Andre Ilagan and Spencer Johnson will play each other in the semifinal of the Lexington Challenger for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Saturday at 3:00 pm on STADIUM 1. Here the head to head stats and relative prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Spencer Johnson who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Spencer Johnson is the pick to win this match.
Spencer Johnson -> 1.59
Andre Ilagan -> 2.18
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At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.
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Prediction and head to head Andre Ilagan vs. Spencer Johnson
This will be the 2nd time that Andre Ilagan and Spencer Johnson play each other. The head to head is 1-0 for Ilagan (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.
The last time that they locked horns, Ilagan won 4-6 7-6(6) 6-3 in the 1st round in M15 San Diego back in 2025.
Andre Ilagan
38 - 21win/loss
184
181
LLLWLWWWLW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 42-26 | 27-20 | 0-0 | 12-5 | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| 2025 | 35-33 | 30-27 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 50-29 | 41-22 | 0-0 | 9-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 19-6 | 19-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 15-7 | 15-6 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 243 (career-high), Andre got to the semifinal after defeating Andres Andrade 6-3 6-4, Soon-Woo Kwon 3-6 7-6(4) 6-4 and Sebastian Gorzny 7-6(5) 6-4.
In the quarter, Andre had a good straight sets win against Gorzny (7-65 6-4). During the match, Ilagan and Gorzny scored the same amount of points (0). However, the world no. 243 was stronger during the important points and that was the most significant difference in the match. The American was not very aggressive to strike just 0 winners.
Talking about the service games, Ilagan couldn’t to score even 1 ace during the match and he was quite steady in conceding no double faults. Andre Ilagan conceded no breaks for the entire match to put 0% of his first serves in, win 0% (0) of the points behind his 1st serve and 0% (0) on the 2nd serve.
Overall Performance in this tournament
The American has dropped 1 set in this competition to win 52% of the points he played.
ATP Lexington Challenger - Andre Ilagan's projected path
Ilagan has a solid match record in the last 5 years having won 62% of his matches (156-96). 22-15 on hard in 2026. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Ilagan has a compiled127-76 match record in the last 5 years on hard.
The American’s best result of the year was reaching the semifinal in M15 Maanshan and the Tyler Challenger.
Andre has an aggregate 37-21 win-loss record in 2026, 22-15 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Lexington Challenger
Previously, his best result was reaching the qualifications in 2025. See his history.
Spencer Johnson
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 33-9 | 33-9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2025 | 17-10 | 17-9 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 9-5 | 9-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 524 (career-high), Spencer reached the semifinal after beating Matthew Forbes 6-1 7-5, Ryan Colby 6-1 6-7(4) 7-6(2), Moez Echargui 6-4 6-3, Jay Dylan Hara Friend 6-3 6-0 and Andres Martin 4-6 7-6(3) 6-3.
In the quarter against Martin, Johnson recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (4-6 7-63 6-3). During the match Johnson and Martin scored the same amount of points (0). However, the world no. 243 was stronger during the important points and that was the most significant difference in the match. Spencer was not very aggressive do strike just 0 winners.
Talking about serving, Johnson was unable to score even 1 ace for the entire match and he was exceptionally steady in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Spencer Johnson conceded no breaks for the entire match to put 0% of his first serves in, win 0% (0/0) of the points behind his 1st serve and 0% (0/0) on the 2nd serve.
Overall Performance in this tournament
Spencer started his run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, he has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 58% of the points he played.
ATP Lexington Challenger - Spencer Johnson's projected path
Spencer’s best result of the year was getting to the final in M15 Irvine,M15 Claremont and M15 Rancho Santa Fe.
Johnson has an overall 30-5 win-loss record in 2026, 30-5 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Lexington Challenger
Spencer has never competed in this tournament before.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Ilagan | Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 3 | 5 |
| Tot Set | 7 | 12 |
| Tot Games | 74 | 118 |
| Pts | 198-183 | 302-219 |
| Total Points | 381 | 521 |
| Winners | 91 | 126 |
| %Winners | 46% | 42% |
Ilagan played 3 matches while Johnson competed in 5 matches. Johnson started his run from the qualifications while Ilagan had a direct access to the main draw. Both players lost a set in the event. Andre Ilagan dropped 1 set, while Spencer Johnson dropped 2 sets. Ilagan has played 5 set(s) less than Johnson (7 vs 12). Therefore, Ilagan played 44 games less than Johnson. The American scored 91 winners (46% of the total points). On the other side, Johnson recorded 126 winners (42%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Ilagan | Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 12 | 29 |
| Avg per match | 4 | 5.8 |
| 1st in | 135/223 | 160/255 |
| %1st in | 61% | 63% |
| 1st pts | 91/135 | 126/160 |
| %1st pts | 67% | 79% |
| 2nd pts | 44/88 | 53/95 |
| %2nd pts | 50% | 56% |
Ilagan struck 12 aces (4 per match). Johnson blasted 29 aces (5.8 per match). Ilagan won 67% points behind his first serve. He quite strong on his second serve to win 50% of the points. On the other side, Johnson won 79% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 56% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Ilagan | Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 6 | 16 |
| Converted | 6/12 | 16/31 |
| % Converted | 50% | 52% |
| Conceded | 22 | 11 |
| Saved | 17 | 6 |
| % Saved | 77% | 55% |
| Times Broken | 5 | 5 |
Ilagan broke his opponents 6 times with a 50% conversion rate. Ilagan dropped his serve 5 times and he saved 77% of the break points that he conceded. Spencer broke his opponents 16 times with a 52% conversion rate. Spencer conceded his serve 5 times and he saved 55% of the break points that he conceded.
| Ilagan | |||||
| R1 Andrade |
R2 Kwon |
1/4 Gorzny |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-4 | 3-6 7-64 6-4 | 7-65 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 2 | 7 | |
| Tot Games | 19 | 32 | 23 | 74 | |
| pts | 71-58 | 127-125 | 0-0 | 198-183 | |
| Total points | 129 | 252 | 0 | 381 | |
| Winners | 34 | 57 | 0 | 91 | |
| %Winners | 48% | 45% | 0% | 46% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 5 | 7 | 0 | 12 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 8 | 0 | 9 | |
| 1st in | 42/65 | 93/158 | 0/0 | 135/223 | |
| % 1st in | 65% | 59% | 0% | 61% | |
| 1st pts | 34/42 | 57/93 | 0/0 | 91/135 | |
| % 1st pts | 81% | 61% | 0% | 67% | |
| 2nd pts | 12/23 | 32/65 | 0/0 | 44/88 | |
| % 2nd pts | 52% | 49% | 0% | 50% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6 | |
| Converted | 2/5 | 4/7 | 0/0 | 6/12 | |
| Converted % | 40% | 57% | 0% | 50% | |
| Conceded | 2 | 20 | 0 | 22 | |
| Saved | 2/2 | 15/20 | 0/0 | 17 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 75% | – | 58% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | |
| Johnson | |||||||
| Q1 Forbes |
Q3 Colby |
R1 Echargui |
R2 Dylan Hara Friend |
1/4 Martin |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-1 7-5 | 6-1 6-74 7-62 | 6-4 6-3 | 6-3 6-0 | 4-6 7-63 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 12 | |
| Tot Games | 19 | 33 | 19 | 15 | 32 | 118 | |
| pts | 65-44 | 113-92 | 62-45 | 62-38 | 0-0 | 302-219 | |
| Total points | 109 | 205 | 107 | 100 | 0 | 521 | |
| Winners | 26 | 46 | 30 | 24 | 0 | 126 | |
| %Winners | 40% | 41% | 48% | 39% | 0% | 42% | |
| SERVE | |||||||
| Aces | 8 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 29 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 11 | |
| 1st in | 35/52 | 61/101 | 36/52 | 28/50 | 0/0 | 160/255 | |
| % 1st in | 67% | 60% | 69% | 56% | 0% | 63% | |
| 1st pts | 26/35 | 46/61 | 30/36 | 24/28 | 0/0 | 126/160 | |
| % 1st pts | 74% | 75% | 83% | 86% | 0% | 79% | |
| 2nd pts | 12/17 | 17/40 | 11/16 | 13/22 | 0/0 | 53/95 | |
| % 2nd pts | 71% | 43% | 69% | 59% | 0% | 56% | |
| Breaks | |||||||
| Won | 4 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 16 | |
| Converted | 4/6 | 6/11 | 2/5 | 4/9 | 0/0 | 16/31 | |
| Converted % | 67% | 55% | 40% | 44% | 0% | 52% | |
| Conceded | 1 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 11 | |
| Saved | 0/1 | 4/8 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 6 | |
| Saved % | 0% | 50% | 100% | 100% | – | 83% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | |
Head 2 Head
WWWWWWWWWW
WWWWWWWWWW Tennis Scores in Lexington Challenger
- Spencer JohnsonJohnson – Andres MartinMartin (4-6 7-63 6-3) – See score progression
- Dusan LajovicLajovic – Abedallah ShelbayhShelbayh (7-64 2-6 6-4) – See score progression
- Edas ButvilasButvilas – Rei SakamotoSakamoto (7-65 3-6 7-5) – See score progression
- Andre IlaganIlagan – Sebastian GorznyGorzny (7-65 6-4) – See score progression
- Ji Sung Nam/Reese StalderSung Nam/Reese Stalder – Blake Bayldon/Patrick HarperBayldon/Patrick Harper (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
- Spencer JohnsonJohnson – Andres MartinMartin (4-6 7-6(3) 6-3) – See score progression
- Andre IlaganIlagan – Sebastian GorznyGorzny (7-6(5) 6-4) – See score progression
