Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina will fight against each other in the final of the U.S. Open for the 18th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Saturday at 4:00 pm on arthur Ahse Stadium. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Aryna Sabalenka who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Aryna Sabalenka is the pick to win this match.
Aryna Sabalenka -> 1.65
Elena Rybakina -> 2.26
Here where top tennis events are broadcasted or streamed online (ATP, WTA).
At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.
Prediction and head to head Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elena Rybakina
This will be the 18th time that Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina fight against each other. The head to head is 10-7 for Sabalenka (see full H2H stats), 7-5 on hard.
The last time that they played each other, Sabalenka won 6-4 6-3 in the semifinal in Miami back in March 2026.
Highlights Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina – Miami 26-March-2026
Aryna Sabalenka
46 - 9win/loss
2
1
LWLWWWWWWL | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 47-10 | 34-5 | 8-3 | 0-0 | 5-2 | 0-0 |
| 2025 | 63-12 | 35-6 | 17-3 | 4-1 | 7-2 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 56-14 | 38-7 | 15-4 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 55-14 | 35-9 | 14-3 | 0-0 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 33-22 | 20-15 | 9-5 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
Currently world no. 1 Sabalenka reached the final after defeating Maria Camila Osorio Serrano 6-2 6-4, Polina Iatcenko 6-1 6-1, Kamilla Rakhimova 6-3 6-4, Taylor Townsend 6-4 6-3, Linda Noskova 7-6(1) 3-6 7-6 and Jessica Pegula 7-5 6-2.
In the semifinal, Sabalenka had a good straight sets win against Pegula (7-5 6-2). During the match, Sabalenka scored 65 points vs Pegula’s 54. Sabalenka was pretty aggressive to blast 28 winners.
Talking about the service games, Sabalenka scored 7 aces and she committed only 3 double faults. Aryna Sabalenka was quite efficient on serve to win 74% (28/38) of her 1st serve and 67% (14/21) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Aryna broke Pegula 3 times after converting 38% of her break points (3/8).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Aryna has conceded 1 set in this tournament to win 56% of the points she played.
WTA U.S. Open - Aryna Sabalenka's projected path
Sabalenka has a great win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 73% of her matches (453-170). 33-3 on hard in 2026. Regarding her performance on the same surface of this event, Sabalenka has a compiled 281-94 win-loss record in the last years on hard.
Her best result of the year was winning the title in Brisbane where she overcame Marta Kostyuk in the final 6-4 6-3 and in Indian Wells where she beat Elena Rybakina in the final 3-6 6-3 7-6(6) and in Miami where she defeated Cori Gauff in the final 6-2 4-6 6-3.
The Belarussian has a compiled 46-8 win-loss record in 2026, 33-3 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the U.S. Open
Previously, she won this tournament twice in 2024 and 2025. See her history.
Elena Rybakina
49 - 13win/loss
1
1
LWWWWWWWLW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 49-14 | 36-8 | 10-3 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| 2025 | 59-19 | 37-13 | 9-3 | 8-0 | 5-3 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 43-11 | 23-5 | 12-2 | 2-2 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 47-15 | 31-11 | 11-2 | 0-0 | 5-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 40-21 | 18-12 | 9-5 | 5-2 | 8-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 2 (career-high), Rybakina reached the final after beating Thea Frodin 6-3 6-2, Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 6-2 6-4, Yuliia Starodubtseva 7-6(6) 6-3, Naomi Osaka 6-1 6-4, Qinwen Zheng 3-6 6-1 6-4 and Cori Gauff 3-6 6-4 6-4.
In the semifinal against Gauff, Elena recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (3-6 6-4 6-4). During the match Rybakina scored 88 points vs Gauff’s 82. Rybakina was pretty aggressive to blast 32 winners.
About the serving games, Rybakina struck 5 aces and she committed only 2 double faults. Overall, Elena Rybakina was exceptionally effective on serve to win 76% (32/42) of her 1st serve and 56% (19/34) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent her to concede the serve 3 times. Elena broke Gauff 4 times after converting 67% of her break points (4/6).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Kazakhstani has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 55% of the points she played.
WTA U.S. Open - Elena Rybakina's projected path
Her best result of the season was winning the title at the Australian Open where she defeated Aryna Sabalenka in the final 6-4 4-6 6-4 and in Stuttgart where she defeated Karolina Muchova in the final 7-5 6-1.
The Kazakhstani has a composed 48-13 win-loss record in 2026, 35-7 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the U.S. Open
Previously, her best result was reaching the 4th round in 2025. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Sabalenka | Rybakina |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 6 | 6 |
| Tot Set | 13 | 14 |
| Tot Games | 125 | 129 |
| Pts | 446-350 | 446-361 |
| Total Points | 796 | 807 |
| Winners | 171 | 171 |
| %Winners | 38% | 38% |
Both Sabalenka and Rybakina played 6 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Aryna Sabalenka dropped 1 set, while Elena Rybakina conceded 2 sets. Sabalenka has played 1 set(s) less than Rybakina (13 vs 14). Therefore, Sabalenka played 4 games less than Rybakina. Aryna scored 171 winners (38% of the total points). On the other side, The Kazakhstani fired 171 winners (38%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Sabalenka | Rybakina |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 39 | 42 |
| Avg per match | 6.5 | 7 |
| 1st in | 237/360 | 213/369 |
| %1st in | 66% | 58% |
| 1st pts | 171/237 | 171/213 |
| %1st pts | 72% | 80% |
| 2nd pts | 72/123 | 86/156 |
| %2nd pts | 59% | 55% |
Sabalenka struck 39 aces (6.5 per match). Rybakina made 42 aces (7 per match). Sabalenka won 72% points behind her first serve. She was rock solid on her second serve to win 59% of the points. On the other side, Rybakina won 80% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 55% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Sabalenka | Rybakina |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 25 | 21 |
| Converted | 25/54 | 21/52 |
| % Converted | 46% | 40% |
| Conceded | 21 | 17 |
| Saved | 11 | 10 |
| % Saved | 52% | 59% |
| Times Broken | 10 | 7 |
The Belarussian broke her opponents 25 times with a 46% conversion rate. Sabalenka conceded her serve 10 times and she saved 52% of the break points that she conceded. Elena broke her opponents 21 times with a 40% conversion rate. Rybakina conceded her serve 7 times and she saved 59% of the break points that she conceded.
| Sabalenka | ||||||||
| R1 Camila Osorio Serrano |
R2 Iatcenko |
R3 Rakhimova |
R4 Townsend |
1/4 Noskova |
1/2 Pegula |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 6-4 | 6-1 6-1 | 6-3 6-4 | 6-4 6-3 | 7-61 3-6 7-6 | 7-5 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 13 | |
| Tot Games | 18 | 14 | 19 | 19 | 35 | 20 | 125 | |
| pts | 73-60 | 56-26 | 76-55 | 63-50 | 113-105 | 65-54 | 446-350 | |
| Total points | 133 | 82 | 131 | 113 | 218 | 119 | 796 | |
| Winners | 22 | 21 | 31 | 21 | 48 | 28 | 171 | |
| %Winners | 30% | 38% | 41% | 33% | 42% | 43% | 38% | |
| SERVE | ||||||||
| Aces | 5 | 3 | 10 | 2 | 12 | 7 | 39 | |
| Double Faults | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 16 | |
| 1st in | 35/60 | 28/37 | 41/63 | 33/46 | 62/95 | 38/59 | 237/360 | |
| % 1st in | 58% | 76% | 65% | 72% | 65% | 64% | 66% | |
| 1st pts | 22/35 | 21/28 | 31/41 | 21/33 | 48/62 | 28/38 | 171/237 | |
| % 1st pts | 63% | 75% | 76% | 64% | 77% | 74% | 72% | |
| 2nd pts | 13/25 | 5/9 | 16/22 | 4/13 | 20/33 | 14/21 | 72/123 | |
| % 2nd pts | 52% | 56% | 73% | 31% | 61% | 67% | 59% | |
| Breaks | ||||||||
| Won | 5 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 25 | |
| Converted | 5/8 | 6/8 | 2/7 | 7/14 | 2/9 | 3/8 | 25/54 | |
| Converted % | 63% | 75% | 29% | 50% | 22% | 38% | 46% | |
| Conceded | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 21 | |
| Saved | 5/7 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 2/6 | 3/6 | 1/1 | 11 | |
| Saved % | 71% | 0% | – | 33% | 50% | 100% | 42% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 10 | |
| Rybakina | ||||||||
| R1 Frodin |
R2 Bouzas |
R3 Starodubtseva |
R4 Osaka |
1/4 Zheng |
1/2 Gauff |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-2 | 6-2 6-4 | 7-66 6-3 | 6-1 6-4 | 3-6 6-1 6-4 | 3-6 6-4 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14 | |
| Tot Games | 17 | 18 | 22 | 17 | 26 | 29 | 129 | |
| pts | 66-45 | 63-46 | 81-68 | 60-41 | 88-79 | 88-82 | 446-361 | |
| Total points | 111 | 109 | 149 | 101 | 167 | 170 | 807 | |
| Winners | 22 | 30 | 28 | 27 | 32 | 32 | 171 | |
| %Winners | 33% | 48% | 35% | 45% | 36% | 36% | 38% | |
| SERVE | ||||||||
| Aces | 6 | 7 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 42 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 16 | |
| 1st in | 29/54 | 37/57 | 34/58 | 31/51 | 40/73 | 42/76 | 213/369 | |
| % 1st in | 54% | 65% | 59% | 61% | 55% | 55% | 58% | |
| 1st pts | 22/29 | 30/37 | 28/34 | 27/31 | 32/40 | 32/42 | 171/213 | |
| % 1st pts | 76% | 81% | 82% | 87% | 80% | 76% | 80% | |
| 2nd pts | 18/25 | 6/20 | 12/24 | 10/20 | 21/33 | 19/34 | 86/156 | |
| % 2nd pts | 72% | 30% | 50% | 50% | 64% | 56% | 55% | |
| Breaks | ||||||||
| Won | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 21 | |
| Converted | 3/6 | 4/6 | 4/13 | 3/8 | 3/13 | 4/6 | 21/52 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 67% | 31% | 38% | 23% | 67% | 40% | |
| Conceded | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 17 | |
| Saved | 2/2 | 1/2 | 1/3 | 1/1 | 3/4 | 2/5 | 10 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 50% | 33% | 100% | 75% | 40% | 66% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 7 | |
Head 2 Head
WWWWWWWWWW
WWWWWWWWWW 
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Elena RybakinaRybakina (10-7) – H2H and prediction
