Jessica Pegula and Leylah Annie Fernandez will square off in the 3rd round of the U.S. Open for the 5th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Friday at 11:30 AM on Arthur Ashe Stadium. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Jessica Pegula who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Jessica Pegula is the pick to win this match.
Jessica Pegula -> 1.14
Leylah Annie Fernandez -> 5.6
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At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.
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Prediction and head to head Jessica Pegula vs. Leylah Annie Fernandez
This will be the 5th time that Jessica Pegula and Leylah Annie Fernandez face off. The head to head is 3-1 for Pegula (see full H2H stats), 3-1 on hard.
The last time that they competed against each other, Pegula won 6-2 6-2 in the 3rd round in Miami back in March 2026.
Highlights Jessica Pegula vs Leylah Annie Fernandez – Miami 22-March-2026
Jessica Pegula
47 - 12win/loss
3
3
LWWWWWLWWW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 50-13 | 34-8 | 9-3 | 0-0 | 7-2 | 0-0 |
| 2025 | 53-23 | 35-12 | 11-5 | 3-4 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 39-16 | 29-9 | 4-2 | 0-2 | 6-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 59-18 | 45-12 | 8-4 | 0-0 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 42-21 | 28-15 | 11-4 | 1-1 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 3 (career-high), Pegula reached the 3rd round after beating Elena Gabriela Ruse 6-3 6-2 and Sofia Kenin 6-3 6-1.
In the 2nd round, Jessica had a good straight sets win against Kenin (6-3 6-1). During the match, Pegula scored 54 points vs Kenin’s 32. Pegula was quite aggressive to blast 19 winners.
Talking about the service games, Pegula made 5 aces and she committed only 1 double fault. Jessica Pegula was pretty effective on serve to win 86% (19/22) of her 1st serve and 78% (14/18) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. The American broke Kenin 4 times after converting 50% of her break points (4/8).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The American hasn’t conceded yet a set in this event to conquer 61% of the points she played.
WTA U.S. Open - Jessica Pegula's projected path
Pegula has a good record in the last 10 years having won 70% of her matches (383-168). 31-7 on hard in 2026. Talking about her performance on the same surface of this competition, Pegula has a compiled 260-99 match record in the last years on hard.
Her best result of the current year was winning the title in Dubai where she beat Elina Svitolina in the final 6-2 6-4 and in Charleston where she overcame Yuliia Starodubtseva in the final 6-2 6-2.
Jessica has a compiled 47-12 win-loss record in 2026, 31-7 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the U.S. Open
Previously, her best result was reaching the final in 2024. See her history.
Leylah Annie Fernandez
17 - 22win/loss
31
13
LWWLLWWLWL | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 17-23 | 8-12 | 8-7 | 0-0 | 1-4 | 0-0 |
| 2025 | 34-25 | 28-16 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 31-25 | 18-15 | 6-6 | 0-1 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 41-24 | 28-16 | 5-6 | 6-0 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 21-15 | 12-10 | 6-4 | 3-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 33, Annie reached the 3rd round after defeating Shuai Zhang 6-3 6-2 and Mananchaya Sawangkaew 6-4 6-1.
In the 2nd round, Annie had a good straight sets win against Sawangkaew (6-4 6-1). During the match Annie scored 62 points vs Sawangkaew’s 44. The Canadian was quite aggressive to blast 26 winners.
About the serving games, Annie blasted 2 aces and she committed only 3 double faults. Leylah Annie Fernandez lost the serve 3 times and she saved 6 break points. Furthermore, Annie put 63% of her first serves in, winning 72% (26/36) of the points behind her 1st serve and 33% (7/21) on the 2nd serve. Leylah broke Sawangkaew 6 times after converting 75% of her break points (6/8).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Canadian hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 58% of the points she played.
WTA U.S. Open - Leylah Annie Fernandez's projected path
Annie has a composed 17-22 win-loss record in 2026, 8-11 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the U.S. Open
Previously, her best result was reaching the final in 2021. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Pegula | Annie |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 2 |
| Tot Set | 4 | 4 |
| Tot Games | 33 | 34 |
| Pts | 128-83 | 123-90 |
| Total Points | 211 | 213 |
| Winners | 42 | 61 |
| %Winners | 33% | 50% |
Both Pegula and Annie played 2 matches. Both players have not surrendered a single set in this event so far. Talking about their workload, Pegula and Annie have played the same amount of sets 4. However, Pegula played 1 game less than Annie. The American scored 42 winners (33% of the total points). On the other side, Annie made 61 winners (50%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Pegula | Annie |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 9 | 6 |
| Avg per match | 4.5 | 3 |
| 1st in | 47/80 | 81/121 |
| %1st in | 59% | 67% |
| 1st pts | 42/47 | 61/81 |
| %1st pts | 89% | 75% |
| 2nd pts | 24/33 | 16/40 |
| %2nd pts | 73% | 40% |
Pegula managed to score 9 aces (4.5 per match). Annie bagged 6 aces (3 per match). Pegula won 89% points on her first serve. She was rock solid on her second serve to win 73% of the points. On the other side, Annie won 75% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 40% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Pegula | Annie |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 8 | 9 |
| Converted | 8/26 | 9/15 |
| % Converted | 31% | 60% |
| Conceded | 1 | 16 |
| Saved | 1 | 13 |
| % Saved | 100% | 81% |
| Times Broken | 0 | 3 |
Jessica broke her opponents 8 times with a 31% conversion rate. The American quite strong on her serve as she has never lost a single service game after saving 1 break points. Leylah broke her opponents 9 times with a 60% conversion rate. The Canadian conceded her serve 3 times and she saved 81% of the break points that she conceded.
| Pegula | ||||
| R1 Gabriela Ruse |
R2 Kenin |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-2 | 6-3 6-1 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Tot Games | 17 | 16 | 33 | |
| pts | 74-51 | 54-32 | 128-83 | |
| Total points | 125 | 86 | 211 | |
| Winners | 23 | 19 | 42 | |
| %Winners | 31% | 35% | 33% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 4 | 5 | 9 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| 1st in | 25/40 | 22/40 | 47/80 | |
| % 1st in | 63% | 55% | 59% | |
| 1st pts | 23/25 | 19/22 | 42/47 | |
| % 1st pts | 92% | 86% | 89% | |
| 2nd pts | 10/15 | 14/18 | 24/33 | |
| % 2nd pts | 67% | 78% | 73% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 4 | 4 | 8 | |
| Converted | 4/18 | 4/8 | 8/26 | |
| Converted % | 22% | 50% | 31% | |
| Conceded | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Saved | 1/1 | 0/0 | 1 | |
| Saved % | 100% | – | 50% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Annie | ||||
| R1 Zhang |
R2 Sawangkaew |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-2 | 6-4 6-1 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Tot Games | 17 | 17 | 34 | |
| pts | 61-46 | 62-44 | 123-90 | |
| Total points | 107 | 106 | 213 | |
| Winners | 35 | 26 | 61 | |
| %Winners | 57% | 42% | 50% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 4 | 2 | 6 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 3 | 6 | |
| 1st in | 45/64 | 36/57 | 81/121 | |
| % 1st in | 70% | 63% | 67% | |
| 1st pts | 35/45 | 26/36 | 61/81 | |
| % 1st pts | 78% | 72% | 75% | |
| 2nd pts | 9/19 | 7/21 | 16/40 | |
| % 2nd pts | 47% | 33% | 40% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 3 | 6 | 9 | |
| Converted | 3/7 | 6/8 | 9/15 | |
| Converted % | 43% | 75% | 60% | |
| Conceded | 7 | 9 | 16 | |
| Saved | 7/7 | 6/9 | 13 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 67% | 84% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 3 | 3 | |
Head 2 Head
WWWWWWWWWW
WWWWWWWWWW Tennis Scores – U.S. Open
- Nikola BartunkovaBartunkova – Tatjana MariaMaria (6-7(5) 6-2 6-3) – See score progression
- Naomi OsakaOsaka – Katerina SiniakovaSiniakova (6-2 5-7 6-1) – See score progression
- Madison KeysKeys – Anna BondarBondar (5-7 6-4 7-65) – See score progression
- Amanda AnisimovaAnisimova – Lilli TaggerTagger (6-3 3-6 6-1) – See score progression
- Anastasia PotapovaPotapova – Leolia JeanjeanJeanjean (6-4 2-6 6-3) – See score progression
- Elise MertensMertens – Maria TimofeevaTimofeeva (6-2 7-65) – See score progression
- Marie BouzkovaBouzkova – Harriet DartDart (6-2 6-2) – See score progression
- Alexandra EalaEala – Oleksandra OliynykovaOliynykova (6-1 6-4) – See score progression
- Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Nadia PodoroskaPodoroska (6-3 6-2) – See score progression
- Karolina MuchovaMuchova – Katie BoulterBoulter (6-1 6-0) – See score progression
- Ekaterina AlexandrovaAlexandrova – Kimberly BirrellBirrell (6-1 2-6 6-3) – See score progression
- Kamilla RakhimovaRakhimova – Oksana SelekhmetevaSelekhmeteva (6-3 6-0) – See score progression
- Jessica PegulaPegula – Sofia KeninKenin (6-3 6-1) – See score progression
- Jasmine PaoliniPaolini – Lucrezia StefaniniStefanini (6-4 6-1) – See score progression
- Sorana CirsteaCirstea – Diane ParryParry (6-2 7-5) – See score progression
- Marta KostyukKostyuk – Sloane StephensStephens (6-1 7-5) – See score progression
- Anna KalinskayaKalinskaya – Xinyu WangWang (7-5 2-6 6-3) – See score progression
- Ann LiLi – Donna VekicVekic (5-7 7-64 6-4) – See score progression
- Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Polina IatcenkoIatcenko (6-1 6-1) – See score progression
- Leylah Annie FernandezAnnie Fernandez – Mananchaya SawangkaewSawangkaew (6-4 6-1) – See score progression
- Emma NavarroNavarro – Caty McNallyMcNally (3-6 6-2 6-3) – See score progression
- Elina SvitolinaSvitolina – Maya JointJoint (6-2 6-76 6-4) – See score progression
- Diana ShnaiderShnaider – Karolina PliskovaPliskova (6-1 7-64) – See score progression
- Taylor TownsendTownsend – Taylah PrestonPreston (6-1 6-1) – See score progression
- Linda NoskovaNoskova – Lanlana TararudeeTararudee (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
- Clement GeensGeens – Sem VerbeekVerbeek (6-2 6-0) – See score progression
- Nikola BartunkovaBartunkova – Tatjana MariaMaria (6-7(5) 6-2 6-3) – See score progression
- Anastasia PotapovaPotapova – Leolia JeanjeanJeanjean (6-4 2-6 6-3) – See score progression
- Amanda AnisimovaAnisimova – Lilli TaggerTagger (6-3 3-6 6-1) – See score progression
- Alexandra EalaEala – Oleksandra OliynykovaOliynykova (6-1 6-4) – See score progression
- Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Nadia PodoroskaPodoroska (6-3 6-2) – See score progression
- Marie BouzkovaBouzkova – Harriet DartDart (6-2 6-2) – See score progression
- Madison KeysKeys – Anna BondarBondar (5-7 6-4 7-6(5)) – See score progression
- Naomi OsakaOsaka – Katerina SiniakovaSiniakova (6-2 5-7 6-1) – See score progression
- Elise MertensMertens – Maria TimofeevaTimofeeva (6-2 7-6(5)) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Cristina BucsaBucsa – Himeno SakatsumeSakatsume (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Paula Badosa GibertBadosa Gibert – Cori GauffGauff (5-3) – H2H and prediction
- Qinwen ZhengZheng – Yulia PutintsevaPutintseva (0-2) – H2H and prediction
- Maria SakkariSakkari – Yulia StarodubtsewaStarodubtsewa (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Jessica Bouzas ManeiroBouzas Maneiro – Elena RybakinaRybakina (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Kamilla RakhimovaRakhimova (3-0) – H2H and prediction
- Taylor TownsendTownsend – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Marta KostyukKostyuk – Ekaterina AlexandrovaAlexandrova (0-2) – H2H and prediction
- Ann LiLi – (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Jessica PegulaPegula – Leylah Annie FernandezAnnie Fernandez (3-1) – H2H and prediction
- Jasmine PaoliniPaolini – Sorana CirsteaCirstea (3-0) – H2H and prediction
- Elina SvitolinaSvitolina – Anna KalinskayaKalinskaya (4-1) – H2H and prediction
- Emma NavarroNavarro – Karolina MuchovaMuchova (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Anastasia PotapovaPotapova – Amanda AnisimovaAnisimova (1-1) – H2H and prediction
- Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Marie BouzkovaBouzkova (3-0) – H2H and prediction
- Naomi OsakaOsaka – Elise MertensMertens (6-3) – H2H and prediction
