Petr Bar BiryukovBar Biryukov – Jesse DelaneyDelaney (6-3 6-4) – See score progression
- Fajing SunSun – Alexis GalarneauGalarneau (7-5 3-6 7-5) – See score progression
- Marat SharipovSharipov – Thomas FancuttFancutt (6-2 6-3) – See score progression
- Bernard TomicTomic – Yuta KikuchiKikuchi (6-0 6-2) – See score progression
- Alexandr BindaBinda – Aoran WangWang (6-3 6-4) – See score progression
- Jake DelaneyDelaney – Hikaru ShiraishiShiraishi (4-6 6-3 6-4) – See score progression
- Pavel KotovKotov – Shintaro MochizukiMochizuki (7-64 6-1) – See score progression
- Akira SantillanSantillan – Yaojie ZengZeng (7-5 6-3) – See score progression
- Elias YmerYmer – Semen PankinPankin (5-7 7-5 6-3) – See score progression
- Colin SinclairSinclair – Linang XiaoXiao (6-4 1-6 7-65) – See score progression
- Rio NoguchiNoguchi – Kaichi UchidaUchida (3-6 6-2 6-3) – See score progression
- Pavel KotovKotov – Shintaro MochizukiMochizuki (7-6(4) 6-1) – See score progression
- Bernard TomicTomic – Yuta KikuchiKikuchi (6-0 6-2) – See score progression
- Jake DelaneyDelaney – Hikaru ShiraishiShiraishi (4-6 6-3 6-4) – See score progression
- Alexandr BindaBinda – Aoran WangWang (6-3 6-4) – See score progression
- Fajing SunSun – Alexis GalarneauGalarneau (7-5 3-6 7-5) – See score progression
- Luca CastelnuovoCastelnuovo – Omar JasikaJasika (6-7(6) 6-2 1-0 ret.) – See score progression
- Marat SharipovSharipov – Thomas FancuttFancutt (6-2 6-3) – See score progression
- Petr Bar BiryukovBar Biryukov – Jesse DelaneyDelaney (6-3 6-4) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Bernard TomicTomic – Jake DelaneyDelaney (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Elias YmerYmer – Luca CastelnuovoCastelnuovo (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Colin SinclairSinclair – Rio NoguchiNoguchi (0-2) – H2H and prediction
- Pavel KotovKotov – Akira SantillanSantillan (1-0) – H2H and prediction
