Madison Keys and Xiyu Wang will square off in the 4th round of the Cincinnati Open for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Wednesday at 7:00 pm on Grandstand. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Madison Keys who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Madison Keys is the pick to win this match.
Madison Keys -> 1.25
Xiyu Wang -> 3.92
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At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.
Prediction and head to head Madison Keys vs. Xiyu Wang
This will be the 2nd time that Madison Keys and Xiyu Wang clash against each other. The head to head is 1-0 for Keys (see full H2H stats), but they have never played each other on hard.
The last time that they locked horns, Keys won 6-2 7-6(3) in the 2nd round in Eastbourne back in 2023.
Madison Keys
32 - 13win/loss
23
5
LWWLWWWLWL | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 35-15 | 14-9 | 11-4 | 0-0 | 10-2 | 0-0 |
| 2025 | 37-15 | 24-6 | 9-4 | 0-2 | 4-3 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 24-12 | 7-6 | 13-4 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 33-15 | 19-9 | 5-3 | 0-2 | 9-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 30-20 | 25-12 | 4-4 | 0-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 24, Madison reached the 4th round after beating Daria Snigur 4-6 6-3 6-3 and Katerina Siniakova 6-1 6-3.
In the 3rd round, Keys had a good straight sets win against Siniakova (6-1 6-3). During the match, Keys scored 66 points vs Siniakova’s 40. Madison was quite aggressive to blast 19 winners.
Regarding the service games, Keys scored 2 aces and she committed only 3 double faults. Madison Keys was exceptionally efficient on serve to win 79% (19/24) of her 1st serve and 70% (16/23) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Keys broke Siniakova 4 times after converting 44% of her break points (4/9).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The American has dropped 1 set in this event to conquer 55% of the points she played.
WTA Cincinnati - Madison Keys's projected path
Keys has a solid match record in the last 10 years having won 65% of her matches (249-134). 11-7 on hard in 2026. Regarding her performance on the same surface of this tournament, Keys has a composed 144-76 match record in the last years on hard.
Her best result of the current year was winning the title in Eastbourne where she beat Tatjana Maria in the final 7-5 6-4.
Keys has a compiled 32-13 win-loss record in 2026, 11-7 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Cincinnati
Previously, she won this tournament once in 2019. See her history.
Xiyu Wang
36 - 8win/loss
85
49
LWWLWWWWLL | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 38-10 | 9-5 | 18-4 | 10-0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2025 | 21-18 | 17-11 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 28-30 | 18-19 | 9-8 | 1-1 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 27-25 | 17-17 | 5-4 | 0-0 | 5-4 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 41-25 | 15-10 | 23-11 | 3-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 108, the Chinese got to the 4th round after beating Bianca Vanessa Andreescu 6-0 6-4, Polina Kudermetova 6-3 6-2, Maria Timofeeva 6-0 3-0 ret., Leylah Annie Fernandez 3-6 6-2 6-2 and Elina Svitolina w/o.
In the 3rd round, Xiyu defeated Svitolina (w/o). During the match Wang and Svitolina scored the same amount of points (). However, the world no. 24 was stronger during the important points and that was the most significant difference in the match. The Chinese was not very aggressive do strike just winners.
Talking about serving, Wang wasn’t able to score even 1 ace for the entire match and she was pretty consistent in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Xiyu Wang conceded no breaks for the entire match to put 0% of her first serves in, win 0% (/) of the points behind her 1st serve and 0% (/) on the 2nd serve.
Overall Performance in this tournament
Xiyu started her run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, she has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 58% of the points she played.
WTA Cincinnati - Xiyu Wang's projected path
Her best result of the season was conquering the title the W35 Maanshan where she overcame Kristiana Sidorova in the final 6-4 7-5 and the W50 Maanshan where she beat Hanyu Guo in the final 6-2 7-6(3) and the W50 Baotou where she beat Anastasia Zolotareva in the final 6-2 6-3.
The Chinese has an aggregate 36-8 win-loss record in 2026, 7-3 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Cincinnati
Previously, her best result was reaching the 1st round in 2023. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Keys | Wang |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 5 | 10 |
| Tot Games | 44 | 67 |
| Pts | 165-135 | 244-165 |
| Total Points | 300 | 409 |
| Winners | 59 | 101 |
| %Winners | 36% | 41% |
Keys played 2 matches while Wang competed in 4 matches. Wang started her run from the qualifications while Keys had a direct access to the main draw. Both players lost a set in the event. Madison Keys conceded 1 set, while Xiyu Wang conceded 1 set. Keys has played 5 set(s) less than Wang (5 vs 10). Therefore, Keys played 23 games less than Wang. The American scored 59 winners (36% of the total points). On the other side, The Chinese managed to score 101 winners (41%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Keys | Wang |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 16 | 5 |
| Avg per match | 8 | 1.3 |
| 1st in | 79/139 | 144/209 |
| %1st in | 57% | 69% |
| 1st pts | 59/79 | 101/144 |
| %1st pts | 75% | 70% |
| 2nd pts | 30/60 | 30/65 |
| %2nd pts | 50% | 46% |
Keys managed to score 16 aces (8 per match). Wang fired 5 aces (1.3 per match). Keys won 75% points behind her first serve. She pretty effective on her second serve to win 50% of the points. On the other side, Wang won 70% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 46% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Keys | Wang |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 9 | 21 |
| Converted | 9/21 | 21/38 |
| % Converted | 43% | 55% |
| Conceded | 13 | 19 |
| Saved | 10 | 12 |
| % Saved | 77% | 63% |
| Times Broken | 3 | 7 |
The American broke her opponents 9 times with a 43% conversion rate. The American surrendered her serve 3 times and she saved 77% of the break points that she conceded. The Chinese broke her opponents 21 times with a 55% conversion rate. Wang conceded her serve 7 times and she saved 63% of the break points that she conceded.
| Keys | ||||
| R2 Snigur |
R3 Siniakova |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 4-6 6-3 6-3 | 6-1 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 5 | |
| Tot Games | 28 | 16 | 44 | |
| pts | 99-95 | 66-40 | 165-135 | |
| Total points | 194 | 106 | 300 | |
| Winners | 40 | 19 | 59 | |
| %Winners | 40% | 29% | 36% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 14 | 2 | 16 | |
| Double Faults | 6 | 3 | 9 | |
| 1st in | 55/92 | 24/47 | 79/139 | |
| % 1st in | 60% | 51% | 57% | |
| 1st pts | 40/55 | 19/24 | 59/79 | |
| % 1st pts | 73% | 79% | 75% | |
| 2nd pts | 14/37 | 16/23 | 30/60 | |
| % 2nd pts | 38% | 70% | 50% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 5 | 4 | 9 | |
| Converted | 5/12 | 4/9 | 9/21 | |
| Converted % | 42% | 44% | 43% | |
| Conceded | 10 | 3 | 13 | |
| Saved | 7/10 | 3/3 | 10 | |
| Saved % | 70% | 100% | 85% | |
| Times Broken | 3 | 0 | 3 | |
| Wang | |||||||
| Q1 Andreescu |
Q3 Kudermetova |
R1 Timofeeva |
R2 Annie |
R3 Svitolina |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-0 6-4 | 6-3 6-2 | 6-0 3-0 ret. | 3-6 6-2 6-2 | w/o | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | – | 9 | |
| Tot Games | 16 | 17 | 9 | 25 | – | 67 | |
| pts | 65-39 | 60-39 | 44-22 | 75-65 | – | 244-165 | |
| Total points | 104 | 99 | 66 | 140 | – | 409 | |
| Winners | 23 | 29 | 19 | 30 | – | 101 | |
| %Winners | 35% | 48% | 43% | 40% | – | 41% | |
| SERVE | |||||||
| Aces | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | – | 5 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | – | 9 | |
| 1st in | 35/45 | 35/55 | 28/43 | 46/66 | – | 144/209 | |
| % 1st in | 78% | 64% | 65% | 70% | – | 69% | |
| 1st pts | 23/35 | 29/35 | 19/28 | 30/46 | – | 101/144 | |
| % 1st pts | 66% | 83% | 68% | 65% | – | 70% | |
| 2nd pts | 3/10 | 8/20 | 8/15 | 11/20 | – | 30/65 | |
| % 2nd pts | 30% | 40% | 53% | 55% | – | 46% | |
| Breaks | |||||||
| Won | 7 | 4 | 4 | 6 | – | 21 | |
| Converted | 7/16 | 4/4 | 4/9 | 6/9 | – | 21/38 | |
| Converted % | 44% | 100% | 44% | 67% | – | 55% | |
| Conceded | 3 | 3 | 7 | 6 | – | 19 | |
| Saved | 0/3 | 2/3 | 7/7 | 3/6 | – | 12 | |
| Saved % | 0% | 67% | 100% | 50% | – | 109% | |
| Times Broken | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | – | 7 | |
Head 2 Head
WWWWWWWWWW
WWWWWWWWWW Tennis Scores in Cincinnati
- Mirra AndreevaAndreeva – Janice TjenTjen (6-1 7-65) – See score progression
- Marta KostyukKostyuk – Sloane StephensStephens (7-5 7-5) – See score progression
- Cori GauffGauff – Ann LiLi (6-1 7-63) – See score progression
- Madison KeysKeys – Katerina SiniakovaSiniakova (6-1 6-3) – See score progression
- Xiyu WangWang – Elina SvitolinaSvitolina (w/o) – See score progression
- Amanda AnisimovaAnisimova – Alexandra EalaEala (4-6 6-4 6-2) – See score progression
- Jessica PegulaPegula – Emma NavarroNavarro (7-5 6-2) – See score progression
- Elena RybakinaRybakina – Magdalena FrechFrech (6-4 7-62) – See score progression
- Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Maria SakkariSakkari (4-6 6-1 6-1) – See score progression
- Linda NoskovaNoskova – Clara TausonTauson (7-63 6-2) – See score progression
- Sorana CirsteaCirstea – Anna KalinskayaKalinskaya (6-74 6-1 5-0 ret.) – See score progression
- Diane ParryParry – Lois BoissonBoisson (4-6 6-4 6-3) – See score progression
- Diana ShnaiderShnaider – Maja ChwalinskaChwalinska (6-2 7-63) – See score progression
- Madison KeysKeys – Katerina SiniakovaSiniakova (6-1 6-3) – See score progression
- Xiyu WangWang – Elina SvitolinaSvitolina (w/o) – See score progression
- Cori GauffGauff – Ann LiLi (6-1 7-6(3)) – See score progression
- Marta KostyukKostyuk – Sloane StephensStephens (7-5 7-5) – See score progression
- Mirra AndreevaAndreeva – Janice TjenTjen (6-1 7-6(5)) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Xin Yu WangYu Wang (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Marie BouzkovaBouzkova – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Madison KeysKeys – Xiyu WangWang (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Marta KostyukKostyuk – (2-1) – H2H and prediction
- Sorana CirsteaCirstea – Jessica PegulaPegula (1-2) – H2H and prediction
- Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Diane ParryParry (1-0) – H2H and prediction
