Florent Bax and Ilia Simakin will square off in the quarter of the Istanbul Challenger for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Friday at 3:00 pm on COURT A. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Ilia Simakin who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Ilia Simakin is the pick to win this match.
Ilia Simakin -> 1.615
Florent Bax -> 2.14
Here where top tennis events are broadcasted or streamed online (ATP, WTA).
At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.
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Prediction and head to head Florent Bax vs. Ilia Simakin
This will be the 2nd time that Florent Bax and Ilia Simakin clash against each other. The head to head is 1-0 for Bax (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.
The last time that they played each other, Bax won 6-2 6-2 in the quarter in M15 Monastir back in 2023.
Florent Bax
33 - 20win/loss
298
247
LWWLLWWWLL | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 38-25 | 21-14 | 17-10 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2025 | 58-27 | 25-9 | 31-10 | 2-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 47-27 | 13-8 | 33-16 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 37-21 | 25-9 | 12-11 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 40-28 | 10-10 | 29-17 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 247 (career-high), the French player got to the quarter after beating Arthur Weber 6-3 6-4 and Daniil Ostapenkov 6-7(4) 7-6(6) 6-1.
In the 2nd round against Ostapenkov, Bax recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (6-74 7-66 6-1). During the match, Bax scored 111 points vs Ostapenkov’s 97. Florent was extremely aggressive to blast 52 winners.
Talking about the service games, Bax recorded 9 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Florent Bax lost the serve twice and he saved 5 break points. Furthermore, Bax put 58% of his first serves in, winning 87% (52/60) of the points behind his 1st serve and 48% (21/44) on the 2nd serve. The French player broke Ostapenkov 4 times after converting 67% of his break points (4/6).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The French player has conceded 1 set in this competition to win 54% of the points he played.
ATP Istanbul Challenger - Florent Bax's projected path
Bax has a solid win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 62% of his matches (283-171). 16-9 on hard in 2026. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Bax has a composed 97-55 match record in the last years on hard.
Bax’s best result of the season was reaching the final in M25 Santa Margherita di Pula.
The French player has a composed 33-20 win-loss record in 2026, 16-9 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Istanbul Challenger
The French player has never competed in this tournament before.
Ilia Simakin
26 - 16win/loss
151
151
WWWWWWWWWW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 43-17 | 38-8 | 3-8 | 2-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2025 | 43-22 | 43-21 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 62-22 | 55-21 | 0-0 | 7-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 31-19 | 28-18 | 3-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 24-17 | 24-12 | 0-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 297, Ilia got to the quarter after beating Adrian Boitan 5-7 6-3 6-4 and Fajing Sun 6-3 7-6(4).
In the 2nd round, Simakin had a good straight sets win against Sun (6-3 7-64). During the match Simakin scored 79 points vs Sun’s 61. Simakin was pretty aggressive to blast 27 winners.
About the serving games, Simakin scored 4 aces and he committed only 4 double faults. Ilia Simakin was extremely efficient on serve to win 82% (27/33) of his 1st serve and 69% (24/35) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Ilia broke Sun once after converting 14% of his break points (1/7).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Russian has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 54% of the points he played.
ATP Istanbul Challenger - Ilia Simakin's projected path
His best result of the current year was conquering the title the Phan Thiet 2 Challenger where he defeated Yi Zhou in the final 7-5 6-4.
Simakin has a compiled 26-16 win-loss record in 2026, 21-7 on hard (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Bax | Simakin |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 2 |
| Tot Set | 5 | 5 |
| Tot Games | 52 | 53 |
| Pts | 172-144 | 179-151 |
| Total Points | 316 | 330 |
| Winners | 83 | 72 |
| %Winners | 48% | 40% |
Both Bax and Simakin played 2 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Florent Bax conceded 1 set, while Ilia Simakin conceded 1 set. Talking about their workload, Bax and Simakin have played the same amount of sets 5. However, Bax played 1 game less than Simakin. Florent scored 83 winners (48% of the total points). On the other side, Simakin made 72 winners (40%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Bax | Simakin |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 17 | 18 |
| Avg per match | 8.5 | 9 |
| 1st in | 97/163 | 85/165 |
| %1st in | 60% | 52% |
| 1st pts | 83/97 | 72/85 |
| %1st pts | 86% | 85% |
| 2nd pts | 30/66 | 45/80 |
| %2nd pts | 45% | 56% |
Bax bagged 17 aces (8.5 per match). Simakin scored 18 aces (9 per match). Bax won 86% points behind his first serve. He was rock solid on his second serve to win 45% of the points. On the other side, Simakin won 85% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 56% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Bax | Simakin |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 7 | 4 |
| Converted | 7/9 | 4/14 |
| % Converted | 78% | 29% |
| Conceded | 10 | 9 |
| Saved | 7 | 7 |
| % Saved | 70% | 78% |
| Times Broken | 3 | 2 |
The French player broke his opponents 7 times with a 78% conversion rate. The French player conceded his serve 3 times and he saved 70% of the break points that he conceded. Simakin broke his opponents 4 times with a 29% conversion rate. Simakin conceded his serve twice and he saved 78% of the break points that he conceded.
| Bax | ||||
| R1 Weber |
R2 Ostapenkov |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-4 | 6-74 7-66 6-1 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 5 | |
| Tot Games | 19 | 33 | 52 | |
| pts | 61-47 | 111-97 | 172-144 | |
| Total points | 108 | 208 | 316 | |
| Winners | 31 | 52 | 83 | |
| %Winners | 51% | 47% | 48% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 8 | 9 | 17 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| 1st in | 37/59 | 60/104 | 97/163 | |
| % 1st in | 63% | 58% | 60% | |
| 1st pts | 31/37 | 52/60 | 83/97 | |
| % 1st pts | 84% | 87% | 86% | |
| 2nd pts | 9/22 | 21/44 | 30/66 | |
| % 2nd pts | 41% | 48% | 45% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 3 | 4 | 7 | |
| Converted | 3/3 | 4/6 | 7/9 | |
| Converted % | 100% | 67% | 78% | |
| Conceded | 3 | 7 | 10 | |
| Saved | 2/3 | 5/7 | 7 | |
| Saved % | 67% | 71% | 69% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
| Simakin | ||||
| R1 Boitan |
R2 Sun |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 5-7 6-3 6-4 | 6-3 7-64 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 5 | |
| Tot Games | 31 | 22 | 53 | |
| pts | 100-90 | 79-61 | 179-151 | |
| Total points | 190 | 140 | 330 | |
| Winners | 45 | 27 | 72 | |
| %Winners | 45% | 34% | 40% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 14 | 4 | 18 | |
| Double Faults | 6 | 4 | 10 | |
| 1st in | 52/97 | 33/68 | 85/165 | |
| % 1st in | 54% | 49% | 52% | |
| 1st pts | 45/52 | 27/33 | 72/85 | |
| % 1st pts | 87% | 82% | 85% | |
| 2nd pts | 21/45 | 24/35 | 45/80 | |
| % 2nd pts | 47% | 69% | 56% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 3 | 1 | 4 | |
| Converted | 3/7 | 1/7 | 4/14 | |
| Converted % | 43% | 14% | 29% | |
| Conceded | 8 | 1 | 9 | |
| Saved | 6/8 | 1/1 | 7 | |
| Saved % | 75% | 100% | 88% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
Head 2 Head
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